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ORS

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Everything posted by ORS

  1. ORS
    It also doesn't show if his target is inside with a FB, he hits his target, and the batter just happens to be looking for an inside FB that he hammers. Losing out on the guessing game won't show up in the pitch charts, but it's a reality of the game. Over time, the quality of a pitcher's stuff (velocity, movement, deception) will determine how often he gets hurt when he loses out in the guessing game, or how often he gets away with a mistake. Beckett looks fine to the eye, the data on his stuff doesn't suggest any degradation of quality, and he's demonstrating the same levels of dominance (K/9, BB/9) he was during his good stretch this year. I don't think there is a problem.
  2. ORS
  3. ORS
    Just to clear things up, the press votes for the CYA, and the players vote for the GG. They are not the same group of voters. I'd suggest the press is more likely to come around to modern statistical analysis methods before players are. For one, the press receives an enormous amount of scrutiny from the blogosphere. And, the players are as guilty of Gomoronics as anyone with the "Yeah, but we PLAY the games" mentality.
  4. ORS
    I don't think this is a significant problem. His peripherals are actually quite good, but his mistakes are all getting hammered. This is similar to what happened to Lester to start the year. Lester didn't do much different, same peripherals, and his HR rate came back down to normal. The same should occur for Beckett. Just let the anomaly play itself out.
  5. ORS
    8 game setup? Interesting, what's the tie breaker?
  6. ORS
  7. ORS
    Beckett's curve looks like dung.
  8. ORS
    JFC, he's Scott Podsednik, not Stan Musial, get this light loafered forest nymph out.
  9. ORS
    Lowell with his specialty.
  10. ORS
    Kotsay's hit is of no concern if Beckett doesn't put on their #9 hitter with an HBP and walk Dye. He made that mess.
  11. ORS
    Yeah, the concept of wasting a pitch when he's up 0-2 seems to have been lost with him lately.
  12. ORS
    Yeah, he's got some tools to be very good, but he's not someone I'd give up potential talent to acquire. He can hit a little, but he has all the patience of a sailor on shore leave in a brothel at the plate.
  13. ORS
    While I agree that he has been doing that a bit more frequently lately, I'd prefer he try and play like Dustin Pedroia, the superior player.
  14. ORS
    Hawk: "Ellsworth" Really? 4th game of a series, and you can't get his name right?
  15. ORS
    You have visions of being surrounded by balls?
  16. ORS
    And he's under their control. Given their pitching, the resurgence of Konerko, the other good young players on their roster (Getz, Beckham), a full year of health from Quentin, and the acquisition of Alex Rios, plus them being a big market club, I think they have visions of competing next year, and would only move him if overwhelmed to do so.
  17. ORS
    They haven't played good against the Yankees since their cellar dwelling days. As soon as they got respectable, they started bending over for NY.
  18. ORS
    Gee, I wonder if you guys think we should inquire about his availability?
  19. ORS
    Don't waste your time. It's the first one.
  20. ORS
    No, I didn't miss your point. You were saying that style of team construction could result in false positives for park factors. I disagreed saying that smaller parks help power and power correlates to runs, ie a false positive is unlikely to occur. Now you are saying this imapct will occur over several seasons time. This is even more wrong. The bigger window of time you look at, the more likely the strong correlative factor associated with parks that allow more power to show itself in team runs scored.
  21. ORS
    This criticism is like a house with top of the line upgrades built on shoddy foundation work. It's put together well, but the component holding it up fails. SLG and OBP still have the highest correlation to runs scored of the "slash" stats. A team of mashers that get on base is going to score more than a speedy, put the ball in play type of roster, regardless of the park. And, the speedsters are going to hit more balls out in smaller parks, scoring more runs on the road, which will result in a park factor you'd expect.
  22. ORS
    In Gallego's 13 year career, he amassed more than 500 PA once. IE, he was a career backup/utility player. Alex Cora. Garbage. He was 55 runs better than replacement level over his whole career, and 53 of those came in 2 seasons. So, for 11 years, he was replacement level. Garbage. Eric Hinske has a chance to play in 3 straight WS and win 2 rings in 3 years. Every time he appeared in the lineup, a700 would moan about "Stinkske". I wouldn't place too much value on what Gallego did there.
  23. ORS
    Are you kidding? It isn't a comparison to some league average. It's a direct comparison of the home park to the other parks. You don't want the home park in the "conglomerate". It would ruin the comparison. You'd be comparing a data set to another data set that contained the original. Wrong, wrong, wrong. You are right that the assumed neutral will vary from team to team based on division, schedule, etc, but then you are missing the point in saying that this slight confounder doesn't make the stat useful. It's not intended to split hairs on a gnat's ass in terms of accuracy, it's just intended to give us a general idea of what kind of role the park plays on stat totals.
  24. ORS
    What do you mean by "...quality of pitching cancels itself out, on the road, not so much."? Their home opponents are, for the most part, the same as their road opponents. Being on the road has no effect on quality of pitching.
  25. ORS
    Why? The calculation compares their offensive contribution to the game score + their pitching contribution to game score in home vs. road parks. If they suck on offense, they suck at home and on the road. If their pitching sucks, it sucks in both places. Your conclusion appears to ignore analysis and come directly from opinion.
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