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Yeah, that's what I think too. The guy has unbelievable stuff. 96 mph fastball, 90 mph slider, 87 curve, EVERYTHING is down. He seems to pitch at the ankles. This season: 4-4, 84 IP, 61 H, 25 ER, 23 BB, 77 K, 2.67, 1.00 WHIP. His four losses: 1) 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (first pro start) 2) 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K (2-0 loss to NYY) 3) 7 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (6-3 loss to BAL) (one of two bad starts this year) 4) 3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (5-3 loss to TX) (the other bad start Notable other games: 9 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K's (3-2 loss to TEX) 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K (1-0 win vs. MIN) 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K (8-3 Win vs. MIN) 7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K (3-2 Win vs. TOR, no hitter into 7th). IP per start: 5, 8, 8, 8, 7, 8, 7, 7, 3, 7.1, 9, 7. The guy is 19 and is commonly seen as comparable to a young Dwight Gooden, except that Gooden was never as good. .

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB112925287632868400-ZDHwXHWx_1y56rUF9Pm2wlJ1dmo_20061014.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top I found this on bostondirtdogs. Its very interesting. I never thought to evaluate statistics based on which umpire is behind the plate, but it makes a lot of sense. It appears the cards were stacked against the style of baseball the sox play in general.

I pretty much agree with this. Except that Kazmir is not the best young pitcher in baseball in my book. Felix Hernandez gets that crown.

I think the sox will offer 4 years as well. The first two with pretty high salary, the last two incentive laden for more than that, but less if he does not perform.

I agreed with most of what you said, except the part about Renteria. I think you're being too hard on him.

No, I say give trot another year. I feel like he's bound to have a good season next year, if he stays healthy. Sign Papi long term now, make manny feel like he's an important part of this team and one that we're not just trying to get rid of. Our best chance to win is definitely with Ramirez in the lineup. Pedroia should be the second baseman, even if it takes him awhile to get going. The sox can use some exciting young players to mix in with the veterans. I don't think Papelbon will have an amazing year next year, but I think he'll do at least as well as Clement did this year, if not slightly better overall. He does have great stuff so I'm interested to see how he holds up over a long season; he seems like he's a horse. So the lineup for next year: Damon Pedroia Ortiz Manny Huff Varitek Nixon Youkilis Renteria Pitching: Schilling Wakefield Papelbon Clement Miller (Wells leaves, Arroyo is either in the pen or moved on). Pen: Bradford Myers Timlin Hansen Ryan (I hope) Delcarmen

Agreed completely.

Last year didn't the final four come down to the Yanks, Red Sox, Cardinals and Astros? Not really small ball teams in my opinion. I don't think we should be concerned with "the future of baseball", as baseball has been around for along time, and will be around for a long time. Small ball is nothing new, power is nothing new. What is new is the idea that its either one or the other. Look, here's the thing. I don't see any reason why everyone on the Sox except for their TWO power hitters can't play fundamentally sound baseball. It doesn't mean to never hit homeruns, it doesn't mean that they can't still score 900 runs. I think fundamentally sound baseball consists both of a) taking pitches when necessary (having good control of the plate) being able to bunt (i.e., put the ball on the ground) c) Playing decent defense d) having good (at least CONSISTENT) relievers. If a team has power to hit them in that's great. But why shouldn't guys like Damon or Renteria, Nixon, Varitek or Graffanino be able to draw walks or put down a bunt? Its not like Graffanino is some hulking beast that can hit homeruns on a whim if just told he doesn't have to bunt. Damon isn't a homerun waiting to happen, if anything he gets singles (see his SLG). So why is it so much to ask that when it matters he can bunt? Not such a big deal for millions of dollars a year. I like the "moneyball" approach. But what the Sox do isn't moneyball. In fact, its just "ball" since "money" is really, really not a factor for the sox like it was for Billy Beane. So the sox have the ability to get both fundamentaly sound players AND players who drive in the runs. Its NOT EITHER OR!!!! People that hate moneyball approaches don't understand the point of moneyball... its about getting the most out of very little money. Bang for your buck. I guarentee that if Beane had more money he would not do everything like he does. Small ball is really just an approach to make sure that you score runs. It doesn't guarantee you score a lot of runs, but ot does pretty well to give you the best chance to score a run if someone is on first, with nobody out and average hitters coming up. I don't think this is really much of a debate. The sox mix both, they have the luxury to do that. We're not going to STOP trying to do that, but we should also try to get the most out of our money.

I don't know why people pretend this is an either/or situation. THere is no reason the red sox shouldn't be fundamentally sound, able to pull off a suicide squeeze, move a runner into scoring position, take a base when necessary etc., The sox already do a decent job of sacrifice flies, hitting to the right side, etc., so its not like they have ditched all of "small ball". Ideally, we would let our bats fly for most of the season. But with two guys on and nobody out in the late innings of a tied playoff game, I have NO problem with a suicide squeeze. A good team should be good at doing both. Fundamentals shouldn't be hard to find in a team.

I've tried but I could not have put it better myself. Schill and Miller have to be better. Clement will probably do about as well as he did this year, so we shouldn't rely on him any more than we would ever rely on Arroyo. If we lose Manny then our offense is likely to not be quite what it has been the past few years. If we keep Manny we'll probably get a boost, as I imagine that Huff will be playing at first next year. That's like getting a more consistent, left handed Millar (he is basically the equivalent of a very good Millar season). If Theo is smart and patient, we can have a good shot of making the playoffs next year (which means that if we hit our stride right, we can win the WS) and be in very good shape the following year and thereafter.

Yeah, we need to start making room for our younger guys. I've heard Wells wants to leave and that we're looking at trade possibilities out West. Our rotation couldn't be WORSE and where we got hurt this year was our starting and our bullpen. If even once or twice we win (say, that horrible 9/21 loss to TB where we gave up 5 in the eigth, or 8/24 when we lost to KC in the 9th) then we may have a different season. Personally I think that if we don't mess with the offense then we're in good shape because our pitching can't be worse than it was this year. Unfortunately it really, really, really looks like Manny will do anything he can to get out of here. It is very difficult to make up for his production and Ortiz will be less protected. I don't think there's reason to be pessimistic at this point. We know that a) the sox aren't afraid to spend lots of money, MANY teams have won with less power than Manny/Ortiz and c) our pitching has to get better... it just has to. Even an average team has better pitching than we did this year (with regard to ERA). Boston was 20th in WHIP, 24th in BAA, and 25th in OPS. Even mid 90's sox teams did better than that and we're bound to get better again. We shouldn't have to deal with injuries to Schilling, Foulke, Mantai, Miller, and horrible pitching from guys like Embree.

I don't think anyone wants damon to go. I think that if he's asking for 60 million dollars over 5 years he's not going to be able to get it. If other teams offer him what he wants then its likely that he'll go there. Its sad but its the way baseball works. If the sox want to be able to compete with the Yanks they'll need to spend wisely, which means NOT spending too much money whenever possible.

I"m all FOR Papelbon starting, if that's what's best for this team. If we are under the contracts of Wells, Arroyo, Clement, Schilling and Wakefield I'm not sure who is best suited to either not be on the staff or be in the pen. We know Papelbon is a good reliever. He is probably a very good starter. We know we need both. I'm sold on Papelbon in all of his wonderful forms, but I think that we'll get another starter for next year during the offseason and be confronted with having 7 good starters. That's all.

I have literally NO problem with the prospect of getting Soriano, its just that Jimmy Carter keeps having him bat 4th and it makes no sense. If we have to lose Manny and replace him with Soriano we are not replacing one 4 hitter with another. We are getting two very different types of players suited to different spots in the order. Soriano's numbers are decieving and I believe he is horribly over rated. Does that mean he shouldn't be on the Sox? no, just not the center piece of their offense.

Please, please, please STOP with the Soriano batting 4th thing. It was nice at first, but its just craziness. Nobody cares how many stolen bases he has if he's batting 4th, but OBP and OPS are much more important. Finally, if Soriano came to Boston you would have to realize that his days of stolen bases are OVER. The sox don't believe in SB's, they aren't about to start believing in them. Soriano is the exact kind of player the front office DO NOT WANT. He has inflated power numbers, very, very, very, very (howmany times do I have to say this) poor plate discipline and is not a very good fielder. POSSIBLY as a leadoff hitter, but not ever, NEVER as a 4 hitter. Please stop.

Yeah, Wagner is clearly the better pitcher (that .84 WHIP is impressive, as is the 87 K in 77 IP) but at 9.0 million that's a LOT of money to pay. He is a proven successful closer though, so it might be worth it... could they get him for like 3 years, 26 million or so?

Yeah, and A-Rod should play short because he's better than Jeter.

Yeah, but part of the difficulty of getting a lead is scoring runs. Papelbon started a few games this year and did admirably, but he wasn't Sandy Koufax. He will be a great starter, I'm just saying that we should use him however he is needed. If we have a lot of starters under contract (as we appear to: given Schilling, Clement, Wells, Wakefield and Arroyo) then Papelbon may need to be the most flexible... especially since we want to use him as often as possible (if given the choice between Papelbon in the pen or, say, Arroyo).

VERY true. I think that even a decent starter and a good bullpen pitcher would make all the difference. I'm not sold on Papelbon as a starter next year. I think we should use him wherever he's most needed, not just based on what we HOPE he will be in the future. He will be a starter, but we may need a shut down reliever in the late-middle innings. I imagine BJ Ryan/Papelbon as left/right K guys, Hansen closing (or switch Papelbon and Hansen around). Timlin would SU or be let go of.

Do you have a source that says that Pedroia is the planned starter next year? I hope so!

That's kind of how I feel with all your silly Soriano talk. But you're right, Konerko is NOT coming to boston. Huff is a fine alternative, especially if we still have Manny. The fact of the matter is that we need a 1st baseman, not a second baseman. If we DO need a secondbaseman then Graffanino will do fine, as will Pedroia, or Cora, or Hanley. We need a good fielding, good hitting first baseman with some power and the ability to use Fenway. Huff has done very well in the past, he has good power and is a good RBI guy. He'as had 107, 104, 92 RBI seasons the past three years, on a team that doesn't tend to score that much.

There is nothing wrong with our lineup. 900 runs IS enough to win 100 games, easily, we just need to have a greater run DIFFERENTIAL which means we need a lot more PITCHING.

Sign the guy to an 11 year 30-million dollar deal, NOW. I can watch our players come and go over time, but I always get the feeling that Theo cares about what happens to the sox as much as all of us here do, and that he's smarter than all of us to boot! We've got to keep this guy, especially for the price of an infielder.

Get Ryan. Also try to get Burnett, but I doubt we'll be able to land him. Schilling Burnett Wakefield Clement Papelbon What happens to Wells? Arroyo? Miller? I think Miller could be pretty good if he has surgery and recovers fully. I'm not totally willing to give up on him yet, especially at only 1.5 million or so.

I don't think Soriano is a 4 hitter at all. In the past 3 years Soriano has had 792 AB's batting 1st, 528 batting 3rd, 544 batting 5th and 37 batting 4th. That's right, 37. Is that because he is a natural in that spot, or does Texas know something we don't? Look at the guy's numbers. You don't want a guy hitting .270 who doesn't get on base hitting 4th. Generally, I don't care what someone writes here, but it feels like the 5th time you've mentioned Soriano batting 4th and I just don't think it makes any sense. I would walk Ortiz all day to get to Soriano. That being said, your lineup of damon, rent, ortiz, soriano, huff, tek, juan, nixon and youkilis is stacked and looks like it would be fun. I would probably switch huff and soriano around though. Let's not write manny out of town though. I want Damon, Rent, Ortiz, Ramirez, Huff, Nixon, Varitek, Graff, Youkilis.