example1

He's on pace for 31 HR and 107 RBI. He's hitting .211, with a decent .312 OBP (decent only because its .100 points higher than his avg.). He will get better, but at that pace he will out-produce Manny. Youkilis Pedroia Ortiz Manny Jones Drew Lowell Varitek Lugo I don't know... nobody will mind a short-term rental if it helps the Sox win a WS, and I think it is worth noting that short term rentals pushed this team over the top in 04. If we are hoping for a trade to put this team over the top, we may have to settle for a this year solution, particularly if we hope to hold onto our top talent.

THe package I proposed was Bowden and Ellsbury though. In either case, though, if I remember correctly, Hanley was a bit of a discipline concern and had a poor year for the Sox the year that they traded him (.271/.335/.385). Sanchez was an injury concern. Ellsbury is NOT a discipline concern, and Bowden does not have injury problems. The only thing that I see separating them is 1) Position (Hanley had extra value there) and 2) time. Bowden has a really nice upside, but he needs to show it at a higher level. If he continues his progression he will likely be a better prospect than Anibel (AAA) Sanchez.

Jesus. I just don't know what to do with this team. I think they are about a year away from their top prospects being extremely productive and I think that two of them (Ellsbury and Buchholz) will contribute down the stretch. I also think this team appears to be one or two pieces away from something very special. I'm not sure where that piece should be. It feels like it should be in the batting order, but who moves? The only answers I can think of are Crisp and Lowell. Drew is powerless right now, and I can't imagine where the power would come from. His swing seems very on-base-centric, rather than slug-centric. Just some thoughts: Should the Sox overpay a team like Atlanta to get Andruw Jones as a short-term rental? Is it worth it when they are in a position to be able to go to the playoffs and potentially win it all? I would think that it is. Jones has had a down year, but he has shown signs of life and would at least be a power threat. Should the Sox offer some really complex package involving Manny Ramirez, who is both affordable and short term? How about a deal with Texas to bring Teixeira to Boston and send Manny to Texas? Anaheim (plus money) for Brandon Wood--who has been struggling--and Ervin Santana--who has REALLY been struggling? I don't know, but something needs to happen.

I started writing about how wrong you were, and how you were undervaluing Buchholz. Then I realized you were talking about Oswalt, not Lidge. Again, with the Astros-incest. Buchholz would be the centerpiece of an Oswalt deal. He would be one of the best pitching prospects traded in quite awhile. Better than Jason Hirsh or Anibel Sanchez in my opinion. Not at the level of Liriano. I could see Oswalt going to Boston. I imagine that a lot of pitchers wish they could pitch for the Sox and would gladly give up their current deal to go there, and Oswalt is one of them. How would Ellsbury/Bowden compare to Ramirez/Sanchez? Better package, worse package?

He's the kind of pitcher that I can never predict and who if I were another team would love to see on the mound. He reminds me of Kenny Rogers. Rogers has proven to be an excellent pitcher throughout his career, although I can't figure out how or why this is the case.

huh. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6913/career;_ylt=AvTJ0GWgVWSqANS.4v2BY0WFCLcF They disagree. 1.41 sounds more like it, though he's pitched well lately.

His numbers are pretty good. He still only allows an average of .211, with a 1.23 WHIP. Just about his career average. He would be a great addition, if it can be done without dealing too much of the future away.

If the Sox got Lidge they would be set with relievers for the forseeable future. We all know there will be a time when the Sox are looking for another shut down reliever, and at that time Lidge would look nice. 45 Ks in 33 IP would be nice. It might seem confusing now, but I think the Sox are very likely still thinking about Papelbon being a starter. I don't remember the article I saw--it was either here or at soxprospects or SoSH--where one of the owners (I believe Werner) said that he liked looking down the road at a rotation of Beckett, Dice, Papelbon, Buchholz and Lester. It is suprising at first, but think about it: it is easier to get a servicable closer (Todd Jones, Bob Wickman) than a dominant #2 starter. They will go after a number of veteran guys until they find a closer who fits. If that is next year, great; if it is the year after, that's fine too. They are safe keeping Papelbon as the closer if they have a deep pen with other guys to eat innings and squash rallies. Papelbon won't come anywhere close to the wear-and-tear other players his age--Dice and Beckett included--are accumulating. EDIT: Oops, also, I forgot to mention that Ellsbury is too much to give up in a deal for Lidge. Lidge isn't enough of a sure thing to deal away the relative certainty that Ellsbury will contribute to some offense and defense for many years.

I agree that there is a mental aspect to the game. A-Rod clearly isn't held back by it, or if he is then you should be asking yourself what type of player he would be if he were mentally stable, given that he is on track to become possibly the best player in baseball history. Hitting is a reaction and a habit. You have 4/10ths of a second to decide what to do. A-Rod is more than capable of using that time effectively, again, evidenced by his past success. For example, If this were the only season we had seen him, it would be VERY easy to decide that David Ortiz is a patently UNclutch performer. In the past few weeks alone I've seen time after time where he doesn't "come through". In Manny's last 5 playoff series he has hit .300, .412, .300, .385., .310. from the NYY series in 2003 to now. I'm pretty sure he is near the top in playoff HRs, RBIs, etc., in history. Before that, he was pretty bad and known as NOT being clutch. He hit a HR off of Barry Zito in the 5th game (I believe) of the ALDS, and watched it leave the yard, which pissed off the announcers. The reason I remember that is that they had just been talking about what a great hitter he is but how he just couldn't get it done in the clutch of the playoffs. It's BS. Some guys will happen to hit right away in their playoff career and become known as 'clutch', others take a little while to get to their average performance. Manny has played in a total of 81 playoff games. A-Rod has played a total of 35 playoff games. He is more than equipped to hit 4 HR in a playoff game just like he is equiped to do that in a regular season game. The dude is a baller. Regardless, though, I don't think he's coming to Boston. I think the Sox will use that as a smokescreen while they make a better deal elsewhere. You can't get a player who is better than A-Rod, but with 30 million dollars you could have Roy Oswalt, Josh Beckett and Carlos Beltran. The Yankees will overpay out of fear that the Sox will blow them out of the water again, A-Rod may or may not take it. Personally, I see A-Rod as a Cub, the pride of Mark Cuban's franchise; they will have a chummy relationship.

First of all, do people ever sit around imagining what this 07 team would be like had we traded for A-Rod a few years ago? Can you imagine a 3-4-5 of 2007 A-Rod, Ortiz, and Magglio? Yum... I am rarely influenced to believe such things, but just reading these articles and the public nature of these statements and quotes, I can't help but think that this is one time where the Red Sox are legitimately just trying to drive up the bidding for the Yankees. They trust that the Yankees will put forth an offer that blows every other team out of the water because they have to. Alex Rodriguez has the Yankees absolutely by the balls. BY. THE. BALLS. Yankees fans were horrible to him for his first few years. He was under so much pressure, largely caused by the media and crazy Yankees fans who think that championships and success grow on trees. He was analyzed because he saw a therapist, and he was critiqued for not carrying his weight when he hit 35 HR and 120 RBI. They love him now because he's one of about 2 players on the team who keep them from being wholly embarassed by their home town club (with the 200m+ payroll). I would love to have A-Rod on the Sox, but it just doesn't seem plausible. It is in the Yankees absolute best interest to keep him from the Sox. The only way they can do that is by signing him, and the Sox are going to remind them over and over about that. My estimation: the Sox will uncharacteristically be public about their desire to land A-Rod; the Matsuzaka acquisition and the prior A-Rod near-deal have given them clout enough to make other teams flinch. The Yankees have that clout too, obviously, so it is always an interesting game of chicken between the Red Sox and yankees when it comes to things like this. In this case, it is true that the Sox have enough money to buy A-Rod, but I am doubtful that he would want to play in Boston or that the Sox would spend 30 million dollars on any player. With as hard as they have tried to get out from under Manny's contract in recent years, they would be paying another 60% or so for a player who isn't going to produce that much more than 03-06 Manny. Add to that the existence of Lugo's sizeable contract (and the fact that the Sox will have to pay someone to take that on) and suddenly the Sox can't even use A-Rod at his most valuable position. The SS position is the only thing--in my view--that bumps his value up from a mid 20 million deal to a 30+ million dollar deal. If there were other options--like Miguel Cabrera, say--A-Rod at 30+ would be unthinkable. The Sox will explore those other options while barking loudly about how hard they will push to get him should he become a free-agent.

Your friend is right in that there are a whole lot of circumstancial aspects to the difference between a single and a double, or a double and a triple. There are a large number of "outlier" doubles that should have been singles, or outs, or triples. But--as ORS pointed out--over a season with thousands and thousands and thousands of ABs throughout baseball, I imagine the majority of doubles are balls hit to the gap, or down the line. They aren't flukes.

The guy might be legit, but the rumor isn't. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY they offered that much. Absolutely no way. The run statistics thing sounds interesting though, can you elaborate or get this guy to elaborate?