example1

one or two pitches before Jeter is standing on 2nd? I'm guessing 2.

That was an absurdly quick inning. I watched two plays of the Oregon vs. Cal football game, switched back just in time to see Anderson relish his opportunity to add to the team's offense by swinging weakly at the first pitch. Why is this guy playing? Oh yeah, these games don't actually matter.

Except I don't think the Yankees are going to regret overpaying for guys anymore. Any team with CC, A-Rod, Teixeira, Cano, Jeter and Rivera will be in playoff contention. They can afford to just throw a 5 year, $70m deal at him and it won't impact them at all. Remember how this past offseason how their fans (Jacko, Gom) were touting that their payroll would actually drop? It didn't, but they don't care. Very few people make the financial advantage argument very clearly, and I think too many Sox fans just let it go. The fact is that this team DOES have financial constraints, whether Jacko or Gom or a700 want to believe it. Yes, they have a shitload of money, OUR money (I pay for mlb games on my computer, I go to some games, etc.,) but that doesn't mean that they should let all financial considerations go out the window. NY and BOS are completely different markets, no matter how many fans the Sox have it won't match the NY Metro area, and their worldwide drawing power.

Until I have reason to believe otherwise, I'm going to call him Aroldis Contreras. If he's 21 then he should be treated the same way as Tazawa was--don't pay him too much, let him perform in the minors to see what you have. If he's 28 then he should not be signed for anything huge. If he could be signed for a reasonable amount then a fallback could be for him to be the lefthanded version of Daniel Bard out of the pen, which would be fantastic. Of course, if he's available for a reasonable price then the Yankees will overpay to ensure they get him and Boston doesn't.

What the f*** is Lowell swinging at? Same thing they were doing yesterday. It's ABs like that that make me think this team isn't as good as many think they are. I still think that getting to the post-season is a victory in itself and that this FO has a lot of work to do in the offseason. They need to get a player who brings some swagger. Currently they have a lot of the "blue collar" guys, and some flashy guys, but they don't have anyone who strikes fear into the hearts of opponents (offensively at least).

The only way the Sox pitching can beat the Yankees (or any pitching can beat them, IMO) is to let them hit it to where fielders are waiting. Hopes of overpowering them or nibbling need to go out the window. For that reason, I think that newly revamped Buchholz and Matsuzaka could give the Sox a fighting chance.

I promised a700 that I wouldn't write about him until the offseason. Now, whenever his name comes up and I want to contribute, I don't use his name. Harry Potter was in a similar situation with his friends re: Voldamort. A700 really got upset whenever his name came up, so I stopped using it. It's nerdy and unnecessary, but I want to respect a700 (and confuse newbies).

Offensively they're not as good. Defensively I think they're better and I'd rather have this team's pen. Closer than any other team, IMO, both by results and by record overall this season. These teams are basically built to beat one another, year after year. Quite possibly. Hopefully one is Jason Bay, and maybe the other comes via trade. As for pitchers, I don't think this team will be able to overcome the Yankees (at least for the AL East) without acquiring another good SP. It depends on what day you get them, but they are able to knock around great pitchers. They might be, but the Yankees stand in their way. If the Yankees aren't, then nobody is. They are absolutely championship caliber.

I think the only chancde the Sox have is for the Yankees to lose to the TIgers in the first round. The Sox starters and bullpen will really need to get some help from the offense to make any playoff series close, and this team isn't the same club offensively as the clubs in 07 or 04. That said, I think this team is very, very close to being able to beat this Yankees team, which is saying A LOT. This is the first of the Yankee teams this decade that actually lives up to the hype demanded of a $200m+ payroll team. I think they will win the WS and will obviously be in contention next year. At the same time, if the Sox are able to add another SP (Wakefield retires, John Lackey as a #5 please?) and another bat or two, then I think they're right back there with the Yankees. At this point, though, the Yankees are the better team because of their amazing offense.

I hate the f***ing Yankees. I hate them so very, very much.

That could be the make or break moment for the season. Lester goes down.

He simply isn't getting ahead in the count and is throwing way too many breaking balls in the dirt. He either needs to get those pitches over or start attacking with his FB on the first pitch. They won't swing at bad pitches out of the zone, so just stop it.

Get ahead in the count Jon. The game isn't over.

I don't think Buchholz will go back to being a mediocre pitcher again. His performance this year isn't coming out of nowhere; these results are much more on-par with what he has produced at every level than his poor starts last year were. His command is much better and he really does have more confidence in his FB than he did last year or two years ago. He's added about 2mph to his FB and he's throwing his slider more and seems to understand how to best utilize his slider given his other weapons. The kid is very, very good. There should be no doubt why his name was the first on every other team's list in trade talks. The thing that has surprised me the most is how he's moved away from the strikeout and is pitching more to contact. His ability to change speeds will get him a lot of weak pop flies and groundballs and take a lot of his tendency to nibble away. I think his next step of development will be him adding the strikeout back into his repetoir in certain starts. I expect him to be a 200+ K pitcher within 2-3 seasons.

You are overrating him. He's 28-14 with 4 series sweeps and 2 World Series. That's pretty mediocre. And it was just a crapshoot. He had no control over how to use the bullpen in 04's games 4 and 5 (many extra innings) when the game was on the line against such a great offense. He was lucky. And his team was so good it basically managed itself.

I think this team runs the risk of trying to get the superior player, being blown out by the Yankees and having Bay realize that he's less than the team's first choice and decide to go elsewhere. It seems like exactly the type of perfect storm bad scenario that this FO could find itself in. Unless they know that they can get Holliday they should do everything they can to get Bay. They won't regret it. They might regret it if they try to get Holliday and don't get either.

Elaborate please. When else has he done something like this? I see this as a poor decision that ultimately didn't kill the team. I haven't seen him do it since. That said, if he chooses to bring in Jon Lester or Josh Beckett late in a game against the Yankees in game 7 of the ALCS this year instead of, say, Manny Delcarman are you going to rake him over the coals? Pedro is a hall of fame pitcher. He didn't bring in John Burkett as the stopper. It was Pedro Martinez. I'm getting too into your argument though. This is the one example that you bring up which we all agree with anyway, but it was 5 years ago and the WON the game. Please highlight other examples that back up your point. I simply don't see him making stupid decision after stupid decision, certainly no more than could be found from other managers in similar situations. I have yet to see anything that backs up him being overrated, other than claims that other managers win everywhere they go and he didn't. Of course, those other managers actually DON'T win everywhere they go, we just like to have selective memories and pretend that they do. Ron Gardenhire? Really?

Hardy could be a really good addition to the team because he offers both a nice glove and the chance to hit a HR. That said, I just don't like the idea for some reason. I don't like his injury history, I don't like his low-OBP and I'm not sold on him being a great fielder. The numbers definitely say that he is, and even some digging on my own shows that he really is a pretty good fielder. He's been in the top 5 in UZR/150 over the past few years, which shows some real consistency. It doesn't appear to be a fluke and I believe it is considerably more comprehensive than my eyes could tell me. It would definitely matter what the Sox would have to do to get him. I'm still rooting for a deal to bring a great player to Boston as a SS, or for Jed Lowrie to step up and be better than he has been. If neither of these things seems possible then Hardy would be as good defensively as Gonzalez and there's no way he'd be worse on offense, even if he slumps horribly.

I almost posted a longer explanation for what I wrote above, but I didn't at the time. I think the part that is missing in the WARP measurements isn't the speed on the bases, but rather the different situations confronted by the other team with that speed on the bases. It may mean paying more attention to the man on 1B, getting into more inopportune counts against Pedroia and V-Mart, or making the defense less aggressive. I don't think it has a huge impact on overall value (and hence could be confused as having a null-value) but I'm willing to bet most managers would rather have those factors than not have those factors with a man on first base. It is my perception that Red Sox pitchers have tended to pitch more visably rattled with Crawford or Figgins on base than Pena or Polanco. That's a factor that is missed and which is consistent as long as he's not hurt. I belive that 1) Ellsbury's WARP is a pretty accurate reflection of his overall value and 2) that WARP does as well as any other number to provide a comprehensive look at a player's value added. I'm not so sure that I trust that the defensive metrics capture everything that Ellsbury does in CF because my gut reaction tells me he is a good fielder. That may mean that he only does exceptionally well in particular areas, akin to Alex Gonzalez, and I manage to blank-out the things he doesn't do so well--this is entirely possible. Gonzalez isn't the most mobile shortstop but he makes the plays that come right at him, even the very difficult ones. Ellsbury isn't the guy I want leaping at the wall for a catch, or gunning a guy down at home, but he is the guy I want diving for a sinking shot to centerfield and I do trust him to make most of the routine plays hit his way. Ellsbury won't become a top tier player until he can get his OBP into the .365-.380 range. If he can ever get there then he will be a very good overall addition.

A reclaimation project I could see the Sox inquiring about would be Rich Harden. He's injury prone, but who wouldn't rather have him on the mound than Paul Byrd? He's going to be 28 and still had 171 K in 141 IP--a pretty impressive K rate. In his 212 IP with the Cubs over the past two seasons he's got a 3.31 ERA. He could be a nice pick up for a team that can keep his innings down.