example1

2009 WARP: Pena: 3.2 Ortiz: 0.6 My preference would be neither, honestly.

One more thing about the BOS-SEA discussions re: Felix (then I'm done until the offseason)... I don't think there's any way the Sox can let him get to free agency. I think it is imparative that he be signed longterm before the Yankees can get their hands on him. CC + Felix for 5 years = certain 2nd place. Aggressively pursuing him would pay off by keeping him from inevitably ending up in NY.

Clearly... thanks for that contribution. It seems pretty far fetched to me, but it is related to this topic vis-a-vis Youks moving to 3rd when the Sox acquire Lou Gehrig to play 1B.

A few things to add to this discussion: 1. I think it only fair to look at the WARPs in terms of what one could reasonably expect from Dice-K and Lowell and Felix, not Dice-K's horrible year. This year should be an anomoly (even if he's only a mid-rotation starter, he should get 2.5-3 WARP) 2. Felix is getting better, so this year should be more the norm for him 3. WARP isn't the only factor. Cost should also be taken into account. Felix will be able to command a whole lot of money, I'm speculating that he'll push $20m a year (especially if the Yankees have anything to say about it). Once he's making FA money (either from Seattle resigning him or after he's been a FA) his value goes way down. He will continue to contribute a high WARP (I suspect) but that will be an expectation, rather than a good deal--if that makes sense. CC Sabathia doesn't have the option of putting up a nice WARP, it isn't something that would be 'nice' if he did, it is something he HAS to do to even come close to justifying his price. Felix will be there quickly. 4. When looking at WARP/$$, adding prospects quickly shifts the balance, especially marquee prospects like Kelly and Westmoreland. If Westmoreland becomes a 4-5 WARP player at MLB minimum salary then any deal he's involved with quickly goes in Seattle's favor, regardless of how good Felix is. 5. Fortunately, Boston can afford to do that lopsided deal because Felix is the kind of guy who could put them over the top or keep them on top (depending on how you look at it), and he 'only' takes up one roster spot. Just things to keep in mind. WARP is important, but it needs to be combined with cost when considering that teams like Seattle (and Boston) care about their payroll.

He looks less overpowering than he did in the past, but his stuff looks much more refined. He's a better pitcher, less of a thrower. His slider has been really impressive and his two-seamer is very hard for righties to contend with. He seems to have the same type of well-rounded repetoire that Lester does, more offerings than Josh Beckett has. He can work inside to lefties and righties and his slider becomes the strikeout pitch that the changeup is to lefties. I'm hopeful that he will be a wild card in the playoffs for this club. Either way, he's absolutely the future of this club's pitching staff with Jon Lester. I think it is reasonable to think that Buchholz could actually be better than Lester, but that may be wishful thinking because Lester is so damn good.

My sense is that if Joba can't hit 95 consistently as a pampered starter at this age then there's either something wrong with him or he's in bad shape. I can't find many good comparables to Joba; the ones who are listed at B-R are mostly relievers (Joel Zumaya being the most similar). It reaffirms my view that this guy is a reliever pretending to be a starter for a little while until Mariano leaves. I'm actually a bit shocked that Joba has looked as mediocre as he has this season. I really expected good things of him, but he's been disappointing (or making me happy, depending on how you look at it). That velocity drop (as Kilo pointed out) is both alarming and consistent. I think it is only blind optimism that leads people to think that he's just saving up his arm strength. Perhaps that's true, but wouldn't the 97 mph fastball still rear its head in big situations? His lack of command isn't a good sign, especially since he's actually more experienced now than he was a few years back. Overall, I wouldn't be super excited if I were a Yankee fan. I would much rather have Buchholz moving forward, until they move Chamberlain into the bullpen.

He would be a good defensive 3B, not great. His bat and OPS would still be fine. He's a natural hitter and someone any lineup would want to have, so keeping himself afloat at 3B would be more than adequate. Assuming he moves to 3B because there is a power-hitting 1B on the team I'd say it is a no-brainer and something that makes Youkilis uniquely skilled and valuable for this team.

It doesn't matter if he can hit if he fields like Ozzie Smith. If he's as good a defender as people think he is then he can contribute very quickly to the MLB club and really cement their up the middle defense. With Iglesias and Ellsbury (or Lin or Fuentes or Westmoreland, etc.,) up the middle this team should be a really solid club defensively. I don't care what the defensive metrics say, Ellsbury tracks down balls as well as anyone. His arm leaves a lot to be desired, but that isn't the case with other CFs in the system (especially Lin). I think the club only has room for one "all glove, no hit" player, but that could be at SS or in CF and they would be okay. EDIT: in 1985 Smith hit .276/.355/.361. He was also 83 FRAR and 50 FRAA and put up a 10.4 WARP. For a point of reference, Mark Teixeira has never put up a 10+ WARP season, and neither has Manny Ramirez. Players can absolutely contribute huge wins to a team without much of a bat. I'm pretty excited about this guy.

I think it is important to point out that Clay should continue developing into his body. Currently he's pretty lean, but that won't last. We've seen the impact that putting on size has done for Lester's velocity and I expect that Buchholz will have a similar trajectory. Clay is built to be a starting pitcher. Joba isn't very lean.

I looked at seasonal averages from fangraphs. I think Joba is going to be a very good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to have the makings of a great starter. To me he just screams elite setup man.

This shouldn't be too hard to conceptualize fellas. We have already had an immensely productive and simultaneously lazy and unmotivated guy with a last named "Ramirez". He puts up good numbers, he seems like someone any team would want, yet the team he's on doesn't see it that way. That's a warning sign to me. I wonder if he's going to always be that "great player/not great leader" type player that teams will overpay for. His value (as a power-hitting SS) should be very, very high (like Jeter money). However, his personality and approach to the game reminds me more of Alfonso Soriano than a HOF-caliber player. A good player but maybe not someone the Sox should be thinking about building their franchise around.

Since the all-star break the Red Sox have three of the AL's top fifteen hitters in SLG, and four in the top twenty-five. None of them are David Ortiz. He's definitely not the hitter he was a few years ago and unfortunately his area of biggest decline is in his average. Interestingly, his IsoD is still .092--better than it was in 2002, 2003 or 2004. He is a more disciplined hitter this year than he was in those years, and it shows in his walk totals. However, he can't seem to make contact as well so his average has plumeted, thus killing his OBP and his OPS. He still manages to hit the ball hard when he hits it but he's not anywhere near the threat he used to be. Catching-wise this team will benefit from having VMart at catcher and looking to upgrade themselves on the corners moving forward. They should resign Martinez to 3 years with an option for the 4th at $12m/yr. He's on pace to make $7m next year, so that's an immediate $5m raise and 3 years of $12m on top of that. He's a good hitter and is consistent, either as a 1B or a C, and should be moving forward.

Kendry Morales? :harhar:

a700 and I have gone at it numerous times. In a lot of ways we are polar opposites who see the world very differently. I hope that, to some degree, it is a model of how other people can have hard discussions without it getting too ugly. Generally, one of us gets insulted by something the other says. We then spar for awhile about whether the offense was valid or not and then agree that we like each other enough to not let us say more than we should. We crack some jokes, put in a smiley face or two, and 5-pages later we either end the discussion or it goes in another direction. Par for the course. I always leave knowing that we will inevitably spar again soon.

I'm not convinced that he will come back great this year. I think he still has plenty left in the tank for next year but I would bank on Buchholz being the better starter right now. In fact, I don't believe Dice will be much better than Smoltz or Penny would have been. If he comes back and is even average then that's a great win for the Sox down the stretch.

You called me self-righteous and you called me bigoted. Later you said Bigotry isn't a benign thing. Wikipedia (and you can find it other places): "A bigot is a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices, especially one who regards or treats members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance.[1] Bigotry is the corresponding mindset or action. The term bigot is often misused to pejoratively label those who merely oppose or disagree with the devotion of another. The correct use of the term, however, requires the elements of obstinacy, irrationality, and animosity toward those of differing devotion." By this definition (and all other definitions you will find) my statements do not fit the category. You are just plain wrong. I am preaching neither hatred nor intolerance. I did not say the Mariners should only hire Japanese players, nor did I say they would be better by doing so. I'm saying there is a benefit for them hiring a particular player, one of those benefits being that he will make them more money in a market they currently have a foothold in (whereas other teams do not). I'm done arguing with you. I may have said an improper statement about your age, for that I apologize. I don't think it was inaccurate relative to the rest of the ages on this board, but I take it back. Your refering to my post as racist and biggoted is something that definitely deserves an apology too. It was neither racist (about Japan, a country not a race) nor biggoted (it wasn't hateful or discriminatory). I will wear white after labor day, however.

I'm actually thinking that Paulus looks pretty good as a QB. He's got good speed, a good arm and seems to have good composure in the pocket.

They're playing above their head. Russell Branyon has been a monster out of nowhere and they got some of the best pitching anyone could possibly hope for from Washburn. They are not as good as the Angels and they are not as good as the Rangers. One pitcher simply will not make the difference. I'm not pretending that they don't have the money. I'm saying that the type of absurdely lopsided deal I hypothisized about would be FAR BETTER, and FAR MORE VALUABLE than simply resigning Felix Hernandez. As the Mariners you would turn down: Felix Hernandez (and 2 years of arbitration) for Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Lars Anderson, Danial Bard, Michael Bowden, Ryan Kalish and Dice-K? Seriously? That would be foolish. They considered the deal seriously, especially when Theo brought the Padres and Adrian Gonzalez into the discussion. I have no reason to believe that Theo would go barking up a nonproductive tree for as much time as he supposedly did--and then subsequently talk about having set up the groundwork for a deal that could potentially happen in the offseason--if there were no reason. How is Adrian Gonzalez +, or Dice-K plus the 6 prospects listed a "less than perfect return?" They would trade one pitcher for the top 30% of the Red Sox farm system. How can you say this without knowing what they would get in return? Every player has a value. Pujols could be had for a deal involving Felix and Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez and Papelbon. They're only "better off" if the return they get doesn't match Felix's production on the field against his financial cost. And if Felix gets injured at any point in the next 8 years they're spending 20% of their salary on a s*****, injured pitcher. I think they'd prefer to take the 7 players above and have Boston take that risk. Ichiro is their most notable and beloved player and he is a hall of famer who was essentially a free agent. There is a very good chance that Seattle could be tempted to NOT pay Felix CC Sabathia-type money. After this discussion started I read the most recent SI article that lists Felx as a potential moving piece this year. It isn't naive speculation, it is a realistic possibility. They were not in better shape before having dealt for Bedard. They've been in rough shape for a number of years.

You may want to be more careful of your "fantasic post" usage if you don't want to be supporting a700's absurd theories. He called my claim a racist one and you agreed. THE PARALLELL THAT A700 SHOULD HAVE BROUGHT UP WAS NOT ABOUT AN IRISH PLAYER OVER DAVID ORTIZ. IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN THAT BOSTON WOULD HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO BE INTERESTED IN A LOCAL HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE BASEBALL STAR BECAUSE PEOPLE FROM MASS ARE ATTACHED TO HIM. It is as clear as that. It has nothing to do with race or hiring practices and everything to do with basic economics. A700 is flaming and he should be stopped. He's a menace! Are the Twins racist or participating in illegal hiring practices because they want to keep Joe Mauer, a St. Paul native? Is that bigoted? Answer me that

It would have helped keep things on track if you hadn't immediately agreed that the Mariners ownership group being interested in bringing Dice-K to Seattle for numerous reasons (including his popularity in Japan) was racist. A700: "that is officially racist" DIPRE: "THANK YOU. FANTASTIC POST" Example1: "Japanese isn't a race, therefore, not racist" A700: "it is officially illegial hiring practices, just as bad as racist" Example1: "it is among a number of reasons they would hire him, not the main one" A700: "You are a bigot and I like getting you upset because you're liberal" Example1: "Pointing out that someone else does something that is racist is not the same as being racist. You were wrong about the racist thing to begin with and now you're shooting the messenger." A700: "Stop being defensive. You're a bigot. It's okay, sometimes everyone is a bigot. Watch you back track, stupid liberal. Ha ha, he wouldn't shut up when I wanted to change the subject, so I'll start calling him horribly offensive names under the pretext of my feigned outrage that a Japanese ownership would be interested in promoting a native son in his native homeland" I would LOVE to drop the discussion about the racism and being bigoted. It has no place in this otherwise rational discussion about varied interests that teams have when making personnel decisions. .