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Reasons to be really optimistic about the next 4-5 years. Does anyone believe this is Lester's ceiling? I don't. He had a 5.6 WAR in 2008 and 2009 and is on pace to out do that this year. He is dominating against very good teams. Likewise, I think Buchholz is still figuring himself out as a pitcher. His K's have dropped with his new-found effectiveness, which makes me think that they have emphasized having him use his repetoire to get outs rather than K's. When he puts the stuff together with a deeper confidence in it, I imagine the K's to rise again. Both of those guys seem to have really healthy trajectories to me and two pitchers like that at the same time is what dynasties are made of. I think that's part of Theo's thinking too.

yeah, inexcusably frustrating losses night after night. They don't have the bullpen depth to do what needs to be done here. i don't blame the team as much as I blame unfortunate injuries. Having Youilis and Pedroia (and V-Mart and Ellsbury and others throughout the season earlier) would have been a big boost. Frustrating.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say there is minimal market for either. fortunately, there's just one season left of both, so no biggie.

I've been thinking about the Kalish comparison for awhile. On the low side I think the Sox have at least a Gabe Kapler on their hands in Kalish. On the top side (and I mean the "everything breaks right and he maxamizes his potential like Pedroia did" side) the player he reminds me most of is actually of OF Chase Utley. Good defender, very good speed, makes consistently solid contact, good pop off his bat. Before the Yankee fans and cynical Sox fans rip me for that comparison, take a look at Utley's minor league numbers. Kalish is younger than Utley was when he came up and has better OBP and AVG (marginally). The Sox are very high on this kid--his AAA manager has used the words "future superstar", and I don't think that is because they see him as another Gabe Kapler.

I'm not sure if they felt that Millar was a better defender or if they simply chose to let Ortiz focus on hitting and avoiding injury via the DH. When you're talking about poor defenders no matter what, yet one of them is the cornerstone of your offense and the other is not, I would put the cornerstone in the DH spot too. I'm totally indifferent on the Delgado move. Don't hate it, not excited about it.

Beltre and Martinez both seem like the more difficult players to replace. A switch-hitting catcher who can also play 1B, and a power-hitting, gold glove 3B. I don't see any obvious C or 3B candidates over the next 2 years, either through development or in FA. Projecting 3 years ahead I can imagine a few prospects who could fill those positions, but over the short-term it is hazy. Ortiz is a different story. His bat is valuable but he locks up a roster spot. This is a franchise that likes to maxamize its resources and their roster flexability has been hindered by having one of the only pure DH's in the league. They have some important aging veterans (Youkilis and Drew) who would benefit from having regular rests at DH. Having Ortiz makes that more difficult. I bet Ortiz gets offered what they want to pay him (2 yrs/$14m total?) If he leaves they open a spot and are assured of not getting into a bad contract. The Sox could offer Victor Martinez 4 years, $40m and he might be happy with that. It would make him the third highest paid catcher in baseball behind Mauer and Posada and give him some security for a few years. Between C, 1B and DH they could afford to move him around and could even end his role as catcher altogether if they are able to upgrade at that position. Martinez has a .842 OPS since 2005. He's clearly a good MLB hitter and would be valuable as a DH and 1B if he got a lot worse defensively. He would only be 35 when the contract ended. Beltre's spike in offensive production concerns me, but he's a 3-5 WAR player every year because of his defense. He could command $10m per-year too. All in all (chance of resigning): Martinez (50%) Beltre (20%) Ortiz (20%)

Okay, I'm a fair person and someone who does not say these things lightly. I think Beltre and Ortiz are juicing. There. I said it. The financial payoff for these guys is worth the potential embarassment of being caught. Both are FAs, both had miraculous turn arounds when it mattered the most. I don't like thinking that and I hope I'm wrong, but it is simply too suspicious.

I think there's absolutely a way to keep Gonzalez without moving Kalish or Iglesias. I was under the assumption that they would have moved Ellsbury in that deal, along with other players. Gonzalez might be an elite player but they're not selling him 1.5 years early (a la Teixeira from the Rangers to the Braves). They'd be selling him 1 year early, or one playoff run less. I would offer Ellsbury, Anderson, Doubront + one. If they wanted much more then San Diego can just watch as the Sox blow others out of the water for Gonzalez after the season and they get nobody. I put Kalish in CF because this was under the assumption that Crawford was on the team. Maybe Crawford plays CF, maybe it's Cameron with Drew at DH and Kalish in RF. I don't think it matters that much. I worry about Cameron's health and offensive production, but he's a fine CF.

I bet the Sox will try to split the DH spot between V-Mart and Drew next year and will have Kalish on the big club. I too would love to see them sign Crawford. They will have money to spend and taking his 3-5 WAR away from Tampa should be a top priority. I'm guessing that NYY will be going after him pretty aggressively too and if they want him, they can get him. The Yankees obvious first priority will be pitching and they could very well be coming off another WS championship. If that's the case I think there's a chance that they might see Crawford as a luxury that they can live witout, perhaps in favor of a Jason Werth or someone like that. I keep hearing comparisons between Kalish and Trot Nixon, but I don't think Nixon ever had the speed that Kalish has. Kalish has 30 SB potential over a full season (averaged 37.52 SB/162 G in minors), whereas Nixon topped at a season high of 8 in 2000. Kalish will have 8 before the all-star break. I think Kalish's ceiling is pretty high and he's who they have slotted to take the next OF opening. That could mean rotating him in the OF next year if Jacoby is still around and they sign a LF, or it could mean starting him if they just want to give him the shot to take the LF position. I see no reason to have a guy like Eric Patterson around if Ryan Kalish can contribute consistently.

Yeah, I think San Diego will be entertaining offers this off-season. Gonzalez is a natural fit for the Red Sox: they have a deep system that is virtually untouched in 12 months and they have a need for a masher in his prime. They may need to get that player one way or another next off-season, so if Boston overpays but says they won't be offering at the trade deadline, I imagine Jed Hoyer would at least listen. If Hoyer is like Theo then we can expect him to always have an ear open for offers if losing the player is inevitable. I agree with Palodios; Ellsbury, Lars and Doubront plus one (Reddick?, Nava?, Fife? Weiland?) would be a really solid place to start for the Sox.

The interesting thing will be after 2011. There's no doubt in my mind that they plan on signing him one way or another for 2011 unless they can deal him first. There's no reason to NOT have Papelbon, just as there's no reason to NOT have Ellsbury. There are however other people who can do their jobs on this club and there may not be on other clubs who are willing to pay more to have them. He's not going to regress himself out of being an effective pitcher. He's got an ability to get MLB hitters out most days. I personally just think Bard is a better pitcher. He's had to learn how to pitch, starting over completely with his stuff. His FB is lights-out and his slider is too and he's shown flases of an effective changeup. If he's healthy for the next few years he will be a tremendous force as a set-up man or closer. Unlike Papelbon, he may be willing to look at a longterm deal in a year or two that helps the club out financially.

I think we can agree that this FO is not the type to trade away Papelbon (or any good player) for a poor return. I'm assuming that if he is traded--whenever that may be--the return will be good.

The question isn't whether Papelbon is a valuable reliever for this team. He is. The question is how much they could get for him if they dealt him now. As a good closer on a team that has another closing candidate already, and a certain Type A free agent, he is worth something, probably very good minor league talent. That could then be swung in another deal, or could be developed with a bunch of other talent onto the big club.

I always liked Ramirez too. The way Theo described the deal, it's another longterm move. Turpen is a side armish righty with some upside, but may have the ability to be this team's 4th or 5th option out of the pen for the next few years. I think of a role similar to that of Chad Bradford. Bring in a guy with funkiness to his delivery and hope to turn conventional platoons and matchups on their head. It's a useful role to be played. Ramirez is an impressive arm though. To me he just looked like he tired from about 2/3 of the way through the season last year thru this year. When they first got him I thought he had a chance to be a very good reliever, but his arm just looks tired. My initial impression is that the Sox are giving up the better player, but when age, retention and long term needs are taken into account I can see this working out for the Sox.

I don't know how I miss these gems. You are quick to downplay the quality of the offenses the Sox do well against, but then talk about AJ Burnett having turned it around after he has some good starts against Oakland, KC and CLE? I don't need to find the quote, you know you did, and yet here we are, passing through Double Standardville. Next stop, Hipocracy Junction.

Such a non-shocking end.