example1

I think Kalish/Nava/Ellsbury/Drew/Cameron is a good OF overall, but I wouldn't hate a Kalish/Werth/Ellsbury/Drew/Cameron OF either. I'd rather they do something more creative than signing aging veterans (i.e., trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, etc.,) but if they see the right players I hope they will sign them quickly and get their desired targets.

Yeah, but he has the right to look for a multi-year deal at some cost and I'm not sure the Sox want that. One year might be the only appealing option for the Red Sox, so the price might be fixed at $12.5m.

Jon Lester has the potential to be a truly dominant pitcher for a long, long time. Here's a quote from an article at MLB that puts his performance today (vs. Seattle) and his season into perspective: http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100913&content_id=14629322&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

On a good team Dunn hurts them by playing defense. With enough money and some convincing perhaps he could be shown that. Other teams should pay him less f he demands to play 1B or a COF spot. Seriously. Which contending AL team would consider Dunn's glove to be an upgrade at 1B, LF or RF? There might be one or two, but not many (I can't think of one, but remain open to the possibility that there is one). Dunn either needs to agree to play elsewhere or play for a non-contending team. With enough money and the promise of rings Dunn would be stupid to resist being a DH with occasional stints at 1B, or LF at home.

This thread title seems most appropriate for this comment... Anyone notice that David Murphy is hitting 3rd on a playoff contending team playing on national television against the Yankees toward the end of the season? I don't totally get it based on his abilities, but it does say something about even the value of seemingly marginal players many of us consider not good enough to start for the Sox. It is a good example of why Theo be reluctant to include a player at the level of a Josh Reddick or Felix Doubront as a "throw in" in a trade? Those guys could easily become mid-order bats or useful playoff starter for other contending teams.

Is Francona afraid that Lackey will hurt him if he pulls him? Bard was ready, now Lackey has been hit sufficiently. Take his ass out.

a) it wasn't a blowout the whole time Oregon is exciting c) I live in Oregon d) all of the above The answer is d.

Goddamn it. I switch over to start watching the game and Lackey is pitching well. I switch back and Ellis ties it up. Back to Oregon vs. Tennessee.

How exciting for that team's fanbase! Oakland, here he comes.

Weren't you ranting and raving a few weeks ago? Seems like a solid plan. Even with Beltre's contract year tendencies, he has put up pretty consistently good WARs due to his defense alone. The Sox should pay him for something between his offensive production of 2010 and his production of 2008 and 2009, with the assumption that he will be one of the game's best defensive 3B regardless. I hope he would sign for 4 years/$52m, and I think that might be a bit of a $$ stretch for the Sox but it could be inevitable. Beltre doesn't really excite me as a player, but 3B appears to be the most difficult position to find right now and they shouldn't let him get away. All season I have had visions of Beltre going to Anaheim and leading them to the playoffs next year. Don't know why, but it seems like if the Sox don't want him another playoff contender will. They should also dock Beltre's pay for every Sox OF that he injures with his elephant-like charges after flyballs.

This is a tough one. Overall I would too, but should they really spend $2m on the guy when they would have guys like Kalish, Reddick and Nava all sitting around, especially Nava, for less? Generally I'd say that's chump-change, but this team has been against the luxary tax and might as well not spend the money. I like Darnell but roster spots are limited and Nava or Kalish have probably earned a spot.

So, resign Beltre, sign Dunn, let Ortiz go then? Resigning V-Mart seems like a separate discussion. Ellsbury Pedroia Dunn Youkilis V-Mart (?) Beltre Drew Scutaro Kalish Or without V-Mart Ellsbury Pedroia Dunn Youkilis Drew Beltre Saltalamacchia Scutaro Kalish Personally, I would love to find a way for Youkilis to bat 3rd and Dunn 4th, because Youkilis would still be this team's best overall hitter, but the L/R/L/R might take higher priority.

When did Keith Law join the site?

This is a dead discussion and has been for weeks. A nice season does not equal Cy Young contention.

Resigned or picking up his option? This FO isn't going to be fooled into thinking he's one of the game's best producers anymore. They aren't stupid. It is simply too little versatility for tha tmuch money. If Papi wants, say, 30m for 3 years and Dunn wants 39m for 3 years that's just too much money for two DHs who really can't do anything else. As you note, they would be even more shorthanded against lefties. I don't see it happening. Dunn is a younger version of Papi. He is basically Papi 3-4 years ago. Ortiz's slumps and struggles against lefties make him a real question mark in my mind. Dunn wouldn't be intended to be a replacement for Ortiz per-se (a la Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder). He would be intended to be another consistent producer in the middle of the order and should be paid like it (not like those other guys). I'm not totally sold on Dunn being the answer, but if they were going to resign Ortiz for multiple years I would prefer Dunn. Signing neither and getting someone better through trade or FA would be preferable.

I'm growing skeptical about the Sox really picking up Ortiz's option. Not for that much. For that much they should offer Ortiz a team-friendly, 2 year-$8m deal and if he turns them down, approach FA with the intent of, among other things, making a strong push for Adam Dunn--if he's willing to DH. He's been a very consistent producer at near .900 OPS every season, with a high OBP (.381 career). The last time he was available he didn't seem to get much interest. I'm not sure why that was; maybe it was because that was the same offseason as Teixeira's FA, who a lot of teams were disappointed by. By comparison Dunn felt like the knock-off. He probably is, overall. The Sox need an offensive overhaul and have money to spend. Replacing Ortiz with Dunn would be an interesting place to start to shake things up. He wouldn't have to be the main offensive piece, just an offensive producer for the length of the contract. He's been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball since 2004 and is only going to be 31.

I take Drew because I think this team is better off finding a replacement for Ortiz who can also offer something else (i.e., fielding, baserunning, etc.,) that can boost the value of another position. Depending on the options I might not take either and would use the money for Beltre or V-Mart.

Yeah, stupid Theo doesn't know what he's doing. I think the 2010 team had a lot more potential than you are indicating. If the Yankees lost the equivalent in talent you would be asking for a re-do, not saying they were fundamentally unable to compete from the outset.

Yep. I think FanGraphs is better than Jackos value system. Duh. Jacko weakly looked at other players with roughly the same OPS and their cost and said that was roughly their value. We need not explain to a doctor why that's a weak argument. However, if we need to then 1) make sure to cancel all of my future appointments with the doctor and 2) there are numerous reasons, including the random nature of the salaries those players get (Matt Hollidays value is suddenly the amount the Cardinals were willing to pay? Nick Markakis's value is suddenly what the Orioles were willing to pay a player who has yet to reach FA?) All of this presupposes that other teams are paying their players accurately and the Red Sox are not. It also shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what seems to be a cardinal rule of valuing players; namely, FAs are worth different things to different teams based on what the wins they offer will provide for that team. A-Rod's $20m+ salary for Texas wasn't worth it if the team finished in last place, but it is worth it for the Yankees if it pushes them over the threshold into the playoffs year in and year out. We've been over this before and it is a pretty well established way of thinking about player value. Also, lets stop using OPS as some sort of equivalent measure between players. We all know that one point in OBP is more valuable than one point in SLG, right? Or do we need to go over that again? I think there's a lot of conflated arguments here. Saying that Drew has been worth $14m isn't the same as saying that he is worth $14m (as in "he will continue to produce at $14m" or "he will assuredly be worth $14m"). In my eyes, the fact that he has "only" been worth an average of $14m means that his contract has been an even-sum game for the franchise, not a net win or loss. I would bet that given the opportunity again they wouldn't offer that much, knowing what they know now. They want net gains from their players, not neutral outcomes.

It might be overrated as a main tool, but I think there's a reason that Theo has put a lot of stock into drafting players for whom speed is a major tool. All things being equal, you want guys with speed. Being slow never benefits anyone. Also, I assume your statment is premised on the idea of getting value back for Ellsbury, not trading him at any cost, right?