example1

Dude, I was being facetious in the face of your scenario, in which the Sox miss out on the playoffs by one game. I think the chances of Vitek being an MLB contributer to the tune of more than ONE win are pretty good. Let's back my scenario up.. what if Vitek is "merely" an everyday Red Sox player (2.5-3 WAR for 5-6 years) and Ranaudo doesn't sign or gets injured. I contend that the trade pieces are STILL more valuable than Wagner. I know it may pain you to admit it, but the FO did this for a reason and they often do well with these types of calculations. You know this. Wagner didn't want to be a setup man and they got two very good draft picks for him. It was a no brainer, and with the Sox sitting 1/2 game behind the best record in baseball I'd say they made the right choice.

But lets say Vitek is an all-star and Ranaudo becomes a trade piece for Hanley Ramirez. Let's just put that out there. Would Wagner have been worth the all-star and a Hanley Ramirez trade? Just putting it out there. "Of course" I would put my money on the highly developed premium prospects over the aged, formerly injured relievers who would have been either a set-up man or a #3 in the bullpen. Clearly that's what Theo chose to do to. Of course. If either of the prospects becomes an MLB regular or better they will be worth more over the length of their contract than Wagner in one year, and it isn't even close. You know this. Wagner isn't Mariano Rivera. He's an experienced lefty closer near the end of his career; he's good, not great.

I'm going to put my chips on the spots marked "Kolbrin Vitek" and "Anthony Ranaudo".

This would be a good year to "overpay" for a closer to a team that needs a lot of young talent. I'd try to swing DeJesus and Joakim Soria. I realize KC wouldn't go out of their way to move him, but at the same time a closer is a closer and teams that don't win aren't going to get over the hump with only an elite closer. Likewise, Theo could be unusually aggressive to get a guy like Soria. He's owed roughly $27m for the next 4 years (multiple potential club options), so he would be under the team's control for awhile. He's only 26 and his FB is harder this year than it has been previously. Also, his K/9 is over 11. Moving two good pitching prospects and a good young hitter for him should not be out of the question IMO. This team has built depth and has a SP staff that is relatively stable for the next few years. Soria is a guy who immediately becomes the team's setup man and potential closer of the future, and if not he would probably be a solid BP arm for the next 4 years (next Okajima). If this team has Papelbon, Soria and Bard in the pen they are set for the near future (until Papelbon's contract ends), and they are going to need an elite pen to fully realize the pitching staff they have built. How high would others go for Soria? Casey Kelly high?

I'm going back to trade suggestions. What value would David DeJesus have? How would he fit on this team? He's hitting .332/.388/.481/.869 this season, and has a reasonable $6 million club option (per-Cot's) for 2011. With the injuries to Hermida and Ellsbury is there enough room for him? Who would go? I think there's some real value in having DeJesus moving forward, if the price is right. I could see the Sox putting together a package of enough 2nd tier prospects to get the job done, I'm just not sure if the need is urgent enough.

This is a good question. I think they will stick with him because they have seen what he can do. According to Fangraphs, Okajima hasn't lost noticable velocity on any of his pitches, and he throws roughly the same % of each pitch as in previous seasons. He doesn't seem injured. Just hittable. Good pitchers become hittable sometimes. He was 3.39 with a 1.26 WHIP last year. Those numbers are decent. 2007 and 2008 were excellent. If he rebounds he will be a useful arm in some questionable company and will be valuable to the club. They definitely can't afford to have him pitching in anything late or important right now, so they should acquire another potential #3 bullpen arm and move Oki down the line. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7763&position=P#pitchtype

All in all the Red Sox would benefit from a new stadium. As fans we would benefit from increased comfort and better views. As a franchise they would probably make more money with increased seating and possibly ticket prices (gulp). The nice thing about Fenway being such a mecca is that any new park will have to be so phenomenal that it will keep the fans who are in love with Fenway currently. As the Yankees have done, 'm confident that this ownership group (and any worthy owners) would do it up right and make it both familiar and more comfortable. The additions they have done already have been really nice and in keeping with the feel of the old ballpark. I imagine they could build something pretty cool. At the same time, there's no real way to do it in Fenway's current location so I completely understand why they've done everything they can to improve the current space. That move will represent a huge culture shift for this team in particular and the group that does it will have to have huge balls to pull the trigger. Or God has to collapse the old park in the offseason when nobody is there.

Not entirely. I think the FO deserves criticism for the flaws of the bullpen. I don't think the lack of bench/backup depth can be blamed on them, in fact I think they have put together a really solid team for a "bridge" season filled with injuries. They didn't get 'lucky' to get those other guys, they were smart enough to get those other guys.

I think the Sox are in the position they are in because their bench was well-composed. Why is it that they get blame when injuries occur that are beyond anyone's wildest imagination, yet they picked up Nava when nobody else would have a few years ago, and they get McDonald who is able to produce above league average when they really need him to. Luck? I guess so, but it seems to be something that keeps this team in contention year after year so I'm ready to attribute it to something other than luck. It all depends on how much it will cost. The production difference between an "offensive replacement with average or above average defense" and an average hitter with average defense isn't huge over 2 months, but the difference in cost could be significant. The loss of Dustin Pedroia is huge no matter what, so the question is how much are you willing to spend to make up a fraction of that loss? Theo tends to be pretty conservative on those types of questions so I'm going to guess that he doesn't get anyone very impressive to replace Pedroia. I think the FO deserves tons of credit. I "sold" early on this team and that must have awoken the Gods, because they turned it around immediately. The performance of this team--especially the offense--supports my view from the offseason that this team is one big offensive piece away from being the best team in baseball. They will get that piece eventually (not this year necessairly) and the franchise will be in great shape.

f***. That was a horrible goal too. He wasn't guarding the near post which was the obvious place for the shot. f***ing weak.

Not a good pitch by papelbon. It is imperative for Papelbon to buckle down here. The way he's throwing them up and in I'm envisioning a walk-off here.

Ugh.

We all know the Sox need to address their bullpen, and they probably will as we head toward the trade deadline. This is a good place to discuss it. This should also be a good place to discuss bullpen usage. Tonight the Sox were up 4 in the 6th inning but Manny Delcarman allowed the bases loaded with nobody out. Tito brought in Oki and he slowly got outs and gave up runs until they were up by only a run with two outs--then a single gave the Rockies the lead. My question is why wouldn't they have used Daniel Bard in that situation? Whether with the bases loaded and nobody out, or as the outs increased and the game got closer. I understand avoiding "closer by committee" but Bard isn't the closer, he's the setup man and to me, that means he should be the bullpen fireman--the guy they bring in when the game is on the line before the closer would be used. It seems like smart baseball to me. If Bard gets them out of the inning then the next pitcher is virtually guaranteed to be pitching at a lower leverage situation. Instead, it seems that not only has the closer/bullpen ace been solidified as the de facto last pitcher, but the setup man is the de facto second to last pitcher, regardless of game situation. :dunno: Bullpen usage. Discuss here.

Yes. I'm totally ahead of myself, which is why this is a speculative discussion. Also, you clearly didn't read what I wrote. I said (or tried to say) that I could see his offensive upside (in terms of OPS, heavier on the OBP) approaching Werth or Crawford. At a fraction of the cost he would be worth a lot. Do you not project Yankees players into the future? Do front offices not project into the future? We all do it, it is totally reasonable, and I'm looking at Nava and asking what happens if we project him forward with his minor league numbers.

Nava could be an ideal 4th OF. Switch hitter, can probably play LF or RF, good stick, minimal ego, high OBP. Check, check, check, check, check. That said, I could see Nava's upside approaching that of Werth and Crawford without anywhere close to the cost and it is the exact type of Theo-Sox-Nation-Anxiety-Provoking move that would lead into next year with questions like "Is the Red Sox offense going to be enough with Daniel Nava as the starting OF? I don't think so."

Exactly... we aren't stupid enough to have this discussion without some context.

I think the Sox have drafted OFs with the knowledge that RF in Fenway is hard. I see Kalish going there eventually. He's a CF at heart, has a decent arm and good speed. Reddick could be a better RF too, with a good arm. Nava isn't particularly fast and has an average arm. I see LF as his more obvious spot, especially with Drew in RF for now (though I can also see the Sox making Drew a regular DH to keep him healthy over the next year after Papi is gone).

It is hard to vote. I like the intent of your idea (to make him better) but I imagine the Sox know what they're doing more than you. I'd say "no" overall.

I meant instead of getting the thumper/big name. Pretending, just for a second that Nava emerges as a .365/.490 kind of hitter, would they still need to spend the absurd money that a corner OF gets on the open market? How reasonable is an .855 OPS in MLB? Probably not super reasonable, but his MiLB stats and current performance say it's definitely possible. He could just be a player who matured late and to whom hitting the ball comes easily at any level. He's got a good eye and makes great contact and hits from both sides of the plate. He seems to be the offensive player that Jed Lowrie never turned into, and he could save this team a lot of money by being the on-going LF. This season Carl Crawford is at .369/.493. He obviously adds something with his speed and defense, but if Nava can produce those numbers at a fraction of the cost then the money could be spent where it is more needed. I'm interested to see how far Theo is willing to go with him over the next few years, especially with guys like Kalish and Reddick behind him to fill in if/when needed. Established corner OFs are really expensive and I will wouldn't be shocked if Carl Crawford is largely ignored by the Red Sox. The other obvious option for Nava would be a trade. Jacko listed David Murphy above. I think Nava is a better hitter than Murphy but Murphy was ultimately "useful" in a trade for a big name player. It's true that player didn't really work out, but David Murphy probably wasn't going to start for the Sox. Nava could have pretty good value as an immediate addition to a team. He could be a player that SD would be interested in, with their knowledge of the Sox development system and familiarity with Nava himself.

Does Nava have a chance of sticking on this team long term?

I agree, but the chance to stick it to the Yankees would be fun to see. 1) Keep him from going to NYY down the stretch. 2) Get NYYs draft picks.

Okay, this silliness aside, I'm curious if anyone thinks the Sox will be in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. On the surface they don't need pitching, but they could certainly find a spot for Cliff Lee in a playoff run. They always like getting a Type A soon to-be Free Agent. They have the talent to put together a competitive package. Finally, there's part of me that loves the idea of the Yankees needing to determine if they're going to sign Lee next year knowing that their draft picks will be going to the Red Sox of all teams. Unlikely, I realize. That's why I put it in this 'going nowhere' thread.