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I suspect they are one step ahead of you (at least with the idea of moving on if Sanchez is too expensive). The alternative would be to sit around doing nothing at all. That said I really think people should be prepared to be patient. They might not make a big move with pitchers this offseason. I wouldn't hold it against them if they didn't drop absurd amounts on mediocre arms.

Why? What numbers of his justify that?

By WAR, lackey, Beckett and Burnett had all had numerous seasons that were better than Sanchezs best season when they signed their deals. Using Fangraphs, I just don't see the appeal of Sanchez. I've always liked him but he made 8m after winning his 3rd year arb case last year. He should be happy to get 11-13m guaranteed for multiple years. This has huge overpay written all over it. Even with their payroll flexibility they shouldn't spend bad money. The payroll will rise again and they will still need to maximize how that money is spent. I don't care how much they feel they need pitching, it's not worth spending poorly.

I'm clearly in the minority here on Sanchez. I think 15m AAV is too high for the guy. That's almost what CJ Wilson got with the Angels. Can someone provide some numbers for me that say why he's in that category of pitcher this offseason? I don't think Wilson is a great pitcher but he was the best pitching FA last year, and I believe he had better numbers. I would offer him like 13m at most, probably wouldn't land him, and would save the money for another acquisition.

The IP and health seem to be there, the results are only so-so. He's worth mid rotation money, not top tier money. His asking price of 15m is what Kuroda got, even though HK is clearly a better and more reliable asset.

I hate the idea of giving Sanchez that much money. How much should they be willing to pay for 195 IP of 4 era? He's been mid-to-high 3s in the NL East, but is asking for more AAV than what Gio Gonzalez will get at the end of his current deal. No thanks. 4 years, 40m would be my opening offer. Think of it this way: if Sanchez were still a Red Sox and had never been traded originally, they would be releasing him into FA right now. With his performance until now they wouldn't be thinking 15m per. Hopefully they can avoid grass is greener syndrome.

That might have improved his SLG or HR totals, but it wouldn't have fixed his OBP issues. The point was that Brentz and Reddick have similar minor league and scouting profiles. Tons of power, not great at getting on base. Good arms, good athletes. Those of you wishing the Sox had held onto Reddick may want to pull for them to keep Brentz too. I'm not necessarily devistated by losing Reddick, but in retrospect they could have got more for him. A low AVG, low OBP player looks much better than they probably are.

I should have added Napoli to that list of good veteran presence and versatility. I wouldn't be shocked if they did Swisher and Napoli to 4 year contracts. If they added a solid SP to that group (or two) then I would be more optimistic for next year. Vs RHP Ellsbury-cf Pedroia-2b Ortiz-DH Napoli-1B Swisher-LF Middlebrooks-3b Kalish-rf Lavarnway-C Iglesias-SS Vs LHP Ellsbury-cf Pedroia-2b Ortiz-DH Napoli-1b Swisher-rf Middlebrooks-3b Ross-c Gomes-LF Iglesias-SS Or something like that. Obviously there might not be that many catchers around, but I like that offense. As others have mentioned it also leaves space for them to introduce the next wave of prospects without blocking them for too long. Bradley can have CF in 2014, Bogaerts can likely have SS whenever he is ready, unless they move Middlebrooks to 1B, and Brentz can compete for a corner OF spot over the next few years.

So a few sites have listed the Sox as players for Nick Swisher. He's a guy who would make a lot of sense for them. Versatile, solid clubhouse presence, probably affordable compared to Hamilton. Also I would think that adding some hard nosed guys like him, Ross and Gomes could go a good distance toward rebuilding.

I would think Ross and Napoli could man the position really well. If Lavarnway were moveable then any trade package would be sweetened significantly. I hope they don't move him but for a young top tier starter (prospect). A team would need to be pretty enamored with their own guy to turn down a package of Barnes, Lavarnway, and Bogaerts. Which prospect would be worth more than that? Not too many. There aren't many prospects worth that much, but there may be a few. Find the next Felix Hernandez and overspend for him.

I don't think napoli has the numbers to be a legit DH or 1b but his versatility would allow the Sox to platoon in and out of those positions and not be hurt offensively. Hell, if you have a few guys with .900 OPS as platooners you might get elite production for a huge cost savings. Perhaps the platoon/split player is a new undervalued asset.

Cheers Fred. While I am suspicious of your opinion of yourself regarding baseball scouting, I appreciate your good will. As for Napoli, I agree with you that the choice between Boston and Seattle seems to be an easy one to make. At the same time I think all teams are best served by having parameters in their negotiations and can see why the 4th year is concerning for the Sox. They should probably pull the trigger on that one but I wouldn't extend it beyond that... And of course this is all assuming that the monetary cost is reasonable.

Defensive rant much? I didn't mention anything about minor leaguers. Support my own posts without insulting others? Please. Fred is constantly insulting the intelligence of others here, but you don't see it because he's not directing it to you. No need to rush to his defense, he can handle himself.

How do you not take something personally when he posts things challenging the cognitive capacity of people who believe certain things? I'm not the only one who is offended by his style, and its obvious he and you don't like mine. Too bad. If someone comes on here and calls up down and says anyone who doesn't see it is basically not credible or thinking straight I'm going to get offended. I'm not losing sleep over it and perhaps you intuit more into my posts than I intend but yeah, he's making a claim about a group of people of which apparently I'm one. Fred and I are fine. As are you and I. However, you continually point out the personal stuff around my posts (ie "here's you taking things personally again) and ignore things like numbers and results. I posted WAR numbers there to back up my point. I think they point to a flaw in his hyperbolic argument. Instead you try to make me seem like an overly sensitive douchebag and ignore the substance of my point. It's tired and not becoming of the king of talksox or that gentle dog picture on your profile pic.

A700 I agree about the need for pitching. I'm waiting to be convinced that Harrm--who will likely command big bucks and years--is a great solution. I do like the Edwin Jackson idea though. Was interested in him last offseason.

To be clear, prior to last season, Lester had 4 consecutive seasons where his WAR was better than Sanchez's best season of his career. He's 28 years old. It is absolutely foolish to think that he's all washed up. Cliff Lee put up -0.9 WAR at his age 28 season and won the Cy Young the next season. It is even more absurd to make claims about it being "our problem" if some of us aren't willing to assume Sanchez or McCarthy would be better. McCarthy has put up a 2.9 and 2.0 WAR season the last two years. The 4 seasons prior to 2012 Lester put up between 4.1 and 5.9 every season. You want to know what it is to believe that most teams would rather have Sanchez or McCarthy than Lester? Laughable. Absolutely laughable. Your blowhard proclamations make you sound silly and uninformed. Sorry if you don't want to believe it, but its true. I would agree that the Sox should go get one of these guys, but to say that they would be able to easily slide into a #1 or #2 over a pitcher like Lester is over the top.

I guess it is unreasonable because the very definition of a 200 IP pitcher is someone who is effecient and effective enough to get through 200 IP within an allotted number of pitches. I agree about needing an innings eater, but 200 IP guy is probably too much to ask out of Doubront and certainly too much for a #3 or #4 pitcher in the current league. If Doubront got 175 IP of effective pitching it would be greatly helpful to this team. I suspect you aren't interested in arguing 200 IP vs 175, so I think your general point stands that they need to have a good deep rotation (i.e., very talented #3 or #4).

So in other words a reasonable request for a team with the resources of the sox, in a good year, would be for two pitchers to have 200 IP, And that would mean they had two horses relative to the rest of the league. Asking for three is really asking for a lot... Good point.

Fangraphs actually puts their value at roughly equal the past two seasons with quite a bit less playing time for Gomes. Ross may be a slightly better platoon but if he gets disgruntled in that role and ends up playing more than is maximal then he actually detracts from his value. In the past few seasons I've heard no complaints from Gomes about his specific role, which means he might be better suited to platooning. I don't know. I liked Ross but he's not worth getting too upset over.

Except that he hasn't started elsewhere recently very often. I suspect it was a bit of a "come to Boston" surcharge. Bad team + rabid/angry fanbase + potentially dysfunctional clubhouse + invasive media = surcharge. All in all the Sox shouldn't have any trouble paying for 1/2 of a good platoon, assuming Kalish is the other half. 5m+ for a solid batting line all year is well worth the price.

This might be true, but it doesn't change the reality of the FA pitching market. I'm a bit more bullish than you are on the prospects of Lester and the current crop pitching like a mid-range pitching staff (rather than bottom of the pack) but I wouldn't be willing to put any money on it. At the same time, I just don't see anyone who is actively shopping good pitchers. There aren't teams with too many good pitchers. If the Sox are going to strike it big they may need to trade an established star for some prospects who could become high caliber pitchers. In fact, I think many believe they did that in the Gonzalez deal with Webster and De La Rosa, but only time will tell on that one. Unfortunately, time doesn't equal success in 2013.

A power-hitting RF with a very low walk rate and a great arm? Those players start in Oakland, don't they? (Reddick and Brentz have similar numbers over their minor league years, albeit in different sample sizes)

{posted this prior to reading Jung, saying something very similar} It's just unclear who is available though. I am willing to go on a limb and say that they aren't going to get a true ace this off season. There aren't those guys available. If they go down a notch to the second tier, they could drastically overpay for someone who isn't that good. I don't particularly like that option either. Sadly, for all of us, I really think they are going to have to largely rely on getting Lester back to his old self, Buchholz to put together a great season, and get a few good seasons from some unexpected guys. Doubront could be at least average (if not better), Lackey has historically been much better than he was the past few years, and perhaps someone else would be a good fit or a surprise. I'm not laying this all at the feet of Cherington though. If the pitcher they need isn't out there, he isn't out there. We all want them to get 2010-2011 Cliff Lee, or current Felix Hernandez or another true Ace, but those guys are truly coveted. Even Josh Johnson, who is very good, isn't at that level and isn't entirely reliable. We will see where this goes. Not sure the pitching can be worked out the way we all want as quickly as we want it.

It is a dream, but the resources are there currently. The money is there for Hamilton and the prospects are there if they wanted to make a run at a guy like Upton. I don't even think it would cost them all of their best prospects. The fit in AZ doesn't seem to be great and the fact that the D-Backs have even expressed willingness to trade him (let alone numerous times) means he's likely to be moved eventually.

Upton would top my list. Trading for Upton and acquiring Hamilton would be pretty impressive. Would cost them many of their better prospects, but obviously that lineup would be really dangerous.