For the ALDS this is what I'd do:
1) Pedro Martinez (Despite the fact Schilling has had a stronger season, I'd rather Pedro pitch first.)
2) Derek Lowe (Lowe got it done last year in the ALDS and even with the ugly starts he's had, there are times he can be very good. Assuming Pedro wins game one, we have not much to lose by throwing Lowe in at number two.)
3) Curt Schilling (Triple purpose. One not a bad guy to have if going for a sweep. Two, if we come out of game tie with a series tie, I'd rather Schilling on the hill because we'd most likely get a win. Three, God forbid we be down two games, I'd like to have Schilling to rely on to try and start another amazing comeback.)
4) Bronson Arroyo (After Schilling he has been the most reliable guy in the rotation. Putting him at number four is not a bad move. First he is a guy who could get that third win if the situation calls. Second, I'd rather have him than Lowe or Wake if we needed to tie the series in game four. Plus, if he falters we can throw Wake in for long relief.)
5) Tricky, but I'd start Pedro. Hopefully he would be able to find his playoff magic and the Sox could take the game. In this scenario, Schilling would start game one of the ALCS if we won. Also, if Pedro falters we could use Schilling in relief.
Hopefully the ALDS is done in four so we can save our aces for the next round (granted we're the winners), but if not I believe that one of our two aces can get it done in game 5.
DISCLAIMER: Performance predictions based on Francona not being a moron and trying to save the 'pen.