It's not all about upside. Reggie Abercrombie has some of the best tools in the minors in the Dodgers system and he has the potential to be Carlos Beltran... if he puts it all together. The chance of Reggie Abercrombie becoming Carlos Beltran? 0.01%. You can't rate a player purely on what he could be, but also what he has done to put it all together. That's why I want to see more from Hall before I can consider him that high on the list.
First off, I just want to say welcome and it's nice to have someone to talk prospects with who knows more than average.
I want to address the above statement I quoted from you. That's the basis of my argument for Papelbon. His stuff is really very good. Forget the age and forget the performance (I know it's not really smart to do that, but bear with me here for a minute) and think about the caliber of pitches he possesses.
To quote Greg Maddux (indirectly) a pitcher is 4 things: velocity, control, movement and knowledge of how to pitch. The first three can only be indirectly measured in statistics and need to be looked at via scouting reports. By all accounts, he has the first three in spades. He consistently throws in the mid-90's and counters that with two very good and one slightly above average offspeed pitches. That takes care of velocity. Baseball America said that Papelbon has the best slider in the Sox system. Granted, it's a weak system to be judging sliders on, but by all scouting reports he has very good movement on it. Add to that a very good slurve and a solid changeup, both with good movement, and he has the movement aspect covered. As far as control goes, this is probably the area he needs to work most on. He can throw all four pitches for strikes rather consistently, but he did have 40+ walks in 130 IP last year. Good, but room for improvement. In my mind, and the minds of many others, pitchability is measured in the stats a pitcher produces based upon the stuff the pitcher has. Papelbon knows how to pitch looking at what he did last year.
Yes, he was a little bit older than the field (by 1 or 2 years, not 2 or 3), but considering how late his start was as a pitcher, you can put him on the same plane as the rest. Also, Papelbon should've been brought up to Portland midway through last year, but they wanted him to hone his offspeed stuff with Coach Nip in Sarasota last season and wait the extra year to put him on the fast track. Next year, he should spend half the season in Portland, the other half in Pawtucket and September in Boston.