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First, we should commend Kutter Crawford for what he did this season. With Lucas Giolito going down, the Red Sox needed someone to take the ball every fifth day and pitch league-average innings. Crawford did exactly that. He made 33 starts this season, tied for the most in baseball, and pitched 183 2/3 league-average innings. Kudos to him for that.
The issue, however, is that Giolito will be back next season, and no rotation needs two Lucas Giolitos. By nearly every measure, Crawford was the epitome of average. His fastball velocity is pedestrian. His strikeout rate is in the 51st percentile. His walk rate is in the 68th percentile. Crawford is a middle-of-the-road starter, which is fine if you try to be a middle-of-the-road team. But after three years of .500 baseball, it’s time for the Red Sox to aim higher.
Oh wait, I almost forgot. There is one thing that Crawford is definitely not league average at doing. If you have watched him at all this season, you know that he loves giving up home runs. Nobody served up more round trippers than Crawford, who has watched his opponents circle the bases a whopping 34 times. Of course, you don’t allow a league-leading amount of home runs by accident. There are a myriad of reasons for Crawford’s homer-happy ways, from poor command to a high fly-ball rate to a fastball and cutter that lack movement. Because Crawford is so average in many other aspects of pitching, it’s hard to see a way for him to offset his home-run tendencies.
The pattern that played out this season is one that I fear will repeat for years. When the weather was cool and the ball wasn’t carrying, Crawford was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over his first ten starts through May 18, Crawford had a 2.17 ERA and allowed only three home runs over 58 innings. Over his final 23 starts, however, Crawford has a 5.37 ERA and has allowed 30 home runs over 113.2 innings. The amazing thing is that Crawford had a lower batting average against in that second span but the frequent hard contact he was allowing left the ballpark rather than falling for singles and doubles. In a different, more spacious ballpark, maybe there is a chance that Crawford could be at least a mid-rotation starter. But as long as the Red Sox play in Fenway Park, which I heard they will be doing next year, Crawford will struggle to be more than league average.
That brings us to where he fits into next year’s rotation. In my mind, the Red Sox have three starters locked into next year’s rotation:
Tanner Houck doesn’t quite have the strikeout rate of a front-line starter but proved this year he is a more-than-capable number three.
Brayan Bello, whose contract extension necessitates that he be given every chance to be a starter, showed this season that he is far too inconsistent to be counted on as anything more than a number four.
Lucas Giolito almost certainly will pick up his player option but cannot be counted on to be any more than a back-end starter in his first year after elbow surgery.
If you are keeping track at home, that means that the last three spots of the rotation are filled out. If the Red Sox are serious about competing in 2025, they cannot have Crawford take up a fourth. This is not a team that is one established starter away from competing. In a perfect world, they would add one big-name free agent and one controllable starter through a trade. Locking Crawford into a rotation spot would prevent at least one of those from becoming a possibility.
This leaves two options as to what to do. The first is to move Crawford to the bullpen, a place where Crawford succeeded in 2023, and that allows his stuff to play up. The issue with that, however, is that the Red Sox bullpen is already crowded, and I don’t think Crawford would take too kindly to being moved to a relief role after making 33 starts in 2024.
So here’s what I propose. Use Crawford as a package for a front-line starter. Send him to a big West Coast ballpark where the ball doesn’t travel. Crawford has proven that he can be an effective big-league starter, but the Red Sox aren’t looking for another pitcher who is just “serviceable.” The Red Sox need an ace, and attaching Crawford to an intriguing prospect package may be the way to do it.
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