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Entering his start against the San Diego Padres, right-hander Walker Buehler’s tumultuous Boston Red Sox career appears to be closer to the end than its beginning.
In 19 starts, the two-time World Series champion has a 5.74 ERA with less than five innings per start on average in 2025. Since returning from the injured list on May 20, he’s posted a 6.56 ERA across 13 starts. Every once in a while, there’s a glimmer of hope for the 31-year-old, who had a three-start stretch against Washington, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia in which his ERA was 3.00 with two quality starts. However, those stretches are often preceded and succeeded by several outings of rocky command, loud contact and, most importantly, no length.
Part of the appeal of Buehler last winter was the presumption that once he got to October, the switch would flip and he’d provide quality outings for a Red Sox team hungry to make a World Series run. While Buehler set the precedent last year that he’s more than capable of elevating after a down year, it’s no mystery that he’s fallen off from what was a rocky 2024 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
His strikeouts are down, quality of contact is worse, command is worse, velocity is worse; the list goes on. Given that the Red Sox are in a position to contend this year, and Buehler is receiving $500,000 every other start from here on in, those struggles are exaggerated. It starts—or, perhaps, ends—Friday against the Padres. This is his 20th start of the season, giving him his first bonus of $500,000. Ironically, this setting is exactly where the turnaround took place for Buehler last October. After getting torched for six runs in the second inning of his NLDS start, he followed up with three scoreless to finish that outing before firing four scoreless against the New York Mets and then six innings against the New York Yankees in the World Series.
Buehler doesn't need a metaphorical wake-up call—he knows how much he’s struggled this year. However, perhaps the reminder that this is where the turnaround happened less than a year ago, combined with the fact these two teams are both hungry to win their respective divisions, gives him a shot of adrenaline he can channel into a successful outing. After all, he did dazzle in his last road start against the Phillies, where he showcased a new windup before dazzling for seven innings of one(earned)-run ball.
It won't be easy to replicate that. The Padres don't whiff at all -- second-lowest whiff rate in baseball -- and Buehler already struggles to get them in general. They're also eighth in the league in expected batting average against fastballs 95 miles per hour and slower, which accounts for 584 of Buehler's 607 fastballs since coming off the IL in May.
At this stage of the game, getting quality out of everybody is massive. That said, getting quality out of a guy like Buehler is everything to this pitching staff, and a turnaround for him would mean arguably more to the rotation than shortstop Trevor Story’s did for the lineup.







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