Tyler O'Neill's Offseason Outlook

The quotes coming out of the Boston Red Sox front office heading into this offseason have felt similar to those from offseasons past. They've exuded vague optimism without offering any details about the organization's actual plans. Tyler O'Neill has been candid about his openness to remaining with the Red Sox, telling reporters, "If I get the chance to come back to Boston, it’s definitely something I’d be interested in. Good group of guys, good team chemistry. They’re obviously defined their winning window by signing Cora. They’re serious about winning, so we’ll see what happens.” Craig Breslow expressed the same sentiment, though with an added layer of caginess, saying, "We’ll obviously have to see how this process plays out. But I anticipate we’ll be in communication....We saw the effect of a guy like Tyler and 30-plus home runs as a right-handed power hitter in the middle of the lineup.” Red Sox fans have seen this before: right-handed hitter shows real promise as a middle-of-the-lineup type of guy in a one-year stint in Boston, and the team lets them walk in free agency. Right-handed power is a team need and O'Neill supplies it.

An offseason trade to balance the lineup is almost guaranteed, especially with Roman Anthony preparing to add yet another left-handed bat to the mix. If Breslow decides to move Masataka Yoshida in order to keep possibly the best right fielder in the league in WIlyer Abreu and the current leader of the team in Jarren Duran (sounds like a good plan to me), there will still be at-bats for O'Neill, Anthony, and Rob Refsnyder. If re-signing O'Neill is the only legitimate offseason move the team makes to bolster the offense, fans will probably be disappointed. However, that would fit with Alex Cora's managerial tendencies. Cora has demonstrated that he likes to protect young left-handed hitters from facing lefties. Remember when Eduardo Nunez pinch-hit for a young Rafael Devers in the 2018 World Series and went yard? Good times.

In recent weeks, Cora has made a few comments indicating that he expects his players to be better prepared to handle 162-game season in 2025. Even so, the team has a young core and prospects who have never faced the grind of 162 games. He should be expecting to give days off based on matchups, both to promote health and to put players in a position to succeed.

With their competitive window about to open, the Red Sox are in position to spend real money and to run a top-10 payroll, as they did in every year of this century except for 2023 and 2024. So what will O'Neill actual get in today’s market?

We can start by looking at comparable right-handed outfield sluggers in Teoscar Hernandez and Jorge Soler. In February, Soler signed with the Giants for three years and $42 million, only to be flipped at the deadline to Atlanta. Coming off a down 2023 season, Hernández signed a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers in January. It has since come out that Hernández rejected a two-year, $28-million contract with the Red Sox after they refused to add the third year, as in Soler's contract.

Entering free agency for the first time, O'Neill will have to decide whether he is willing to take a short-term, prove-it contract, or whether he wants to secure a multiyear deal as enters his thirties. O'Neill has only made it to 500 plate appearances in a season once, in 2021. It would make sense for him to take a lower average annual value in exchange for a four-year deal with a team like the Giants. Unless the team were to trade Duran, Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, or Roman Anthony, it's hard to see the Red Sox handing such a long-term deal. However, if those offers start involving options or looking like Soler's three years for $42 million or maybe a two-year $30-million deal, they could make more sense. This would allow O'Neill to re-enter free agency again at the age of 32, right after a new CBA will have been agreed upon (hopefully on time).

Breslow has his hands full. O'Neill's excellent season followed two injury-shortened campaigns in which he was slightly below-average at the plate. In my opinion, his is the lowest skill level you could go for as the main right-handed bat for the Boston lineup. Adding a right-handed batter with an .800 OPS would go a long way, but the Red Sox could also use a right-handed bat with positional versatility.