Max Fried Is A Different Type of Challenge As Red Sox Lick Their Wounds From Game 1

The hope the Boston Red Sox have left is that they will not face Cam Schlittler again. And that difference, no matter how bad the offense looked yesterday, can be an incentive to readjust and try to come back stronger in Game 2.

Schlittler silenced the Red Sox again by throwing a solid 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and only two hits allowed, in his first start of the entire year with more than 106 pitches. When many of us thought Schlittler was done after striking out Adley Rutschman—until that point he had the team’s only hit in 20 plate appearances—to close out the sixth inning, Yankees manager Aaron Boone sent him out to open the seventh. He threw 117 pitches and generated 24 swings and misses, a career high. Now, in two postseason starts against the Red Sox, after also eliminating them last year in the Wild Card Series, he is 2-0, with 14 1/3 scoreless innings, 22 strikeouts and only one walk. He is this team's newest kryptonite.

Schlittler threw his fastball 56% of the time and averaged 98.6 mph—topping out at 101 mph—and it was clear that the Red Sox still cannot hit high velocity. But in Game 1, there was a much bigger problem against Schlittler’s mix, as, on their 11 balls put in play, there were only two batted balls that exceeded 95 mph in exit velocity. Both ended up as groundouts into the glove of Yankees second baseman Anthony Volpe: one by Caleb Durbin at 100.1 mph for the second out of the third inning, and the second out of the fifth inning, a ball hit by Nick Sogard at 96.3 mph.

In part, everything is due to the fact that Schlittler’s version was even more lethal because of the way he mixed his pitches, using the curveball for the first time as the second weapon in his arsenal. He threw it for 27% of his 117 pitches, a career high. The results were overwhelming, as Boston’s hitters missed the curveball on 50% of their 16 swings.

The Red Sox finished with the worst offense in the entire league against the curveball, batting just .184, and the second-worst slugging percentage at .298, only ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees will send Max Fried to the mound this Wednesday, in Game 2, who is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. They have scored one run against Fried in 11 2/3 innings this year, a solo home run by Sogard on August 29 at Yankee Stadium. If we extend it to his last five starts as a Yankee, including Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card, then Fried improves to 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 29 1/3 innings, with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks.

For Boston, their plate discipline has been the best result in drawing those 11 walks against Fried, although the average number of batters reaching base against him per start is only seven. So, that will be part of Boston’s challenge, with a lineup that has hit for a poor combined offensive line of .207/.260/.331 with a .590 OPS, 36 strikeouts, and nine walks against Fried. This year, they have gone 0-for-9 against his curveball, with a 50% whiff rate.

Fried does not have Schlittler’s sustained meteoric velocity, but he mixes seven pitches in his arsenal and most of them are quality offerings. None of them has allowed more than a .333 xBA this year and all of them exceed a 18% whiff rate. The formula becomes much more complicated when he faces the Red Sox, because he has dominated most of Boston’s key hitters. We can separate it into two groups, with the worst hitters and those who have hit Fried the best.

Red Sox's Worst Hitters Against Max Fried

Here we have eight of Boston’s nine starters from Game 1, and you can see that the only hitter who could add a little offensive heat is veteran Trevor Story, who has hit two of the three home runs and has five of the 12 RBIs from the entire roster. Without Story, the offensive line drops from .128/.183/.256 with a .439 OPS to .104/.164/.164 with a .329 OPS.

Fried’s biggest advantage has been his combined dominance against Adley Rutschman, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Roman Anthony, who have gone 0-for-22 combined with six strikeouts. Another interesting detail here is that left-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against Fried, with eight strikeouts and no walks. Abreu is one of the team’s key hitters and, although he has not done particularly well against Fried, he is immovable. However, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy will have to choose whether he will keep Anthony(who might not even be healthy) and Duran in the starting lineup.

Red Sox's Best Hitters Against Max Fried

Nick Sogard leads the list, and the rest of the hitters are right-handed, an interesting point that reveals a certain profile advantage, so we could see one of them getting an at-bat as a pinch hitter or a starting spot.

For Boston, the ultimate key will be knowing when to attack Fried at the precise moment, especially by extending their plate discipline. Right-handed hitters like Contreras, Rafaela, Story and perhaps Nate Eaton getting a starting spot will continue to carry the most weight in the offensive profile, but it is clear that the Red Sox will need quality at-bats throughout the lineup. If they can draw enough pitches to prevent Fried from going more than five innings, then the story of Game 2 could change if they face the less dominant part of the Yankees' bullpen.

Do you approve of Red Sox ownership?

Do you approve of Red Sox ownership?

• Do you approve of Red Sox ownership? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Red Sox Polls >