Lucas Giolito Has A Looming Mutual Option. Both Sides Should Be Interested In Exercising It

Lucas Giolito has an interesting decision coming at the end of the season. When he signed a two-year contract in Boston before the 2024 campaign, the team included a clause that would hopefully protect themselves in the event of another injury. Should Giolito pitch under 140 innings in 2025, the team held a club option. If he goes over 140 innings this season, that club option converts to a mutual option.

As you likely know, the 31-year-old righty is on pace to blow by 140 innings this season, even with the team easing him into the rotation to begin the season after a hamstring strain slowed his start during spring training. The team could limit Giolito’s innings over the remainder of his starts, but they’d be shortchanging themselves out of their third best starter and opening up their bullpen to be further taxed as we head into September. Neither of those are things that a team interested in playing in October should do. The front office should want the best version of Giolito for the remainder of this season, and for seasons moving forward. Giolito has made it clear he wants to win in Boston and there’s a chance that could be this year. Starting next season, though, the championship window is wide open. If Giolito wants to be part of that, then it’s in the best interest of both parties to exercise their mutual option this winter so he can remain with the Red Sox.

From the front office's side, it sounds like Craig Breslow is exceedingly interested in bringing Giolito back for next season. He told MassLive: “You hope that these situations are clear. When you’re pushing for a playoff spot, they are. We’re all incentivized to do whatever we can to win games. The most important thing after that is actually just making sure he’s healthy and recovering and that we’re monitoring the workload so that he’s in a position to help us every five days…We try to keep the focus on the field right now but it’s impossible to ignore the way he has stabilized the rotation behind Garrett (Crochet). He and (Brayan) Bello have done a great job there. This is a place that he has been very outspoken about in terms of how comfortable he feels here and how magical Fenway has been. He has helped us win a ton of games. He has been a great addition to the group. When the time comes, we’ll have those conversations.”

Sure, you could read into the ‘we’re monitoring the workload’ comment as a potential nod towards them limiting his innings to make sure he stays under 140, but that feels far more like a stretch. Giolito has been a consistent starter for this team for the bulk of the season. He’s currently sporting a 3.47 ERA with 99 strikeouts over 119.1 innings pitched. Most recently, he threw an absolute gem of eight innings, zero runs, four hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts against the overlooked Baltimore Orioles. In that outing, his changeup looked more lethal than it has all season. Will Flemming described it on WEEI’s call of the game as ‘having a parachute attached to it’ because hitters were fooled almost every time he threw it. It’s no wonder that Breslow and company are interested in bringing him back next season—he’s the exact type of pitcher that pitching coach Andrew Bailey can work with and mold into whatever the team needs him to be.

Things are a bit more complicated from Giolito’s side of the mutual option equation. Should he turn down the option and test free agency, he’ll likely put himself in line for a pretty sizable raise with a multi-year contract attached to it. That’s an opportunity that would be difficult for anyone to turn down, but especially a pitcher who has endured a season-ending injury last season and was one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the league before then. He turns 32 in the middle of next season, and while his velocity has stayed steady post-injury, things will likely begin to tick down sooner rather than later.

He seems to fit into the Red Sox’s system like a hand in a glove, though. He’s bought in all the way and would likely be considered the shining star of Bailey’s pitching lab this season. Picking up his side of the mutual option allows for him to remain a core member of the organization for next season, when the championship window will also truly be open. Plus, he'd avoid getting slapped with the dreaded qualifying offer, which could hamper his market in free agency. However, that would open him up to the possibility of being handed one next offseason, which could complicate matters furhter.

Thus, at the end of the day, no one knows exactly what will happen with Lucas Giolito and his (likely) mutual option. What we do know is that he has been one of the three most dependable starters for this rotation and will likely be trusted to start playoff games behind Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello come October. The importance of his presence in the dugout and on the mound cannot be overstated, and the Red Sox should be interested in bringing him back for 2026 and possibly beyond. Giolito may decide to test free agency and see what he can get on the open market, but putting another successful year under his belt in Boston could go a long way for future earnings should he choose to exercise his part of the mutual option.

It's a rare occurrence in baseball, but that mutual option could be the best option for both sides this winter. With a playoff run still awaiting Giolito and the Red Sox, this partnership may not be nearing its end, after all.