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    Johan Oviedo's Red Sox Debut Waved Too Many Red Flags

    Johan Oviedo's debut with the Boston Red Sox raised a lot of concerns about his future as a member of the bullpen.
    Alex Mayes

    By Alex Mayes

    Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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    The Boston Red Sox acquired Johan Oviedo during the offseason with the hopes that he could be a prominent option in the starting rotation. There's always been a bit of a question mark surrounding Oviedo due to his prior health issues, but the ceiling is sky high, at least if he can throw more strikes. Pitching coach Andrew Bailey worked with Oviedo throughout spring training to get him to focus less on trying to paint corners are more on just filling up the strike zone because, as Bailey put it, when Oviedo threw strikes, hitters struggle to make contact.

    At the beginning of camp, it seemed like something clicked, but as the spring continued, a dip in velocity and a rise in solid contact began to rear their heads simultaneously. Oviedo’s last spring training performance was enough of a red flag that Alex Cora opted to have rookie Connelly Early join the rotation and shift Oviedo into a long reliever role to begin the season. In his last spring training outing, Oviedo threw 84 pitches, only 48 of which went for strikes, giving up six hits, one home run, six earned runs, three strike outs, two walks, and one hit by pitch over 3 1/3 innings. He spoke to reporters after the game and admitted that he was testing out a new cutter during the outing, but adding a new pitch so late into the spring is a questionable decision for any pitcher, especially one who knows he’s actively competing for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

    Things have gone pretty poorly to start the season for the Red Sox, especially considering the high we were all riding after Opening Day. During the first game against the Astros though, Oviedo was tasked with coming into a difficult situation when he entered the game in the fifth inning; he entered a losing game and proceeded to give up four additional runs over 3 2/3 innings. What continued from spring though, was that his velocity was significantly down. Every pitch, except his curveball, was down close to two and a half miles per hour from his average.

    After that outing, Oviedo again spoke to the media and seemed to have just as many questions as the rest of us. He said he’s surprised that his velocity is down and that everything is coming out slower than when he returned from Tommy John surgery. He speculated that it may be a mechanical issue, but at this point, he doesn’t have a real answer as to why he is struggling so bad. Whatever the issue is, having him fill up the strike zone with pitches coming in far slower than expectation is a recipe for disaster. If we look at his heat map from that Houston game, we can see that he’s not missing the zone much. His bright red spots are mostly strikes, but they are strikes that lived in the heart of the plate. Against someone like Yordan Alvarez, that’s not going to cut it.

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    While there was speculation that Rule 5 acquisition Ryan Watson likely had the shortest leash among the relief corps, it seems more likely that Oviedo should be the one looking over his shoulder as Tommy Kahnle ramps up to get work in with Worcester and then, eventually, the Red Sox. If we look past Kahnle, both Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval are pitching multiple innings in simulated games at Fort Myers, working four innings each. They are closer to returning than not. and both deserve looks in the bullpen (if not the rotation) once they are ready. Oviedo has one minor-league option remaining; once any of the above three pitchers are ready to make their season debut, he’s likely heading to Worcester where he can work on recapturing his best stuff without nearly as much pressure.

    One bad outing does not make a slump, nor does it mean Oviedo has lost any of the potential that made him such a tantalizing trade candidate. However, the early returns leave a lot to be desired. Andrew Bailey has done well with most of the pitchers the Red Sox have brought in during his tenure, but not every project receives an A. There's still plenty of time in the season for the former Pirate to get his mind (and arm) right, but the Red Sox shouldn't be afraid to keep the leash short with so many alternatives knocking at the door.

    573 based Talk Sox Podcast co-host and writer.

    Follow Alex Mayes on Twitter: iamalexmayes

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    TedYazPapiMookie

    TedYazPapiMookie 31

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    • Posted

    Take a hard look at this pitching staff.  The two biggest issues are talent and a very bad Manager.

    TALENT

    There is Crochet, a top 2 AL SP to anchor the staff is great.  Connelly Early the next ACE of the staff will keep the team in games and continue to improve.  Has an outside chance of making the All-Star team with Crochet.  Sonny Gray, a guy who flourishes with non-competitive teams.  His time in NY was a disaster.  Don't be shocked if the same happens in Boston.  He's 36 and put up a 3.42 and 1.20 in Oakland through 2016 (10 years ago in a town with no pressure).  He spent 3 years in CIN another town with no pressure and put up 3.49 and 1.15.  2 years in STL another low-pressure place and he put up 4.07 and 1.16.  2 years in MIN yet another low-pressure place with a 2.90 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  2 years in NYY with high pressure and his numbers jump to 4.51 and 1.42 back in 2017 and 2018.  Now, 8 years later he goes to his second high pressure town and team, and he begins with a 4-inning effort with a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.  Yes, it's a small sample.  Yes, it resembles his downfall in NY the other high-pressure position he had in his career.  I believe Early will have the far more effective season than Gray (our current #2 SP based on Cora's opinion).  Ranger Suarez, coming from Philly he is used to pressure and has performed well in it.  His first start was not good, but his upside seems higher than Gray's.  He's 6 years younger and his 8 years with PHI led to a 3.38 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in a small ballpark.  Those are great indicators of success for him in BOS.  When things shake out, he will likely have better numbers than Gray and should be the #3 SP in the rotation.  Brayan Bello, hyped as a prospect he has been a disappointment.  He's only 27 years old but hasn't provided reliable pitching for his first three and 1/3 full seasons.  ERAs ranging from 3.35 (only one under 4) to 4.71 and WHIPS varying between 1.24 (only one 1.34) to 1.78 he's a bottom of the rotation pitcher who has been treated with more respect than Early who truly is a great prospect.  2025 can be looked at as him finally developing or it could be like our catchers, a one-year wonder scenario.  We see this all the time with Cora and the Red Sox front office and NESN.  Bello, on a good team, should be the 6th or 7th starter not the 5th starter.  If Houck was healthy, he should be slotted ahead of him along with Crawford and Sandoval.  

    So, bottom-line, this staff is mediocre.  Two great pitchers at the top, one very good pitcher in the middle of the rotation, one SP2 who should be a SP4 and one journeyman who shouldn't be there.  Breslow needs to find help because of item two listed above.

    BAD MANAGER

    Couple the mediocre SP talent (not including Crochet, Early and Suarez) with a terrible manager who never should have received the honor of being a Red Sox manager and you have a disaster waiting to happen.  Until Cora figures out WHEN the right time is to pull a starting pitcher and WHO should come in to keep the baserunners from scoring, Boston's ERA and WHIP will be higher than it should be.  It's not that the bullpen is terrible, it's completely misused by an unknowledgeable manager whose only skills include interpersonal relationships with specific players on his team, upper management, ownership, the media and the grounds crew.  Managing the roster is done poorly.  Managing game situations is done poorly.  Managing the batting order is done poorly.  Managing the starters based on meritocracy is done very poorly.  Managing the starting rotation is done poorly and last but not least managing pitching substitutions is done horribly.  Breslow needs to fire Cora to improve results, or Cora will be talking with ownership about finding a new GM.

    Breslow needs to fix the problem just like he did when Devers was shipped elsewhere and Bregman was brought in to fix the hole at 3B that now exists again.  Fire Cora and trade for a reliable 3B, Catcher, 2B and fix the positions in the OF.  Abreu needs to go before he repeats his .219 average against mostly right-handed batters in 2025 after April 30th.  The gold gloves are created by hole in the metric created by the dimensions of Fenway and his power is good but not timely or consistent.  Rafaela, Duran and Anthony needs to be the outfield this season and Boston is weak at every infield position other than SS.  Contreras will continue his rapid decline in hitting.  Mayer will prove he isn't the player the front office and Cora suggest he is and we desperately need a 3B the caliber of a Bregman.

    After 5 games we've seen 1 win by Crochet, two back-to-back losses when Cora relieved the starter at the wrong time with the wrong reliever, two SPs not good enough to stop the HOU hitting.  Lack of skill and a bad manager is a lot to overcome.



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