Grading the 2025 Boston Red Sox: Outfielders

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

As an OFer, Rafaela had 4.6 fWAR (109 wRC+) and Duran had 3.9 fWAR (111 wRC+) so it'd really be hard for me to give them the same grade. 

Anthony A-

Rafaela B+

Duran B-

Abreu B- (could be higher, but lost time)

Refsnyder B-

Overall, this group was 2nd in MLB in fWAR. Hard to nitpick too much. Only negative fWAR guy was Masa's 6 G sample. 

 

Duran regressed back to more like the Butterfly Man this past season.

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

As an OFer, Rafaela had 4.6 fWAR (109 wRC+) and Duran had 3.9 fWAR (111 wRC+) so it'd really be hard for me to give them the same grade. 

Anthony A-

Rafaela B+

Duran B-

Abreu B- (could be higher, but lost time)

Refsnyder B-

Overall, this group was 2nd in MLB in fWAR. Hard to nitpick too much. Only negative fWAR guy was Masa's 6 G sample. 

 

I agree- player for player, except I give Duran a B. The missed time aspect kept the grades from being:

A Anthony

B+ Rafaela & Abreu

B Duran & Refsnyder (close to B+)

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Duran regressed back to more like the Butterfly Man this past season.

Still, the 13th best OF fWAR in MLB. 

Obvious regression, but still A- to B grade, to me.

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Still, the 13th best OF fWAR in MLB. 

Obvious regression, but still A- to B grade, to me.

I’m not in much to the stats, and a grade. They’re either a good OF, or they’re not. Even when Duran catches fly ball sometimes the eye test shows you he bumbles, and stumbles around waiting for the ball to come down.

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont see anything wrong with adding extra emphasis to the stretch run/playoffs.

I always thought postseason performance should be factored when considering a guy's overall year. That's when it matters most, facing the best pitchers, hitters and fielders, right?

Do you think the Phillies and Brewers would intentionally walk Ohtani if the on-deck batter was Kike, the King of Klocktober?

5 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

The Boston Red Sox's season-ending loss to the Yankees got their offseason started prematurely, though this extra time to prepare for a crucial winter could prove beneficial. Like the front office is surely doing at this juncture, we figured we'd review the seasons of each player on the roster and grade their performance.

We've already taken a look at catchers here, and like the backstop grades, there won't be too many surprises with the outfielders. Just about everyone involved the mix played well, and the starting quartet was one of the strongest units on the team this season. Let's dive into each individual player's 2025 performance.

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Roman Anthony: A-

The young gun was as advertised for the Red Sox. He slashed .292/.396/.463 on the season while posting a 2.7 fWAR and a 140 wRC+. He was arguably the brightest spot in the outfield and was an absolute game-changer after his call-up. He suffered a few rookie errors early on, but his glove came around fairly quickly. We’re still waiting for him to find his power stroke at the plate, but it looked like it was starting to show up around the time of his oblique injury. What keeps him from a perfect A+ lies out of his control: the oblique injury ending his season early, and the fact that he didn’t get called up until June. Had he been on the roster since Opening Day, like he should have been, we’re likely looking at a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate.

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Ceddanne Rafaela: B

Rafaela shuffled between center field and second base more than he should have this season, but he was still a plus defender. He posted a 22 Fielding Run Value in center field while accruing only five errors at the position. Offensively, he slashed .249/.295/.414, good for 3.8 fWAR and a 91 wRC+. What keeps him from an A grade, though, is the fact that he still swings at anything that sniffs the strike zone, and some things that don’t (42.2% chase rate, second percentile among qualified hitters). He had mental lapses in the playoffs that you’d expect him to be too mature for, as well. Still, his web gems are things of beauty, and he often makes difficult catches look routine. He needs to be in center field on a nightly basis for the remainder of his contract.

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Jarren Duran: B

Duran had a mixed bag of a season. Offensively, he was sneakily good, batting .256/.332/.442 with 3.9 fWAR and a 111 wRC+. He was second on the team in stolen bases with 24 and was a clubhouse leader as the team made its postseason push. The offense seemed to follow his lead for the summer months, when he was hot everything fired on all cylinders. Defensively though, Duran was less than ideal. His seven errors on the season are probably a generous way of describing his glove in 2025. His dropped pop-fly in Game 2 of the Wild Card series may have cost the Red Sox a chance to win that game. His 2024 peak may not be on the menu anymore, but his nightly contributions make him a key contributor to this team.

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Wilyer Abreu: B

Like Anthony above, Abreu’s grade could be higher if he didn’t miss significant time with a quad injury toward the end of the season. He was a shell of himself upon his return and didn’t make much of an impact at all. Before that injury, though, Abreu was his typical steady self. He slashed .247/.317/.469 with a 2.4 fWAR and a 110 wRC+, all while being platooned in right field. Even with the time missed due to injury, he was second on the team in home runs with 22. He had five errors on the season and will likely be in contention for another Gold Glove. He’s primed for a true breakout year in 2026 and could potentially shed his platoon status (.676 OPS vs. lefties this year) if he continues his upward trajectory.

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Rob Refsnyder: B-

Refsnyder did his job well, for the most part. He was Abreu’s platoon partner and then took over right field duties once Abreu hit the injured list. He slashed .269/.354/.484 on the season with a 1.0 fWAR and a 128 wRC+. He dominated left-handed pitching as he was expected to and was, somewhat surprisingly, a vocal presence for the team. He had only one error on the season. Time will tell if Refsnyder is back with the club next year. He’s going to be a free agent and toyed with the idea of retirement as recently as last winter. Should he decide to hang them up, he will one day be a valuable coach to a franchise.

 

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 That "pop fly" Duran dropped was in fact a line drive by Judge that went into his glove about a foot about the ground.  That's why it wasn't called an error.  In addition, I think his defense improved and he made at least a couple of great catches late in the season.  

I think durability should be a factor, which favors Duran and Story with 157 games and Rafaela with 156.   Then comes a big drop to Narvaez, 118, who was a catcher and was in fact  durable.  After him Abreu, twice out with injuries plus his return showed he had not recovered, with 115, Bregman with 114, Gonzalez with 98.

Then comes a stunner--Hamilton with 91 freaking games and a WAR of 1.1.  His OPS was a dismal .590, but his fielding and baserunning were excellent.  

I do agree that Anthony is special and deserves the highest grade, A-,    Despite playing in just 71 games, his WAR was the 6th best at 3.1  However, I would give Rafaela and his 4.8 WAR a B+ and Duran's 4.6 WAR a B.  Abreu is a better hitter and fielder than Duran (but not nearly as good a baserunner), but he's got to stay off the IL to contribute.  B-.  

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran gets a bump for playing so much and being towards the top of the lineup (687 PA's). No comment about the defensive metrics. 

Yes, fWAR rewards more and more playing time, and that does have serious value.

Even if you think he's just a top 20 OF'er, there are 90 starting OF'ers in MLB, so that is nearly top 20% or the "A" level.

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora is obsessed with Duran posting every game. I just don't think he should be a 162 guy. There were so many days that he just looked tired or overmatched. He even said that it's hard for him to keep his weight on during the season, so he must feel rundown. 

I think his baserunning abilities and excitement convinces Cora he's worth playing everyday- in the hopes he can just get on base, even when tired, and then...

IMO, I'd platoon Duran more than Abreu, next year. Maybe 2025 was an outlier, but I think Abreu is getting better vs LHPs, and Duran is in decline vs L & R. (Abreu has better splits v L in 2025.)

IMO, one gets traded, anyway, so the choice will not have to be made. Plus, Ref may retire or sign elsewhere.