Craig Breslow Says the Red Sox Will Keep Ceddanne Rafaela in Center Field

Last week, Craig Breslow, the only Chief Baseball Officer in Major League Baseball, spoke with beat reporters over Zoom about a variety of subjects. He said several interesting things, but I’d like to focus on one in particular. Breslow told reporters that the plan is to hand center field over to Ceddanne Rafaela. “I think he’s a guy that we will try to keep in center as much as possible,” said Breslow. This is exciting news, and I have been banging this particular drum for a while now. The best way for Rafaela to help the Red Sox is to hand him the starting center field job and let him track down some balls in the gap.

Rafaela has all the tools to be an elite center fielder, but thanks to Trevor Story’s shoulder injury, he spent more time in the infield than the outfield during the 2024 season. “Ceddanne’s versatility is a huge asset," said Breslow. "The defensive floor at multiple positions makes him a really functional piece on a roster.” The numbers would beg to differ. According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Values, he was worth six runs in the outfield and negative five in the infield. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Rafaela was worth 12 runs in center field, fifth-most in all of baseball, despite playing just 631 1/3 innings at the position. Even if you combine 2023 and 2024, he still hasn’t come close to getting a full season’s worth of time as a big-league center fielder. Imagine how good he could be if he got to actually focus on playing that position. Breslow seems to understand that, saying, “I’m not sure we saw the best of him even defensively because of the fact that he was switching back and forth between center and shortstop.”

Rafaela’s bat was a big disappointment in 2024. More importantly, the underlying numbers were downright scary. His chase and whiff rates were some of the highest we’ve ever seen ever since we started tracking those numbers, and they tend to be very predictive of future performance. If you’re expecting Rafaela to suddenly turn into a great hitter, you’ll be waiting a long time. However, Rafaela can still provide real value if the team lets him cook in center (at least until Roman Anthony arrives). If he should make a small improvement at the plate, or even just get a little bit lucky in the BABIP department, he can be an extremely valuable player.

I understand that circumstances may not allow this to happen. Even a medium-sized step back in the field would make Rafaela’s bat unplayable in an everyday role. There’s also the possibility that Wilyer Abreu continues to run eye-watering platoon splits, so Rafaela ends up starting in center most days, then moving over to right against left-handed starters while Jarren Duran takes over center. That would seem to be a less challenging task than being pressed into emergency infield duty. Lastly, a very foreseeable future includes Rafaela as an overpaid, but nonetheless excellent fourth outfielder, serving as a great defensive replacement and pinch runner. But as the team is constituted right now, the best way forward is to let Rafaela become the best center fielder he can possibly be. It’s encouraging that Breslow sees that.