Four Alarming Trends Red Sox's Offense Must Snap Out of Before Postseason

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

During their historic streak that changed the season between July 3 and August 7, the Boston Red Sox played to a 27-3 record and scored 180 runs, averaging six per game. The great comeback began when the Red Sox were playing to a 37-48 record and ended at 64-51, 13 games over .500. In just 36 days, the season took a complete turn and, from then on, the organization began thinking about the postseason.

However, they have reached the end of the regular season in a very different situation. In their first 21 games of September, they have averaged 3.0 runs per game, half of what they achieved during that historic winning streak. Let’s explore here some of the most alarming trends the Red Sox offense is leaving us with at this end of the second half of the season.

Wilyer Abreu Has Stopped Pulling the Ball In September

Wilyer Abreu continues to make a difference as one of the Red Sox’s key hitters, especially during this second half, with a 122 wRC+ after recording a 109 mark in the first. His profile remains consistent against both sides, with a 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 vs RHP, but where he has stood out the most is in pressure situations, recording a 113 wRC+ with RISP and a 123 wRC+ in high-leverage situations.

Abreu has found company in Caleb Durbin, another one of the bats that has responded best during this stretch, while Willson Contreras, the main man of the offense, has missed time on the injured list. However, the right fielder has fallen off this September, although the sample is still not enough to consider it concerning. After an August in which he hit .279/.384/.587 with seven home runs, his production fell to .225/.304/.352 this month, with just one home run on his ledger.

The drop also appears in the quality of his contact, as his hard-hit rate went from 49.4% in August to 39.6% now. Abreu is seeing more pitches that prevent him from unleashing his ability to pull the ball, to the point that his Pull% fell from 43.5% to 26.4%. That may be the worst trend entering the postseason, as he's at his absolute best when slugging balls to right field.

Adley Rutschman Is Failing Against Lefties and In the Clutch

We know the great complement that Rutschman provides with his talent, bringing an elite bat and good defense at his best. But the backstop, even before arriving at the Red Sox at the trade deadline, was already going through many offensive problems. Right now, he is the clearest case of a devastating offensive decline. His wRC+ went from 115 in the first half of the season to 79 after the All-Star break, but the strongest signal is in his marked problems against lefties, against whom he has recorded a -21 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances (.139/.139/.194) in this second half of the season.

Rutschman improves when he bats from the left side, and the hope is that he continues hitting righties as he has done in general, producing a 121 wRC+. But his problems at the plate do not end here, as he has not fulfilled his offensive role at least with the expectations the Red Sox had in the moments that define games. In high-leverage situations, he has collapsed to a -80 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances during this second half of the season, with a .067/.067/.067 slash line. The sample is small, but it could carry a lot of weight in a tense three-game Wild Card Series.

Roman Anthony Has Gotten Too Aggressive

The clearest signal in Roman Anthony's struggles is against lefties, precisely one of his strengths last year, when he averaged a solid .438 BABIP and 113 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. In the second half this year, he has a 42 wRC+ in 39 PAs, to go along with a .189/.231/.297 slash line, .235 wOBA and .207 BABIP. The story changes against righties, with a 133 wRC+ and .366 wOBA. The difference is enormous.

As you can see in this graph, since his return at the end of August, Anthony has had a high rate of swings and misses in the outside area, especially chasing pitches in several parts outside the strike zone. At the most important moment of the season, Anthony will need to show incredible maturity to rein in his aggressiveness at the plate.

Can Jarren Duran Improve On Last Year's Postseason Slump?

With the unfortunate injury to Mickey Gasper, Duran’s role could be more important than perhaps expected heading into October. His second half has been better than the first, but his recovery has been far from productive in the situations of greatest pressure. He had just 35 wRC+ in 27 high-leverage plate appearances, with a .130/.259/.304 slash, and could be considered the worst hitter on the team after recording a 60 wRC+ in 68 PAs with RISP during the second half of the season. In whatever role Boston plans for Duran as a starter, he will have to change that recent history.

What seems a little contradictory is that Duran’s problem has not been against lefties, against whom he has averaged a 99 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Surprised? Well, yes, it has been the righties who have limited his swing to just a 71 wRC+ and an offensive line of .214/.279/.321. Duran will need to draw on his experience for this moment, as he entered last season's postseason run in a similar state of decline.

What was the result? He finished 1-for-11 with four strikeouts and no walks against the pitching of the New York Yankees in the Red Sox’s loss in the Wild Card Series.

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