Is Willson Contreras Primed for A Second-Half Power Outage? What History Has to Say About Fabled "Home Run Derby Curse"

[Ryan Salvaggio]

Major League Baseball’s All-Star festivities have come and gone, and while the game itself may have been a bit of a snooze-fest to those who prefer offensive slugfests to a pitching-and-defense clinic, one thing we all can agree is that the removal of the clock in the Home Run Derby was one of the smartest decisions the league has made in recent years. This coming from someone who may be in the minority of actually liking the clock when it was first implemented way back in 2015, leading to one of the most electric and entertaining derby finishes in league history when Todd Frazier knocked off Joc Pederson with a homer in the final seconds to win the title. 

After watching Jordan Walker’s six home runs at sudden death to quite literally walk-off with the win over hometown favorite Kyle Schwarber though, I have no doubt saying that performance triumphs the Frazier one by a mile.

Clock or no clock, Red Sox fans had plenty of reasons to tune in regardless with the inclusion of Willson Contreras, the first Boston participant since 2011 when Adrian Gonzalez and reigning derby champ David Ortiz both took part in the event. Contreras did not disappoint, as not only did he start the event off with a literal bang — hitting 13 homers with three being the longest of the first round, including a 490-foot bomb that fell short to only Junior Caminero’s 491-footer in round two — but also embracing his villain role so much as to almost knock off the clear fan favorite Schwarber in the second round, falling 9-8 to the Phillies and former Red Sox superstar. 

With Contreras’ inclusion, there will surely be fans that are convinced his swing is now “messed up” and his production will take a dip in the second half thanks to the alleged “Home Run Derby Curse.” The question is though, is that “curse” just a myth? Or is there actually some merit behind it that fans should be wary of for a player who has been, and will continue to need to be the driving force of getting Boston to a playoff spot?

Second Half Spotlights: Do Previous Participants Give Any Insights into a ‘Derby Curse?’   

When looking into the question of “Does the Home Run Derby ruin swings and cause second half slumps?”, it’s important to note that the “second half” of the baseball season doesn’t even technically exist. Take this year's Red Sox schedule for example; the true halfway mark occurred on Saturday, June 27 with their 4-1 win over the Yankees, a date that put them exactly at the 81-game mark. When the Sox return from the break on Friday, July 17, there will be 68 games remaining as opposed to the 94 that already took place. 

Take a step back to last year, and the Red Sox first and second halves had a 98/64 game split. In 2024, it was a 96/66 split, and if you want to go all the way back to 2011 when they had their last two participants in Gonzalez and Ortiz, that season saw a little bit of a better distribution of 90 first-half games to 72 second-half ones, but that's still not a truly even 81-81 game split. 

That means samples are smaller in the second half, and the opportunity to total big home run and extra-base hits numbers is lower. Below is a summary of the 2025 and 2024 Home Run Derby participants along with their first and second half splits, and any noteworthy injuries, absences, and or storylines that may have occurred:

2025 Derby Participants

Looking at the 2025 derby participants, a few noticeable trends emerge. For starters, while Cal Raleigh’s numbers do drop off compared to his first half ones, the 22 homers, .526 slug, .297 ISO and 140 wRC+ don’t indicate any sort of slump or curse by any means. Keep in mind at that time, Raleigh was also attempting to (and did) break the all-time single season home run records for a catcher, switch-hitter, and Mariners player, adding a more psychological factor/pressure into the equation as well.

Then there are the cases of Matt Olson and Junior Caminero, who not only continued to put up consistent numbers half to half, but were actually better statistically when it came to their average, on-base, slugging, ISO, and wRC+ totals, showing no signs of any sort of HR Derby fatigue. Brent Rooker is really the only player you could make the case for when it comes to the derby affecting his second half performance with how his numbers dropped off. 

As for the dip in Oneil Cruz’s, Byron Buxton’s, and James Wood’s production, all three can be attributed to injuries that were suffered during the second half rather than in the derby itself, as Cruz missed 13 games due to head (11) and ankle (2) injuries, Buxton 14 to side (13) and knee (1) ailments, and Wood, who although didn’t miss any significant time, is on record for saying nagging knee and quadriceps soreness helped factor into his rough second half.     

2024 Derby Participants

A review of the 2024 derby participants shows a similar trend of no player really being all that affected by any sort of derby curse. Teoscar Hernandez, Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonso all followed similar paths to Caminero and Olson in using the derby to springboard better performances across multiple stats rather than just home runs and RBIs. Adolis Garcia and Gunnar Henderson may have seen significant drops in their home run numbers, indicating a bit of a power outage, but again showed solid enough numbers to not raise any red flags of a definitive curse. As for Alec Bohm, he falls into the same category of 2025’s Buxton and Cruz, missing 14 games throughout August and September with a hand injury that significantly hampered his second-half production.

Recent Red Sox Participants

For a look that hits closer to home in terms of any sort of curse affecting the Red Sox, you of course have to start with that infamous 2011 season for the most recent example — one that may actually help those who argue the derby does mess with players’ swings and production. In the midst of everything else that went wrong that year, two key contributors to that collapse were the falloffs in home run and RBI production from David Ortiz and derby runner-up Adrian Gonzalez. 

The argument for any sort of curse quickly falls apart, though, when you factor in that Ortiz was dealing with fatigue, soreness, and back spasms during that second half along with the fact that both players numbers didn’t completely fall off a cliff. Ortiz still managed to slash .315/.409/.527 with a wRC+ of 150 and Gonzalez posted a 137 wRC+ with a line of .317/.404/.489. Those are elite numbers. Not to mention once again that everything that could go wrong, did go wrong with that team, leaving some to wonder if the whole team had been cursed rather than just two derby participants.

In terms of Ortiz, who took part in the event four times prior, including a victory in 2010, his second half production had never really taken a dip and was actually more consistent and at times better than any other player that’s been looked at thus far (which may be an unfair comparison to make given the level of hitter Ortiz was throughout his illustrious Hall of Fame career).

What’s in Store for Willson Contreras in the Second Half? 

By now it seems pretty clear that the answer to the question of “Does the Home Run Derby ruin a player's swing?” is a resounding "no," meaning Red Sox fans should have nothing to worry about when it comes to Willson Contreras’ production at the plate. However, that isn’t where the concerns with Contreras should lay given his history in the league. In the 10 years he spent prior to Boston, excluding the 2020 pandemic-shortened year where there was no second half to the season, Contreras has missed a total of 180 games (not factoring in regular off-days). The makeup of these games missed include: 174 due to an injury, five due to suspension, and one from an undisclosed circumstance last season with St. Louis.   

Looking at his splits year-to-year, Contreras has proven to be a pretty consistent player all things considered, with the only two really glaring drop-offs occurring in 2018 and 2019 with the Cubs where his wRC+ figures plummeted from 123 to 63 and 139 to 90. As great as Contreras may be, his Achilles heel comes in the age-old saying: “The best ability is availability.”   

When the Sox return to action on Friday, kicking off the second half with a doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Rays, Contreras will be using the first to serve the fifth and final game of his reduced suspension stemming from his benches-clearing incident with Nationals starter Cade Cavalli. Once he is officially back, the All-Star slugger will look to make good on his comments of loving Boston and wanting to finish his career here trying to build off a superb first half that saw him finish just four home runs and 19 RBIs shy of his career highs.

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