Brayan Bello Will Look to Turn Around His and the Teams Performance Against Brewers

[Sam Stargell]

Brayan Bello has regressed from the Opening Day starter in 2024 to the fifth starter in 2026’s rotation, at least the first time through. Many projected him as the fourth starter for this season given that the Red Sox added Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez in a pair of deals this offseason to slide in behind staff ace Garrett Crochet. Even when you consider the talent added to the rotation since 2024, this slide feels like a bit of a challenge to Bello to prove what he can bring to the table this year and the subsequent four remaining seasons he is under contract in Boston. 

His first opportunity of the season came last Tuesday evening in Houston as he took the mound against the Astros. To put it lightly, it did not go well. 

With a quick look at the box score, the first handful of innings looked like a fine start, giving up 1 run in the first and two more in the third with scoreless innings in the second and fourth. But then it all fell apart. Bello gave up three more runs in the 5th putting the Red Sox in a 6-1 hole that they would not ultimately be able to climb out of. 

Beyond the box score, Bello threw 92 pitches across 4 ⅔ innings striking out two batters and walking three. It is safe to say that it was a pretty inefficient outing. 

Of his 92 pitches, 58 of them were strikes either in the zone or swung at and missed by batters. The 58 strikes statistic looks better than it was, only 38 of his pitches were actually thrown in the zone. Part of a pitcher's job is to generate swing and miss by getting batters to chase out of the zone, but if Bello is to turn things around in his second start, he should begin by attacking the zone more. 

However, he will locate well while offering inside the zone, because his expected batting average against and expected slugging against are both bottom 4% in the majors so far this season. These stats mean that when a batter hits the ball in play off of Bello it is likely to end up as a hit, and often for extra bases. He did not induce weak contact for groundouts or flyouts, but gave up hits for real damage. xBA and xSLG also remove the impact of the defense behind him, so this truly reflects Bello’s impact. It will definitely need to be addressed if Bello wants to contribute to limiting runs. 

Bello’s pitch mix also offers intrigue. Per Baseball Savant, he brought back a curveball not used since 2022. While he offered it up only six times, it will be interesting to see if he includes that in his arsenal consistently in 2026. Otherwise he relied heavily on the sinker, cutter, and sweeper with lighter use of his changeup and four seamer offerings in a complimentary role. His use of those five pitches closely mimicked the 2025 season, so fans should know what to expect. 

His next outing comes today as the Boston Red Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers, and the pressure is on. The Red Sox hold the league's worst record at 2-7 and the vibes might be even worse. Sunday was brutal with an early lead blown en route to an 8-6 loss. Players and Manager Alex Cora alike showed clear frustration in post game interviews. It's still very early in the season, but the Red Sox must turn it around soon and begin to perform to the level many expected of this talented roster. The responsibility will be Bello’s to help right the ship.

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