Sam Stargell

Less than two weeks out from the trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox are in the midst of their hottest run since 1948. This stretch of 14 straight wins has vaulted them back into the AL playoff race after a dismal start to the year. Who would have thought they’d be here at this point? After watching Alex Cora get fired, losing ace Garrett Crochet and up-an-coming star Roman Anthony to the injured list, and an uninspired offense through the first half of the season, many fans nearly threw in the towel. But here we are. The Red Sox hold sole possession of the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League. In the AL East, they are still a sizable six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.5 games behind the second-place New York Yankees. But hey, that is a huge leap from the whopping 14.5 games behind they were just one month ago on June 20 Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to tip his hand as to his trade deadline approach. What we do know is that where the team stands in comparison to the rest of their division and the American League overall will play a big factor in what the front office decides to do. Organizational Outlook I have mixed feelings when a front office says that they are making big internal additions in reference to having players come back from the IL. While I hope that isn't what we hear from the Red Sox in the coming weeks, the list of players who have the potential to return is extensive. With Ranger Suarez, Connelly Early, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Garrett Crochet slated to return in phases between now and the end of the season, it is safe to say that the internal reinforcements will definitely help. Even without them, the roster currently at the disposal of manager Chad Tracy has been the catalyst behind the recent run. They will lose, eventually. But if they can keep playing well, taking advantage of opportunities, and continue to hit for power at this higher rate, they will have a chance to play themselves into October. That will be easier said than done, especially since the AL is wide open this season and a lot of teams will be looking to add at the deadline, stay in the mix, and make a push for a wild card spot. Speaking of which... American League East Standing As is usually the case, the AL East has several of MLB’s leading contenders within the division. We know about the New York Yankees. They will have a winning record (33 straight years), make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. They have held their own without Aaron Judge so far, but they need him back healthy to have the best chance down the stretch. What we also know about the Yankees is that they will look to make a splash at the deadline. Consider them a true contender. The Tampa Bay Rays, fresh off being swept in four games by the Red Sox, still hold the American League’s best record. With talent development, a young star like Junior Caminero getting MVP consideration, and a seasoned manager like Kevin Cash, the Rays will be fighting until the end. Look for them to add modestly at the deadline as well. The way that they have played this year should give them enough confidence to push for a deep run in October. While the Red Sox have leap-frogged the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays in the standings, they cannot be counted out. The Orioles were on their own seven-game winning streak until they lost to the Red Sox on Monday. As for the team north of the border, well, they have largely the same roster that took them to a World Series appearance last season. If they become healthy and get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to start hitting again, they too have the talent to make a run. To summarize, no team in the AL East is out of contention yet. They could all look to add at the deadline. While only time will tell, the Red Sox have their work cut out for them in this division. American League Wild Card Standing Zooming out to the rest of the American league, many teams are vying for those coveted three Wild Card slots. Right now, the AL East holds two of them thanks to the Yankees and Red Sox. The AL Central holds one via the Cleveland Guardians, but they are only a game back of the Chicago White Sox in the division, so those two teams may fluctuate. The AL West-leading Seattle Mariners are the only team in that division to hold a playoff spot. Who is outside the playoffs currently but still within striking distance? For the sake of this discussion, lets consider teams within six games still in contention. With that said, there is a huge crowd of six more teams still in the mix including the Texas Rangers, Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Blue Jays, and Detroit Tigers. A whopping 12 teams in the American League still believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. In other words, 80% of the league could be looking to add talent at the deadline to make a push. While I don’t believe all of those teams are in the same tier, that is a lot to sort through whether you are a fan or a front office. Each of these teams has a reason to believe. Let's start with the two 2025 playoff teams looking to return. The Blue Jays, if they can turn things around, seem like they have the highest potential to threaten the teams currently in. The talent on their roster, star power, and experience from a World Series appearance are all potential beacons of hope. As for the Tigers, they have the best pitcher on the planet in Tarik Skubal, a +31 run differential, and star rookie Kevin McGonigle. The hunger to get back into the playoffs doesn’t end there. The Orioles have played good baseball as of late and have a lot of thump in their lineup. The Minnesota Twins are getting a career season out of Byron Buxton. The Houston Astros have Yordan Alvarez, who is the current favorite for the AL MVP award and has a chance at the batting triple crown. Lastly, the Rangers have a strong rotation and a well-rounded lineup capable of hitting for power and average. In recent days though, no team has more reason to believe than the Boston Red Sox. They have one of the best rotations in MLB. That may still be true even if they trade Sonny Gray ahead of the deadline. They have a +46 run differential. They are playing better defense of late, something that the teams of recent years under Alex Cora chased but couldn't attain. First baseman Willson Contreras may be the signing of the offseason across all of MLB. For a team that was down and nearly completely out just a month ago, they are now in as good a position as any. Grab the popcorn, the stretch run is going to be one heck of a show. View full article

The Boston Red Sox lineup provided improved output in the month of May compared to the slower start of March and April. In April, the Red Sox as a team had a slash line of .236/.312/.354, good for 22nd, 24th, and 28th respectively in MLB during that stretch. For a more robust view at their offensive production in April, they had a 86 wRC+, which was 28th in MLB. That was not the start the Red Sox were looking for. While there is still plenty of room for improvement for Boston, we saw the lineup take a step in the right direction in May. The club had a slash line of .265/.330/.406 ranking 2nd, 6th, and 9th in each respective statistic. Their output culminated in a 103 wRC+, top-11 in MLB. The charge has been led by several Red Sox who found their groove at the plate in May. Ranking Red Sox's Best Hitters in May #3: Ceddanne Rafaela May Stats: .286 AVG, .346 OBP, 19.6 K%, 6.5 BB%, .194 ISO, 127 wRC+ In May, Ceddanne Rafaela led the team with seven doubles while tying for second in hits, home runs, and RBIs. Overall, it was a really productive month at the plate for the already-elite defensive center fielder, culminating in a 127 wRC+. It is great to see Rafaela put everything together like this. With elite defense and flashes of offensive contributions like we saw in May, paired with his remaining contract through 2031, he feels like a building block for a Red Sox team that has struggled this year. He can improve even more by focusing on his plate discipline and taking a few more walks. The 6.5 BB% from last month is an improvement but still low; getting a free base more often and putting his speed on the basepaths only bodes well for the Red Sox. #2: Jarren Duran May Stats: .261 AVG, .331 OBP, 29.2 K%, 8.5 BB%, .287 ISO, 137 wRC+ Jarren Duran had a bit of a power surge this month, homering nine times leading to a .287 ISO which was top-12 in MLB over that span. Duran also totaled a team-leading 30 hits and 22 RBIs. Overall, his recent production has been a welcomed sight to see for the fans. His performance has even led to trade rumors resurfacing. One thing Duran should look to improve is the high strikeout percentage, 29.2%, that he carried throughout the month. His season strikeout rate sits at 27.7%. Even lowering this a few ticks to the roughly 24% we have seen from him over the last several seasons would grant him the more well-rounded profile we saw during his breakout 2024 campaign. #1: Willson Contreras May Stats: .315 AVG, .394 OBP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, .213 ISO, 151 wRC+ Willson Contreras has been Boston’s best hitter all season, and it hasn’t been close. Wilyer Abreu was making it interesting earlier in the season but took a step back in May, and while we have seen Duran rise as previously mentioned, Contreras has been the most consistent. While the power faded a bit in May, totaling only four home runs last month, he managed to be productive in almost every other way. He produced a .315 average with a solid 8.7% walk rate leading to an elite on base percentage of .394. When you are on base that often, you are giving the guys behind you in the lineup a chance to do damage consistently. The more this happens, the better the team tends to do. That is exactly what has happened for the Boston Red Sox offense over the last four series, averaging 5.3 runs a game and scoring five or more runs in seven of their last 12 games. The offense, led by Rafaela, Duran, and Contreras, saw an improvement in May. They will look to build on that in the month of June with a gauntlet of divisional matchups ahead as well as a trip to Seattle to take on a surging Mariners team. The outcome of these next few weeks, largely driven by this group of hitters, will have sway to the outlook of the rest of the season and the Red Sox's trade deadline plans. View full article

Payton TolleFranklin AriasKyson WitherspoonJuan ValeraJustin GonzalesAnthony EyansonJake BennettDorian SotoMarcus PhillipsMikey RomeroHenry GodboutTyler UberstineEnddy AzocarMiguel BleisJohn HolobetzHayden MullinsYoeilin CespedesNelly TaylorConrad CasonJohanfran Garcia

Wilyer Abreu was quiet this past weekend in St. Louis. But through two and a half weeks, his 2026 campaign has been anything but. Entering this offseason, there were a lot of question marks about the Boston Red Sox offensive outlook moving forward. When the front office left a handful of those questions unanswered, baseball experts and fans alike were left wondering where hits and runs would come from. Abreu quickly became a lead candidate of internal options that would have to take a step forward if the team was going to achieve its goals of getting back to the playoffs this coming fall. So far, he's more than answered the call. Across MLB, Abreu is 7th in hits, 12th in BA, 13th in SLG, and 16th in OPS. Those marks are all good for first among Red Sox hitters, as his team-leading 178 wRC+. In general, he sits at or near the top in every other offensive statistic for a Red Sox team that desperately needed a hitter to step up and do consistent damage. What has led to Abreu’s early success this season? To start, when he swings, he is making a lot of contact. His zone-contact percentage, which measures his contact percentage when he swings at pitches in the strike zone, has steadily climbed throughout his career but now sits at 88.1%. For pitches out of the zone, he is chasing right around his career average, but this season he is making more contact when he chases at 55.2%, well above his career average. Contact is a great start, but it is what he is doing with the contact that really matters. His barrel percentage and hard-hit rate are both at career highs at 14.6% and 50.0%, respectively. While not his absolute best, his max exit velocity this season is 113.1 MPH, which is harder than any ball he hit in 2025. That kind of contact quality is what leads to All-Star nods, Silver Sluggers, and, potentially, MVP votes. Maybe the biggest question was if Abreu could hit better against lefties as he began a full-time role sans a platoon split. The numbers tell the story. His career slash line split against lefties is .219/.278/.336 with a .286 BABIP. His slash line split against lefties in 2026 is .333/.375/.467 with a 137 wRC+. Obviously, we are only in mid-April, but the early returns are cause for optimism. If the rest of the team has you feeling pessimistic, it's fair to point out that his walk rate is at a career low 7.5%, which is more than two points below last year. This should steady as the season goes on, but it is something to keep an eye out for. All in all, his contributions on both offense and defense have been worth 1.0 fWAR, which is tied for the fifth-highest mark in baseball. There is no doubt that Abreu has been a catalyst for a Red Sox's offense that's weathering slow starts from nearly everyone else. Abreu will look to carry the momentum forward and if his teammates team follow his lead, they will find themselves playing in October. View full article

Brayan Bello has regressed from the Opening Day starter in 2024 to the fifth starter in 2026’s rotation, at least the first time through. Many projected him as the fourth starter for this season given that the Red Sox added Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez in a pair of deals this offseason to slide in behind staff ace Garrett Crochet. Even when you consider the talent added to the rotation since 2024, this slide feels like a bit of a challenge to Bello to prove what he can bring to the table this year and the subsequent four remaining seasons he is under contract in Boston. His first opportunity of the season came last Tuesday evening in Houston as he took the mound against the Astros. To put it lightly, it did not go well. With a quick look at the box score, the first handful of innings looked like a fine start, giving up 1 run in the first and two more in the third with scoreless innings in the second and fourth. But then it all fell apart. Bello gave up three more runs in the 5th putting the Red Sox in a 6-1 hole that they would not ultimately be able to climb out of. Beyond the box score, Bello threw 92 pitches across 4 ⅔ innings striking out two batters and walking three. It is safe to say that it was a pretty inefficient outing. Of his 92 pitches, 58 of them were strikes either in the zone or swung at and missed by batters. The 58 strikes statistic looks better than it was, only 38 of his pitches were actually thrown in the zone. Part of a pitcher's job is to generate swing and miss by getting batters to chase out of the zone, but if Bello is to turn things around in his second start, he should begin by attacking the zone more. However, he will locate well while offering inside the zone, because his expected batting average against and expected slugging against are both bottom 4% in the majors so far this season. These stats mean that when a batter hits the ball in play off of Bello it is likely to end up as a hit, and often for extra bases. He did not induce weak contact for groundouts or flyouts, but gave up hits for real damage. xBA and xSLG also remove the impact of the defense behind him, so this truly reflects Bello’s impact. It will definitely need to be addressed if Bello wants to contribute to limiting runs. Bello’s pitch mix also offers intrigue. Per Baseball Savant, he brought back a curveball not used since 2022. While he offered it up only six times, it will be interesting to see if he includes that in his arsenal consistently in 2026. Otherwise he relied heavily on the sinker, cutter, and sweeper with lighter use of his changeup and four seamer offerings in a complimentary role. His use of those five pitches closely mimicked the 2025 season, so fans should know what to expect. His next outing comes today as the Boston Red Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers, and the pressure is on. The Red Sox hold the league's worst record at 2-7 and the vibes might be even worse. Sunday was brutal with an early lead blown en route to an 8-6 loss. Players and Manager Alex Cora alike showed clear frustration in post game interviews. It's still very early in the season, but the Red Sox must turn it around soon and begin to perform to the level many expected of this talented roster. The responsibility will be Bello’s to help right the ship. View full article