Rationality to a Fault: Alex Bregman Must Remain A Red Sox Fixture

[Jack Lindsay]

Alex Bregman remains a hot topic on the free-agent market as two of the biggest names, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, are now off the board. That leaves Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kyle Tucker as the top remaining bats still searching for a home.

Boston had been linked to Bichette earlier in December, but Julian McWilliams reported on December 9 that “the Red Sox are no longer involved with Bo Bichette unless his market changes drastically.” That development leaves Bregman as the premier hitter connected to the Sox, in a market that has noticeably picked up pace over the past week.

The looming question for Craig Breslow and the front office remains: Despite the successes of the 2025 season, should the Red Sox look to retain Bregman’s services going forward?

The answer is unequivocally yes.

Before getting there, it is worth summarizing the recent developments surrounding Bregman and his market, as he has gradually moved out of Boston’s presumed grasp and into the orbit of other teams.

On December 11, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported the following:

“Mega-agent Scott Boras, representing Alex Bregman, the top free-agent third baseman on the market, has initiated discussions with the Mariners to express Bregman’s willingness to consider Seattle as a destination, an industry source told The Times.”

That report suggested the market may not have been moving at the pace Bregman originally anticipated. When an agent reaches out to a team rather than the other way around, it signals a lack of leverage and likely did little to increase the Red Sox’s sense of urgency. Chris Cotillo of MassLive echoed that sentiment shortly thereafter.

Then, on December 16, the dam broke.

Jeff Passan reported on December 18 that Bregman is seeking a long-term deal after taking a short-term contract last offseason. Ken Rosenthal added in The Athletic that the Diamondbacks could pursue Bregman while keeping Ketel Marte, though such an outcome appears unlikely.

The idea of the Red Sox offering a long-term contract to a player over the age of 30 runs counter to their recent history. Even this offseason, they lost out on Pete Alonso to a division rival after refusing to go to the necessary lengths, a pattern that mirrors their approach with Schwarber as well.

In fact, the only player on the current roster signed as a free agent to what could reasonably be considered a long-term deal of four or more years and over $100 million is Trevor Story. To their credit, the Red Sox have committed to intelligent extensions with Ceddanne Rafaela, Kristian Campbell, Brayan Bello, Roman Anthony, and Garrett Crochet.

Still, the organizational theme is clear: a reluctance to deviate from “the model.” While the back half of contracts with older free agents often becomes inefficient, there is real value in maximizing the short-term window. Craig Breslow has demonstrated sharp decision-making in trades and roster construction, but at some point, he needs to be comfortable being uncomfortable. 

Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman once said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you’ll finish third on every free agent.” Breslow and company have been too rational. Even last offseason, it felt as though Breslow was backed into offering Bregman a one-year, $40 million deal simply to avoid the risk of committing four-plus years to a 30-year-old. 

@Maddie Landis dove deeper than I have into the financial decisions of this new-form Red Sox and how their approach contrasts with the Chicago Cubs. It is an excellent piece that expands on the issues I raised here.

Beyond what appears to be a philosophical issue within the modern Red Sox front office, though, it's clear Alex Bregman needs to be brought back.

 

He is one of only three free agents projected by FanGraphs to produce at least 4.0 fWAR. A model of consistency, Bregman has not posted a wRC+ below 114 since his rookie season, has never recorded a strikeout rate above 15.5 percent, and has hit at least 12 home runs in every full season except his rookie year and the shortened 2020 campaign.

According to data from TJStats, Bregman remains one of the elite bat-to-ball hitters in the sport. That profile is especially relevant given that the Red Sox ranked sixth in O-Swing percentage at 29.4 percent, 19th in Z-Contact percentage at 85.2 percent, 25th in overall Contact percentage at 75.8 percent, and 10th in strikeout rate at 22.9 percent.

His off-field presence may be just as valuable as his production at third base or in the batter’s box. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer have both spoken about Bregman’s influence on their approach. Carlos Narváez recounted Bregman calling him at 2 a.m. to discuss hitting mechanics and consistently seeking extra cage work with teammates. Even Connelly Early has described how Bregman sat down with him after his debut to discuss pitch tipping.

If the Red Sox commit to Bregman, or a player of his caliber, on a long-term deal, it would signal a commitment to championships rather than an exclusive focus on optimal future outcomes. This is already a playoff-caliber roster, and with the right moves, it can become a legitimate championship contender.

It is time for Breslow to move beyond the model.

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