Kazuma Okamoto, Not Munetaka Murakami, Should Be Red Sox's Big Free Agent Swing This Offseason

[Brandon Glick]

Ever since the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Munetaka Murakami has been the Japanese player MLB teams have been waiting for. Sure, Yoshinobu Yamamoto arrived to the states 2024 with the largest-ever contract for a pitcher in hand and Roki Sasaki followed suit by choosing the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter, but Murakami was the one with 56-homer power. At just 25 years old, the "Babe Ruth of Higo" is finally a free agent; DiamondCentric projects him to earn $92 million over four years, or $23 million per season before accounting for his posting fee. Most other prognosticators figure him a lock for a nine-figure deal.

The issue with Murakami isn't that his upside is limited. On the contrary, he may be one of the most prolifically-talented baseball in the world. The problem is that, for as towering as his ceiling is, his floor may stoop even lower.

That 2022 season was truly legendary, as he won the Central League Triple Crown while hitting .318 with 134 RBIs. He's hit 246 home runs in 892 career games in NPB, good for a 162-game pace of 44.67. There's no denying those numbers, nor the potential they invite. But there's also no denying that Murakami has struck out nearly 29% of the time over the last three seasons combined, nor can one hide the fact that he simply cannot hit high-velocity fastballs. As you may know, MLB pitchers tend to throw harder than their counterparts in the NPB; Murakami's swing-and-miss issues are more likely to be exacerbated, not fixed, upon his arrival to the states.

Contrast that with Kazuma Okamoto, who possesses similar power (he averaged 33.1 home runs per year from 2018-24) but far fewer projectability concerns (he ran equal 11.3% walk and strikeout rates in 2025). Yes, Okamoto is four years older than Murakami, and like his compatriot, is unlikely to have the defensive skills to stick at third base over the long term. Luckily, the Red Sox have an opening at first base as well, where the 29-year-old NPB star should thrive.

Okamoto's contact skills have only improved with age, and he topped out at an 80.4% contact rate (total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches) in 2025. Though an elbow injury limited to just 69 games, he still hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 home runs and a 210 wRC+. He's simply a safer bet than his fellow Japanese slugger, especially when you consider he actually thrives against velocity.

The Red Sox, along with the Blue Jays and... Pirates(?) have been named as some of the most aggressive suitors in the Okamoto sweepstakes. His right-handed power would fit nicely into Alex Bregman's vacated spot in the middle of the lineup, particularly if Boston wants to run a L-R-L-R-L gauntlet at the top of the order with Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Okamoto, and Wilyer Abreu.

The Winter Meetings should reveal a lot more into both stars' markets (as well as Tatsuya Imai's free agency venture), given that their posting deadlines expire on Dec. 22 (Murakami) and Jan. 4 (Okamoto), respectively. Expect the Red Sox to be in on both players, but when push comes to shove, it should surprise no one when they chose the elder slugger over his revered counterpart.

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[VMac]

I will not stand for the Tristan Casas shade.

[JoeBrady]

I've saying this for a while.  With Okamoto, you don't have to worry about whether or not Casas is healthy, you have a great substitute for Mayer against tough lefties, as well as taking some ABs from Yoshida.  And cheaper and shorter duration than Alonso.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, VMac said:

I will not stand for the Tristan Casas shade.

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