Sonny Gray Brings A Veteran's Arsenal To Boston

[Maddie Landis]

Late Tuesday morning, Jeff Passan reported that the Red Sox were trading pitchers Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts in exchange for Sonny Gray and $20 million in cash. Gray’s base 2026 salary is $31 million and includes a $10 million mutual buyout option, so his total salary minus the $20 million in cash is $21 million.

Gray, a November Scorpio, turned 36 this month. The former Vanderbilt Commodore has played for five different teams (Athletics: 2013-17, Yankees: 2017-18, Reds: 2019-21, Twins: 2022-23, and Cardinals: 2024-25) in the majors throughout his 13-year career. The Red Sox mark his sixth team, meaning he’s played for 20% of the league.

Is age merely a number? In his age-35 season, Gray’s 2025 performance (21.7% K-BB% [seventh among qualified pitchers], 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, and 3.6 fWAR) was significantly better than any Red Sox pitcher not named Garrett Crochet. Let’s dive into Gray’s arsenal.

Gray’s pitch mix graph might be one of the most intensive that I’ve stumbled upon on Baseball Savant. With the plethora of colors, curves, and abrupt breaks, it resembles something akin to a Japanese subway station map. The biggest takeaway from the graph is that Gray has adapted consistently throughout his career. You can see how Gray has dropped the use of his four-seamer and sinker, while leaning more on his breaking pitches (curveball and sweeper) in his mid-thirties.

Four-Seamer (22.3%)

Gray’s four-seamer has never been a dominant pitch. It hit an all-time low in velocity (91.7 mph) and strikeout rate (4.6%) this past season. With only 10.5 inches (ranked 422 out of 438) of induced vertical break, the pitch doesn’t generate much rise. Unsurprisingly, Gray’s four-seamer yielded a .376 BA and .584 SLG, which were higher than his .360 xBA and .573 xSLG. The strongest tools in Gray’s arsenal are his breaking pitches, so he aligns with the Red Sox pitching lab’s paradigm of tossing more breaking balls and limiting fastball usage.

Sweeper (19.3%)

Gray’s sweeper is his bread and butter. Among qualified pitchers, the pitch posted the highest strikeout rate (51.2%), the fourth-highest whiff rate (42.3%), and the fifth-highest run value (7). With 42.0 inches of vertical drop and 14.9 inches of horizontal break, Gray’s sweeper has a more distinct sinking effect. If you want a primer on the dominance of Gray’s sweeper, check out this thread on Twitter.

Curveball (18.3%)

Gray recorded a 35.4% put-away rate with his curveball, the highest in baseball. Compared to the previous season (13.9% pitch rate), he threw the pitch more often, and its usage reached an all-time high in September. Opposing batters struggled against the pitch (150 BA, .156 xBA, .173 wOBA, and .182 xWOBA).

Sinker (17.4%)

Gray’s sinker saw a decline this season. Last year, it dropped from a +5 run value and 105 Stuff+ to 1 and 97 mark, respectively. He yielded 25 home runs: six on his four-seamer, five on his sweeper, three on his curveball, three on his changeup, one on his cutter, and seven on his sinker, the most of any pitch. Opposing batters started making more contact on Gray’s sinker, and the pitch saw a significant jump in slugging percentage from .385 to .477. 

The Rest of Gray’s Arsenal (Cutter: 12.6%, Changeup: 8.4%, Slider: 1.6%, and Slow Curve: 0.1%)

Pitch	Run Value	Stuff+	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	Whiff%	PutAway%	Hard-Hit%
Cutter	-1	91	.424	.380	4.4%	23.3%	30.0%	45.0%
Changeup	-3	80	.464	.436	7.5%	25.6%	27.3%	30.6%
Slider	1	123	.215	.211	30.0%	38.1%	42.9%	28.6%

Gray’s cutter and changeup posted a wOBA higher than their xwOBA, indicating he’s dealt with poor luck on those pitches. His cutter and changeup’s putaway rates are solid, so he’s productive at retiring batters with those pitches, but their low strikeout rates indicate he hasn’t been able to get ahead of batters frequently; Gray’s 26.7% two-strike percentage ranked 403 among the 436 qualified pitchers.

When he was behind in the count this past season, his batted ball rate was alarmingly high (52.9%), and his strikeout rate was low (5.9%). When he was ahead in the account, his batted ball rate plummeted to 2.6% and his strikeout rate increased to 53.2%. Simply put, Gray’s biggest issue is getting to a two-strike count. On a positive note, his first-strike percentage reached an all-time high of 64.7% in 2025. He’s trending in the right direction and may only need to incorporate some pitch sequencing adjustments to put himself in more advantageous counts.

Despite Gray’s slider posting the highest Stuff+ (123) in his arsenal and a strong strikeout rate, he rarely threw the pitch. He seems to have a love-hate relationship with the pitch, dropping it after 2019, bringing it back for the 2021-22 seasons, shelving it again in 2023, and reintroducing it this year. Its velocity dipped from 83.6 mph in 2021 to 83.2 mph before matching its 2019 speed in 2025. If he leans on the pitch more consistently next season, he should get ahead in the count more often.

We’re at the end of Gray’s arsenal! He only threw his slow curveball twice in 2025, so it’s more of a flex than a go-to tool in his mix.

The Red Sox did not extend a $22.05 million qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, allowing Gray to step into Giolito’s role as a mid-rotation starter. Gray has substantially more swing-and-miss stuff than Giolito and doesn’t come with the baggage of injury issues, which bolsters the Red Sox’s pitching staff. Most importantly, the veteran adds some stability behind Garrett Crochet in the rotation. He has been a reliable starter over the past two seasons, tossing 166.1 innings in 2024 and 180.2 in 2025. Cot’s Contracts estimates the Red Sox's 2026 payroll at $216.86 million, leaving $27.13 million to spend before reaching the $244 million luxury tax threshold. Their payroll was $8.72 million over the $241 million threshold in 2025, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re willing to exceed the threshold again next season. 

Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow remarked on the trade, “We felt like there was an opportunity to upgrade our rotation in 2026, and we did that. It’s early in the offseason. There are still opportunities that I anticipate materializing. Exactly what they look like, I’m not sure. But we’re not going to close off any chance to make the team better.”

The Sonny Gray trade marks the first move of the Red Sox’s offseason, and based on Breslow’s comments, they’re poised to pursue additional roster upgrades in the coming weeks and months.

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[ashbury]

Twins fan here.  Most of you need no introduction to this veteran, but I popped in here anyway to say that you're going to love having Sonny on your team (as long as the skills remain where they are, obviously).  He pitches with visible emotion, in a positive way - he'll speak his mind after the game and may sometimes blow off steam, but doesn't burn bridges and as a fan I prefer a player who cares.  My team is starved for post-season success so I'll always remember him with fondness for the five scoreless innings he threw against the Blue Jays in October a couple of years ago that featured a key and gutsy pickoff at second base.  I'd gladly have him back if my team could afford him (spoiler: they couldn't two off-seasons ago and still can't).  Enjoy!

- ashbury (Natick resident 2015-21)