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Posted

They've bottomed out in 2025, but it wasn't too long ago that the Atlanta Braves were the talk of the baseball world.

The 2021 World Series champions went on to win 205 combined games over the next two seasons, ultimately falling short in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies in both campaigns. In conjunction with their recent performance, that's put a damper on what was once MLB's most exciting core of young stars, though the foundation of that winning culture remains intact.

Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies. A veritable list of All-Stars, MVP winners and Cy Young candidates. Those are the core players who signed long-term, team-friendly extensions that greased the wheels for the Braves' run of dominance, as they facilitated external moves like the signing of Marcell Ozuna or the trade for Chris Sale.

Of course, those deals weren't always "team-friendly". The players had to perform well enough to justify that classification. A long-term injury here, or a breakdown in mechanics there could have derailed any one of those deals, which could have sent the whole organization into a tailspin. Spending $21 million per season on Austin Riley at third base is a bargain; spending $36 million combined on, say, Ryan McMahon to cover for an injured Austin Riley at third base is how windows of contention get slammed shut.

That "Braves Model" that was the talk of the town a few years ago never really caught on elsewhere despite the franchise's success because, well, it's not really a model you can just choose to follow. It requires organizational buy-in at every level, from players and coaches to scouts and executives, to execute properly. Look at the Chicago White Sox circa 2021—they won 93 games and the AL Central behind a great farm system and a group of extended youngsters (chiefly Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr.). Then, they finished 81-81 the next season, and the franchise completely collapsed behind horrid front office decisions, poor managing, and a host of nonstop injuries to their young core.

Well, leave it to the Red Sox to take that cautionary tale and brush it aside. The team took the savings from the widely-panned Rafael Devers trade and spent a chunk of them on Roman Anthony, inking the superstar rookie to an eight-year, $130 million extension.

Anthony's contract is by the far the largest of the Red Sox's new core, and the third-largest ever signed by an outfielder under 22 years old (we'll have more on that topic from the excellent @Braden Ramsey later this week). He is now thrust into the face of the franchise role that Acuña assumed with the Braves when he inked his own nine-digit extension as a 21-year-old, and one can only hope he lives up to the MVP and World Series path that Acuña has forged.

As a reminder, in Craig Breslow's tenure, the Red Sox have extended the following pre-arb players:

  • Roman Anthony: eight years and $130 million (begins in 2026, club option for 2034)
  • Brayan Bello: six years and $55 million (began in 2024, club option for 2030)
  • Kristian Campbell: eight years and $60 million (began in 2025, club options for 2033 and 2034)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela: eight years and $50 million (began in 2024, club option for 2032)

That list doesn't include ace Garrett Crochet, who signed in arbitration after being acquired via trade. His contract is for six years and $170 million, and comes equipped with a player option for 2031.

So, that's an ace pitcher, a star outfielder, a solid mid-rotation pitcher, a big-hitting infielder, and a stellar defensive center fielder. That's a pretty solid core to build the future of the team around—they are all under contract through the end of the decade at least—and mirrors the Braves' extensions remarkably well. The team has identified the players it plans to build around, and a few others (Wilyer Abreu, Marcelo Mayer, Carlos Narváez) have proven worthy of being added to this growing list of foundational Red Sox players.

If you didn't believe it before, the Anthony extension (and preceding trade deadline) are loud statements from the organization: This era of Boston baseball will be built from within, and the players who check off the internal development boxes will be rewarded. That's certainly not to say there aren't outside additions coming—Crochet himself is proof that the team will splurge where it deems fit to do so—but it is a commitment to what Craig Breslow and company have been building since they stepped foot inside the front office.

There's no telling how this will all pan out. The Braves were unstoppable until they weren't. The White Sox never even got off the ground. Last year's World Series participants (the Yankees and Dodgers) got there primarily from the contributions of big trade acquisitions and free-agent splurges.

It isn't as flashy as what the Dodgers or Yankees do, but the Red Sox are going for something different—something more sustainable (or, at least, more sustainable than the Yankees; the Dodgers are a one-off freak show in terms of consistent dominance). With Anthony now set to lead the charge, it's hard not to start getting excited about what this new era of Red Sox baseball could look like.


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Posted

The other three that don't have extensions that were identified in the article don't deserve extensions:

1 - Marcelo Mayer plays SS where Story is for the next few years and Mayer can't stay healthy.  He's a HUGE risk due to being injury prone.  Also, we have other excellent SSs in the farm system so he needs to prove a lot more than he's proven so far to get an extension.

2 - Wilyer Abreu can't hit LH pitchers so he's a PLATOON player thanks to a batting average that oscillates above and below .200.  He's a trade chip, not a keeper.  Let's hope Breslow can use him effectively to get pitching.  The outfield for the next decade needs to be Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Refsnyder is an outstanding 4th outfielder.  

3 - Carlos Narvaez has never had a year as good as the 2025 first half.  That's why the Yankees let him go.  That's why he should be considered a back-up catcher at best because he's NEVER hit as well as he has in the first half, much like Wong never hit as well as he did in 2024 and he's proven he's at most a back-up as well with his 2025 performance.  

I believe Breslow is smart enough to realize these three players don't deserve extensions like the best core farm system players that have been extended.  Rafaela is a superstar defender who will contribute significantly on offense and flourish as the RF in the future because he's the best defender in the toughest field at Fenway.  When Cora gets fired and Rafaela finally gets to bat higher in the order his productivity will grow exponentially.  Campbell's first speed bump of his career is ending and he's going to a potential all-star for years to come.  Anthony is the face of the franchise now that Devers has finally been demoted from a position that should have been Mookie's.  And Brayen Bello is finally looking the pitcher who they invested in but for me he is the big question mark.  I'd rather have Houck signed long-term because he has superior pitching skills.  So, add him to the list of players they should extend once Houck gets back from his injury.

Posted

I am now a firm believer that the "Braves Model" is the one to follow.  Not too long ago, I was firmly against locking up any player who was still under team control.  Why pay big bucks for them when you still have them under control for relatively little?

Since free agent contracts have skyrocketed to beyond sane levels, I think it's almost a must to lock these guys up early.

If it were up to me, I'd lock up Mayer, Abreu, and Narvaez as well.  It doesn't have to be this year, and it doesn't have to be as large a contract as Anthony's, but I'd extend them before they get to free agency.  It's always a risk, but one well worth taking, IMO.  

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