Article: Walker Buehler Complicates Things With An Excellent Start—What's Next?

[Finley Rogan]

On Monday night in Philadelphia, Walker Buehler had his best start of the season. Buehler is unofficially fighting to keep his spot on the team — even with Tanner Houck's immediate future in doubt — as the team actively searches the starting pitcher trade market. To add even more drama, Buehler is facing the Dodgers this weekend, the team he spent eight seasons with before signing with Boston this winter. Oh yeah, and he's just received his World Series ring from last season.

 

Buehler has not lived up to the hype in Boston and is far from the championship-caliber pitcher who got hot last October. It feels like an ultimatum is nearing, and in classic 2025 Red Sox fashion, Buehler complicated things by pitching a gem on Monday night. He went seven innings, allowing six hits and one run. Buehler struck out four batters and walked just one along the way. 

Buehler said he was in Atlanta over the break where he spoke with biomechanical analysts, which gave him some cues in his delivery. Although it may sound odd, Buehler said everything feels more normal now. A big difference for Buehler in Philadelphia was his arm slot. Statcast has Buehler at a 42 degree slot this season, the lowest of his career. On Monday, Buehler threw from a 44 degree slot, which may have given him some added comfort in his mechanics. It is worth noting, Buehler's arm slot has already been shifting by the game, as he has clearly been working toward a more repeatable delivery for months now.

 

He threw the slider a ton on Monday. In fact, it was the highest percentage (33.7%) of sliders he threw in a game since his disastrous start in New York on June 6. The slider actually graded out very well during the start, with a Stuff+ of 111. Another standout from the start is how little Buehler relied on his fastball. Granted, it has not been a good pitch this year, but to only throw ten of them in a 89-pitch start is definitely odd, especially for Buehler, who has thrown it 24% of the time this season. Perhaps this is an attempt to begin pitching backward more often, something pitching coach Andrew Bailey has stressed with other arms in the rotation like Houck.

The issue of generating whiffs remains. Buehler can flash good command and tinker with his slot and arsenal, but none of it is generating swings-and-misses this season. Though his 43rd-percentile chase rate is below average, it is not awful. However, he has just a 10th-percentile whiff rate. The stuff is just lackluster right now and easy to make contact with. For comparison, Lucas Giolito has a 61st-percentile chase rate with an unexceptional 34th-percentile whiff rate. Both are much better than Buehler’s marks while still being around average, and we have seen how much more effective Giolito can be. Buehler doesn't need to strike out ten guys every game, but he does need to find more swing and miss in his arsenal.

Ultimately, unless Buehler and the biomechanics crew in Atlanta found a way for him to mitigate hard contact on a nightly basis, he may be susceptible to returning to his previously poor form. But, this week could also be the turning point in a rough season, and if Buehler can generate some confidence when he faces his old team this weekend, he may have a spot in the Red Sox's rotation for the remainder of the season.

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[curbsidecorgi67]

Fitts has gone 6 IP in 2/9 games started. How is Buehler the odd-man out?