Article: AL East Preview 2025: Toronto Blue Jays

[Nick John]

The Toronto Blue Jays finished last in the AL East in a wildly disappointing 2024 campaign. Can they rebound this year in baseball's most competitive division?

The Toronto Blue Jays are at an important point in time when it comes to their current core of players. With the likes of Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all hitting free agency at the end of the season, this could be the last season for the current core.

The team failed to make the playoffs last year and the two seasons that they did make it with this core they lost in the Wild Card round. However, with a division that seems to be up for the grabs there might be a chance that the Blue Jays can make a run and capture at least a Wild Card spot.

What’s Changed Since Last Year?

The biggest moves by the Blue Jays were the acquisitions of Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman and Max Scherzer. The Blue Jays knew they needed to supplement the main core of José Berríos, Bichette and Guerrero Jr. and brought in several players to assist.

Giménez and Santander look to slot right into the starting lineup as the second baseman and left fielder (or DH) respectively. Giménez was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in December for Spencer Horwitz and prospect Nick Mitchell. Santander, on the other hand, was arguably Toronto’s biggest free agent acquisition in years, signing a five-year, $92.5 million contract that also includes a 2030 team option.

The bench hasn’t changed much as Tyler Heineman, Davis Schneider and Addison Barger return to the team. The only new acquisition is outfielder Myles Straw who was acquired in a trade with Cleveland back in January.

Max Scherzer is looking to prove he still has something left in the tank at 40 years old as he will be a part of the Blue Jays rotation, joining the likes of Berríos, Bassitt and Kevin Gausman.

The bullpen has also changed slightly as the Blue Jays brought in the likes of Hoffman, Nick Sandlin and non-roster invite Richard Lovelady to try and improve on last year’s relief group.

Instead of going after depth, the Blue Jays went after players they felt could help push this core over the edge and get them back to the playoffs, especially when it comes to Hoffman and Santander, who were both All-Stars in 2024.

What Remains The Same?

Honestly, most of the lineup. Horwitz was swapped for Giménez and with Davis Schneider projected to be on the bench this season after signing Santander, most of the batting order remains the same. Daulton Varsho is projected to start the year on the Injured List due to shoulder surgery, and for the time being, center field should be manned by Nathan Lukes.

The lineup will again be led by face of the franchise Guerrero Jr. along with Bo Bichette, who looks to bounce back after an injury-plagued season. George Springer will continue to man right field while the recently-extended Alejandro Kirk will be the catcher. Ernie Clement looks poised to return as the starting third baseman as well.

The rotation remains mostly intact from how it looked at the end of last season, as four out of five starters have returned and the fifth spot is projected to belong to Scherzer. iIf the Blue Jays’ top three pitchers can throw to their potential, they might have one of the better rotations in the AL East, especially with Berríos and Gausman leading the way for them.

The bullpen has been shaken up this offseason as Génesis Cabrera left for the New York Mets. The Blue Jays still have the likes of Chad Green and Yimi García returning to help Hoffman in the back-end of the bullpen. Also returning is Brendon Little as a left-handed option, while it seems likely that Yariel Rodríguez could slide into a long-relief role this season.

Where Do The Blue Jays Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy?

I won’t lie, I’m a Red Sox fan, and while my personal bias wants me to say the Red Sox will win the division (I said that in my Red Sox preview), I think the Blue Jays could have a good shot should all their players play up to their potential. Yes, regression is likely for players like Bassitt and Springer, but should they play just average baseball, the team should be in good shape, especially with Santander to help carry the offense alongside a healthy Bichette and Guerrero Jr. Do I think the Blue Jays will win the division? Not at this moment. Do I think they could get hot and make a run for it? Absolutely.

PECOTA projects the Blue Jays to finish third in the division with roughly 85 wins on the season. Currently, they have a 21.7% chance to win the division and a 51.4% to make the playoffs all together.

FanGraphs on the other hand has Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Santander, Giménez and Kirk as having a WAR of at least 3.0 with Santander having the lowest WAR at 3.1. Guerrero Jr. leads the projected offense and the team as a whole with 4.8 WAR, while Gausman leads all pitchers with 3.1 WAR. The Blue Jays lineup as a whole only has a single player with a WAR below 1.0, with that belonging to Lukes who will most likely be shifted to the bench when Varsho returns. The rotation is likewise deep as the lowest projected WAR belongs to Bowden Francis.

With the American League East up for grabs this season, this could be the Blue Jays’ chance to make a run for it, especially knowing there’s a good possibility their core could be broken up this offseason. Should they find themselves in contention come July, there’s no reason they shouldn’t pull the trigger on a trade to help push this team into the playoffs. Of course, that all depends on if the team can play to its potential.

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