Article: Which of the Red Sox’ Big Four Is Most Likely To Be Sent Packing?

[Alex Mayes]

Trading away one of the Big Four would undoubtedly anger some Red Sox fans. However, Craig Breslow and company may need to start getting uncomfortable in order to improve the team.

With the Red Sox missing out on yet another front-line starting pitcher in Max Fried, it's time to take a deep look at the team's approach to big-name free agents. Sure, the team is preparing an offer for Corbin Burnes, but in the event that they miss out on him too, the only other way to secure the kind of pitcher you'd want starting Game 1 of a playoff series will be through the trade market. I’ve already written about why players shouldn’t be untouchable with the current needs of the team, so I thought it could be an interesting exercise to break down the Big Four of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel to see who is most or least likely to end up as the odd man out in a trade.

Most Likely To Be Traded: Marcelo Mayer
Marcelo Mayer was taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft and has been touted as the future shortstop of the major-league club. Although he was called up to triple-A Worcester toward the end of the season, he never played an inning there. At double-A Portland, he slashed .307/.370/.480 with eight home runs and 38 RBIs. He showed off his defensive skill throughout the season, and he likely has Red Sox fans salivating at the thought of his call-up in 2025. However, Mayer is about as blocked as blocked can be at the major-league level. Like it or not, Trevor Story isn’t going anywhere until his contract is over, and he will be expected to be the starting shortstop for the big league club barring some extensive shifting of the entire infield group. We know he can play second base, but the club likely wants to keep him at his preferred position until they absolutely have to move him elsewhere.

Why keep a talent like Marcelo Mayer in the minor leagues when you could build a solid trade package around him to land your top of the rotation starter? Other teams will jump at the chance to take a fourth-overall draft pick with an incredibly MLB-ready, projectable game, and Mayer offers them a personality that will play well in any media market. Mayer also carries a worrisome injury risk. That limits his trade value and makes his future less projectable than the team's other top prospects. Some teams will want more security, but some will be happy to take a shot at some extra upside. If the Red Sox are serious about trading for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, a deal centered around one of the brightest stars in all of baseball should easily get it done.

Least Like To Be Traded: Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, but the precedent is there for him to be traded. If we think back to the Chris Sale trade, the Red Sox sent the number one prospect in all of baseball, Yoan Moncada, to the Chicago White Sox. At the time, Moncada could have been considered untouchable but the Red Sox identified the pitcher they wanted to change the landscape of the team and they paid the price necessary to get it done. This doesn’t mean that the front office is willing to make such a deal again, though. Anthony projects as a future All-Star right fielder with a power bat, making him capable of becoming one of the best homegrown talents in the organization’s history. A trade involving Anthony would shock the baseball world, but if the Mariners were willing to swap a George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for Anthony, the Red Sox would at least have to consider the deal. To trade Anthony, the Red Sox are going to have to be blown away by the return and a one-for-one swap here is highly unlikely.

Could Be Had for the Right Price: Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel
I suppose the same can be said of Roman Anthony, but I find it far more likely that Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel are traded before him. Campbell shot through the minors last season and was even discussed as a late-season call-up until a lat injury ended his season Teel seems poised to take over the starting catching role from Connor Wong at some point during the 2025 season and could even start the season as the backup catcher in Boston. Both players project to be part of the big-league club within the first few months of the season and can impact the game on both offense and defense. Campbell is likely the starting second baseman for years to come and Teel should turn into a catcher with a well-rounded game. It’s unlikely both of them end up traded, but should a team be willing to pay a premium for either Campbell or Teel, then the Red Sox need to be prepared to take the money and run.

Trading from the top of the farm system hurts, but in game's current landscape, if you’re not spending money then you’re going to be trading future talent. The odds say it's unlikely that the Big Four are going to pan out at the major-league level. Good executives are better at figuring out which prospects project to be valuable contributors to their rosters and which ones can be dealt and replaced down the line. Craig Breslow will now need to prove to the fanbase that he can make those sorts of trades successfully, especially as the free-agent starting pitching market dries up before our very eyes.  

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I think I have the answer to this.

[Alex Mayes]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think I have the answer to this.

Nuh huh