Article: State Of The Red Sox Nation: Vibes Check

[Daniel Fox]

It is a question being asked in every corner of New England, at every Dunkin line and 99 table, from Windham to Somerville to Hartford and beyond:

Are the Sox back?

The recent rumors circulating baseball circles have whipped Red Sox fans into a frenzy, creating an expectation of an offensive spending spree not seen in over a decade. The buzz began in the first few weeks of the offseason, as national reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Jeff Passan declared that the Red Sox were laying the groundwork for a big offseason. The general expectation was that this meant the club was going to go after one of the available free-agent aces, but then came a Friday report that really got people going:

This past week has been an avalanche of good vibes, culminating in Sam Kennedy’s comments that the Red Sox would aim for 90-95 wins in 2025 and could blow past the luxury tax threshold. However, the more cautious among us have pointed to similar optimism from last offseason, particularly a “full throttle” comment from chairman Tom Werner that has since become a running joke. Are we just setting ourselves up for more disappointment?

At the risk of ending this offseason with egg on my face, I say no. I firmly believe the Red Sox will do something big this offseason, and you should, too. The cynical fans who roam Red Sox Twitter may scoff at the statement, but anyone who has paid attention to this team for the last five years can see that the tides are changing. 

Let’s take a step back to this time last season. The Red Sox had just come off a second consecutive 78-84 season that cost Chaim Bloom his job, and Craig Breslow had been brought in just a couple of weeks before last season. As much as we might not have wanted to admit it then, Breslow was inheriting a team that didn’t have much to work with. The lineup had Rafael Devers, but Jarren Duran and Triston Casas just had season-ending injuries, Story had been awful in 50 games after returning from elbow surgery, and Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu had just a month of major league experience under their belt. 

The pitching staff, meanwhile, was in even worse shape. Garrett Whitlock had just had another injury-plagued season. Tanner Houck was a disaster. Chris Sale felt like a $30 million ticking time bomb, and Nick Pivetta had been so bad as a starter that he was banished to the bullpen in May. The only real positives were that Brayan Bello had broken out, and veteran relievers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin stabilized the bullpen. Still, the pitching infrastructure was so broken that it would take more than one year or one pitcher to flip the script. 

Upon evaluation of his new club, Breslow made the assessment that the club was not in a position to go all-in for 2024. Instead, he added at the margins. He traded some excess arms for Tyler O’Neill. He flipped Sale for promising infielder Vaughn Grissom. He signed veteran Lucas Giolito to a short-term deal and made savvy pick-ups in Justin Slaten and Cooper Criswell. Behind the scenes, he completely overhauled the pitching development staff, led by new pitching coach Andrew Bailey. 

The 2024 Red Sox team could have seriously competed had everything gone right, and it became clear from the outset that would not be the case. Giolito blew out his elbow in March, Casas and Story missed months after freak injuries in April, and Whitlock was again lost for the season in May. The Red Sox exceeded expectations in the first half, but the lack of depth eventually caught up to them in the second half, and they finished 81-81. 

Though 2024 did not bring the Red Sox a playoff spot, it gave Breslow something almost as valuable: answers. The picture of the next great Red Sox team is so much clearer than it was at this time last season. Duran emerged as a potential building block next to Casas and Devers. Kutter Crawford and Houck proved they could stick in the rotation long-term, giving the Red Sox three homegrown starters after so many years of having zero. Slaten looks like a potential diamond-in-the-rough in the bullpen, and Abreu won a Gold Glove in right field while posting a 114 OPS+ as a rookie.

While plenty of positives emerged last season, Breslow and co. also got a better idea of which players could not be counted on. Whitlock got hurt again after four starts, seemingly eliminating him from future rotation consideration. Grissom was plagued by injury and inconsistency after winning the second base job in spring training and appeared to have been passed over on the depth chart by several high-upside minor-leaguers. Catcher Connor Wong wore down on offense and saw his already-poor defense take a step back, setting the stage for him to be replaced by prized prospect Kyle Teel (more on him later) or even a stop-gap veteran. Finally, while Rafaela wowed on defense and flashed some impressive power, his league-worst 46% chase rate indicates he may be best suited as a utility player.

As the true building blocks began to separate at the big-league level, a group of star prospects did the same in the minors. The Big Three of Teel, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony met or exceeded expectations and were promoted to Triple-A in August. They were joined a week later by utility man Kristian Campbell, a 2023 third-round pick who exploded onto the prospect scene and took home MLB.com’s Minor League Player of the Year. The quartet now sits inside MLB’s Top 25 Prospect Rankings, a feat particularly unheard of from four players so close to the majors. 

Though not as flashy, the Red Sox also saw progress from a more unheralded group of prospects. Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts became key beneficiaries of the overhauled pitching infrastructure and will begin 2025 as valuable Triple-A depth. Franklin Arias made his full-season debut and performed well enough to enter some Top 100 lists. Chase Miedroth posted a .437 on-base percentage in Triple-A,  Jhostynkon “The Password” Garcia played well enough to be added to the 40-man roster, and David Sandlin, Yoelin Cespedes, and Miguel Bleis continued to flash loud tools even if their final stat lines were unimpressive. 

All of this is to say that the Red Sox are in a completely different spot as an organization than last season. While the 2023 squad had more holes than a sponge, the checklist to make the 2025 Red Sox a contender is relatively short. First and foremost, they need an ace. The Red Sox haven’t had a true stopper since the days of prime Sale, and the absence of one became evident when the young starters wore down after the All-Star break. Secondly, they need a right-handed bat to complement Devers, Casas, and Duran. Having a (presumably) healthy Story will help, but he is currently the only legitimate right-handed threat under contract now that Tyler O’Neill is a free agent. And while not as critical, the Sox could also use another left-handed reliever in the bullpen and a catcher that can provide better defense than Wong. 

Whether through trade or free agency, the Red Sox have so many more options to address these needs than last year. While fans were clamoring for the Red Sox to trade for a controllable starter like the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert, the farm system wasn’t in a position to make such a move. Now, not only is the prospect pool able to withstand the loss of a few prized prospects but there is also a ready-made partner in Garrett Crochet and the Chicago White Sox. Coming off the worst season in MLB history and with little major or minor league talent, the White Sox will almost certainly deal with their homegrown ace. Though teams like the Orioles and the Dodgers figure to be in the bidding as well, the White Sox are reportedly interested in a package headlined by Abreu. This should be music to the Red Sox’s ears, as Anthony is ready to take over in right field, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. Throw in a few second-tier prospects and perhaps Kutter Crawford, and there is a good chance the Red Sox can get their white whale without sacrificing any key members of the next great Red Sox team. 

The free-agent market, meanwhile, is just as promising. Last year, the Red Sox took a big swing-and-a-miss on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, earning a meeting with the 25-year-old phenom but not seriously competing for his services. They also went after mid-tier options like Seth Lugo, Shota Imanaga, and postseason hero Jordan Montgomery but lost out on all three. The message was clear: The Red Sox were willing to spend big on a young star like Yamamoto but understood their limit on the 30-year-old options who profiled more as number two or threes. 

This year, however, has presented a clear change, not just because the Red Sox are displaying more aggressiveness but because the quality of free-agent starters has been raised to another level. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried enter free agency history after years of consistent, ace-level production, something that could not be said of last year’s crop. The Red Sox are reportedly in the mix for each ace and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who re-enters the free-agent market after a one-year stint with the Giants. The Red Sox never seriously considered the left-hander last season. Still, Ken Rosenthal has reported that the club has already met with the all-time strikeouts-per-nine-innings leader, the clearest indication yet of the change of philosophy from last offseason to this one. 

The free-agent market for hitters is not as strong as the one for pitchers, but once again, the Red Sox are already in the mix for all the big names. They have once again linked to slugger Teoscar Hernandez after a half-hearted effort last season, and there are one of three teams Jon Heyman connected to longtime Astros star Alex Bregman. Then there is Juan Soto, the generational superstar for whom the Red Sox are firmly in the mix. The team earned the second meeting with Soto in his get-to-you-know sessions, and though there are doubts about whether the Sox can compete with billionaire Steve Cohen, the fact that they sat down with a player who could earn a $600 million contract shows a willingness to meet the moment. 

Look, I understand the eye-rolling and cynicism that comes with reports of “interest” and “meetings.” But from my experience following baseball, there is just not this much smoke without a fire. Everything points to a shift in philosophy spurred by the optimism that the team may be only a piece or two away from seriously contending. So be it if you are still burned from the last couple of years of broken promises. That just leaves more fun for the rest of us.

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[Hugh2]

Good read, and summary of the state of the Sox.  From what we've been hearing to WHERE we've been hearing it from it certainly seems like this offseason is actually going to be different.  Yet, there's really no good argument against those who want to say "yeah, I'll believe it when I see it" 

I will say this, Sox nation is never happy.  If the Sox spend money on big name free agents, people will be upset that they spent money or they spent too much, or they spent it on the wrong guy.  If they trade for assets people will be upset that they traded away prospects and future stars yada yada yada. 

Winning cures a lot and dulls the symptoms in many others.