Article: The 2024 Season Is Almost Over... So Now What?

[Alexandra Tavaglione]

With five games left in the regular season, here's a primer on the biggest issues facing the Red Sox over the winter.

First and foremost, the Red Sox need pitching, pitching, and more pitching. They need a minimum of one starting pitcher, ideally a lefty, to step into the top of the rotation and stabilize their group of young arms. While Bryan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and presumably Lucas Giolito (unless he exercises his opt-out) are all rotation options, all are right-handed, and Boston still needs a frontline starter to be its anchor.  Unfortunately, left-handed starting pitchers who happen to be entering free agency don't grow on trees, unless you count Patrick Corbin (and you absolutely should not count Patrick Corbin). Max Fried is the only left-handed free agent who easily meets these criteria, and he won't come cheap.

While Houck and Crawford both took steps forward as starters, they faced some bumps in the road, and they have tangible things that they need to improve on for 2025. Houck started to wear down after returning from the All-Star break. Shoulder soreness forced him to miss two starts earlier this month, and his workload is being limited down the homestretch. Despite his glorious start on Monday night, he has a 1-4 record with a 4.23 ERA over his 11 second-half starts. Crawford has always been susceptible to the long ball, but this year, his 33 home runs allowed are the most in baseball, working out to 1.66 home runs per nine innings. The team could also give Garrett Whitlock another shot at starting, but he seems better suited for the bullpen. With his long history of elbow injuries, limiting his workload and giving him a chance to be an elite reliever is the best fit for both him and the team. 

The bullpen represents an even bigger challenge. It will require a full makeover, with Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Lucas Sims, and Luis Garcia all entering free agency. That's a lot of arms to replace. Although Liam Hendriks is lined up to replace Jansen to begin the season, he will be pitching for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2023. He tried to make his way back this year but discomfort after rehab outings halted his 2024 return. Martin's will definitely be one of the more impactful departures. He has been a reliable shut-down reliever for the majority of his time in a Sox uniform. 

Offensively, the biggest concerns are clearing out the outfield logjam, finding a right-handed power bat, and solidifying the second base position. The outfield is crowded now, but it's about to be overrun with talent. With Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder (club option) all still under contract through 2025, and with Roman Anthony dominating Triple- A as the consensus best prospect in baseball, something will have to give. Putting even more pressure on the situation is the fact that Duran, Abreu, and Anthony (not to mention Rafael Devers and Triston Casas) are all left-handed hitters.

The team looks likely to issue a qualifying offer to the right-handed Tyler O’Neill. Coming off a 31-homer season, he looks likely to reject it and try his luck in free agency. Should O'Neill accept the QO (or re-sign with the Red Sox), it would solve one problem — helping to balance out the lineup — but worsen another  — adding yet another outfielder to the mix. O’Neill isn’t the only right-handed power bat hitting the free agent market; Teoscar Hernandez, Alex Bregman, and Gleyber Torres are all big names who would make a lot of sense in Boston. So while other options should be explored, the team is familiar with O'Neill, and we know his swing plays well at Fenway. 

Besides, it will take more than one righty to balance out a lineup that leans so far left. Building a roster of everyday players from the existing roster gives you left-handed batters Devers, Casas, Duran, Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, David Hamilton, and Enmanuel Valdez. That's seven players, and it's not counting Anthony (who could very well break camp with the big-league club), Kyle Teel, or Marcello Mayer. Naturally, not all of these players can be on the team come March 27 because there are only so many roster spots. Still, this offseason will be devoted to solving this puzzle; deciding who fits best and what creates the best roster.

Finally, figuring the infield offers nearly as many questions. Does the team view Rafaela as an infielder long-term, or will they make space for him in the outfield, where he's a better fit? Will Vaughn Grissom turn into the player that they envisioned when they gave up Chris Sale? Where and when does Mayer fit in? What about Kristian Campbell? How does Trevor Story fit in with the next wave of young middle infielders nearing the big leagues? 

Some of these issues do not need to be fully addressed by Opening Day, but the front office needs to have a plan in place for when the time comes. In all, Craig Breslow and his shrinking front office have their work cut out for them as the regular season winds down. It will be a very busy offseason.

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[notin]

I don’t see the Sox spending what it will take to get Bregman or Torres to Boston.  Maybe more like Eugenio Suarez…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, notin said:

I don’t see the Sox spending what it will take to get Bregman or Torres to Boston.  Maybe more like Eugenio Suarez…

I don't know if Suarez fits in with the current Red Sox' offense, since his strikeout rate has dipped below 30%, after leading the league in Ks three times in the past five years.