9/19 @ Yankees

[moonslav59]

How'd that work out against a "bad minor league team"?

 

We sucked last night.

 

We're still a much better team that the Yanks.

[moonslav59]

I see you got your point of view, no problem.

 

And you, yours.

 

Can I ask you how many times you've felt this way about the Sox this year only to have those thoughts reversed over and over again?

[BillyWilliams]

We sucked last night.

 

We're still a much better team that the Yanks.

 

So far, but you were a better regular season team last year as well.

 

We'll see what the postseason brings ...........

[Slasher9]

I guess you don't listen to Radio, on Post-Game, to a man, the Yanks said we don't want them to win it here. They want this series. You probably don't live close to here, so I can understand, you not getting the Radio for the Yanks and Sox.

 

so what? do you not expect that? every team wants every series. especially against their "rival".

of course they dont want us to celebrate on their field. i bet they also didnt want to go up to boston in early august and get swept for 4 games.

[moonslav59]

So far, but you were a better regular season team last year as well.

 

We'll see what the postseason brings ...........

 

We are both better than we were last year.

 

In all honesty, do you think the Yanks have a better chance than the Sox in the playoffs?

[OH FOY]

Sox 1-15 with RISP so far in this series.

[Slasher9]

So far, but you were a better regular season team last year as well.

 

We'll see what the postseason brings ...........

 

the past month or so has been nice without the MFY fans/trolls here. a couple meaningless wins against the Sox and they come back like cockroaches. im amazed your still here. but not surprised. you keep coming back under new names over and over and over again. for about 5 years now. if you had to guess....between the 2 sites....how many names of yours have been banned over those years? i say that number is pretty close to the amount of wins the Red Sox have this year.

[BillyWilliams]

We are both better than we were last year.

 

In all honesty, do you think the Yanks have a better chance than the Sox in the playoffs?

 

As we all know, it's the team that goes on a roll that has the best chance.

[OH FOY]

We are both better than we were last year.

 

In all honesty, do you think the Yanks have a better chance than the Sox in the playoffs?

 

Yanks won 91 last year, Guardians 102, and Guardians lost. Look, I'm a Homer too, but to take the Yanks lightly, is not smart.

[Slasher9]

Yanks won 91 last year, Guardians 102, and Guardians lost. Look, I'm a Homer too, but to take the Yanks lightly, is not smart.

 

i dont think anyone would take them lightly. but the flipside is also true...some give them too much credit....

[BillyWilliams]

JD would be an absolute beast in Yankee Stadium

 

Yeah, I wanted to sign him instead of trading for Stanton.

 

We would have been on the hook for less years with about the same yearly cost.

[BillyWilliams]

This is the easiest September I can remember in forever

 

Or at least as far back as 2015 .........

[BillyWilliams]

We are both better than we were last year.

 

In all honesty, do you think the Yanks have a better chance than the Sox in the playoffs?

 

We can also look at it this way:

Yanks vs-

 

boston 7-8

houston 5-2

cleveland 5-2

oakland 3-3

 

overall vs. likely AL playoff teams 20-15

 

sox vs. -

 

Yanks 8-7

houston 3-4

cleveland 2-2

oakland 2-4

 

overall vs. likely AL playoff teams 15-17

[moonslav59]

We can also look at it this way:

Yanks vs-

 

boston 7-8

houston 5-2

cleveland 5-2

oakland 3-3

 

overall vs. likely AL playoff teams 20-15

 

sox vs. -

 

Yanks 8-7

houston 3-4

cleveland 2-2

oakland 2-4

 

overall vs. likely AL playoff teams 15-17

 

Yes, YOU can look at it this way-- any many other ways, too.

 

You will face Oakland first. You are 3-3 vs them. By your reasoning, you have a 50% chance at getting to the next round, where you face a team you are 7-8 against. It won't matter that you are 5-2 vs CLE and HOU, since you probably won't face them, and you can't face both.

 

Our first opponent will be 7-8 vs us or 4-2 vs us, as it looks at this moment.

 

I'm rooting for the A's, so that shows how much I care about a 6 or 15 game sample size.

[BillyWilliams]

Yes, YOU can look at it this way-- any many other ways, too.

 

You will face Oakland first. You are 3-3 vs them. By your reasoning, you have a 50% chance at getting to the next round, where you face a team you are 7-8 against. It won't matter that you are 5-2 vs CLE and HOU, since you probably won't face them, and you can't face both.

 

Our first opponent will be 7-8 vs us or 4-2 vs us, as it looks at this moment.

 

I'm rooting for the A's, so that shows how much I care about a 6 or 15 game sample size.

 

I do feel like we have a 50-50 shot against oakland. They are a good team that has been playing great ball as of late.

 

And of course we can't face both cleveland and houston, but I disagree that we "probably won't face them".

 

I like the Yanks chances vs the sox. And the season record shows it's pretty even .........

 

And shocker that you are rooting for oakland, you're a sox fan.

[moonslav59]

I do feel like we have a 50-50 shot against oakland. They are a good team that has been playing great ball as of late.

 

And of course we can't face both cleveland and houston, but I disagree that we "probably won't face them".

 

I like the Yanks chances vs the sox. And the season record shows it's pretty even .........

 

And shocker that you are rooting for oakland, you're a sox fan.

 

Do the math. If you agree you have a 50% chance of beating Oakland, then even if you think you have a 99% chance of winning vs BOS, you're under 50% at ever facing HOU or CLE in the ALCS.

 

99% x 50% is 49.5%. (That's if you think the Yanks are at 99% with the Sox. At best, you might be 50-50 vs Oak and 50-50 vs BOS. That equals 25% you get to face HOU or CLE.

[Slasher9]

Do the math. If you agree you have a 50% chance of beating Oakland, then even if you think you have a 99% chance of winning vs BOS, you're under 50% at ever facing HOU or CLE in the ALCS.

 

99% x 50% is 49.5%. (That's if you think the Yanks are at 99% with the Sox. At best, you might be 50-50 vs Oak and 50-50 vs BOS. That equals 25% you get to face HOU or CLE.

 

or more math:

per fangraphs:

Red Sox win WS: 15.8%

MFY win WS: 10.2%

[OH FOY]

Wonder what that FanGraph was in 69 with the Mets? Seriously do they have it? Orioles 90% Mets 10%

All I'm saying anything happens in Baseball in the Post-Season. You absolutely have to forget what happened in the season.

Edited September 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[BillyWilliams]

Do the math. If you agree you have a 50% chance of beating Oakland, then even if you think you have a 99% chance of winning vs BOS, you're under 50% at ever facing HOU or CLE in the ALCS.

 

99% x 50% is 49.5%. (That's if you think the Yanks are at 99% with the Sox. At best, you might be 50-50 vs Oak and 50-50 vs BOS. That equals 25% you get to face HOU or CLE.

 

I'm allowed to have my own opinion as you are too.

 

I like the Yanks chances to get to the ALCS.

[Carpin]

Do the math. If you agree you have a 50% chance of beating Oakland, then even if you think you have a 99% chance of winning vs BOS, you're under 50% at ever facing HOU or CLE in the ALCS.

 

99% x 50% is 49.5%. (That's if you think the Yanks are at 99% with the Sox. At best, you might be 50-50 vs Oak and 50-50 vs BOS. That equals 25% you get to face HOU or CLE.

 

That's basic probability, but if you go even further (probability of reaching the WS based on previous performance) is something like this:

 

NYY

vs OAK (3-3) 50% * vs Bos (7-8) 47% * vs Hou (5-2) 71% = 16.69%

vs TB (7-8) 47% * vs Bos (7-8) 47% * vs Hou (5-2) 71% = 15.68%Worst Matchup

vs OAK (3-3) 50% * vs Bos (7-8) 47% * vs Cle (5-2) 71% = 17.75%Best Matchup

vs TB (7-8) 47% * vs Bos (7-8) 47% * vs Cle (5-2) 71% = 16.69%

 

BOS

vs NYY (8-7) 53% * vs Hou (3-4) 43% = 22.8%

vs NYY (8-7) 53% * vs Cle (2-2) 50% = 26.5%

vs OAK (2-4) 33% * vs Hou (3-4) 43% = 14.19%Worst Matchup

vs OAK (2-4) 33% * vs Cle (2-2) 50% = 16.5%

vs TB (11-8) 58% * vs Hou (3-4) 43% = 24.94%

vs TB (11-8) 58% * vs Cle (2-2) 50% = 29%Best Matchup

 

The way I see it, based on previous records, for Boston the best matchup is expect TB and the Cle and the worst case scenario is OAK and Hou.

 

For NYY is pretty even with any combination of opponents, 2% is the major difference with the best matchup Oak vs Bos vs Cle and worst TB vs Bos vs Hou

[moonslav59]

I'm allowed to have my own opinion as you are too.

 

I like the Yanks chances to get to the ALCS.

 

The play-in game pretty much cuts the Yankess chances almost in half.

 

I get these numbers. TB is out, IMO.

 

NYY .50 x .47 x .71 = 16.7% (Best match-up- Oak>BOS>HOU

 

BOS .53 x .50= 26.5% (Best NYY>CLE)

 

Worst:

NYY: 16.7%- the same since your record vs HOU & CLE are the same.

BOS: 14.2%- (.33 vs OAK x .47 vs HOU)

[S5Dewey]

IMO all that's been proven in the past to BOS/NYY series is that the Sox have to keep the Yankees out of Yankee Stadium. They have too many big hitters who can hit 340 ft home runs. Put them in a stadium like Fenway with a big RF and they're in trouble.

 

Yes, I know they put up several runs after the 340's but the 340's were the ones that set the tone for the game. Hell, I'm not even upset with David Price. He pitched well. He just gave up too many fly ball homers that would be outs in a real stadium.

[Maxbialystock]

If there is one thing I ain't buying, it's any math or probability on who wins what series in the postseason. Other than to say, of course, that the division winners have an advantage because they don't have to play the one game playoff. Right now in the AL I think all five teams could be tough: Sox, Astros, Guardians, Yankees, and A's. Can the Rays still sneak in there? If so, they could be tough.

 

Also, despite the Sox terrific record, I think the team to beat in the AL is again the Astros.

[moonslav59]

The other downfall of the play-in game, is that the winning team probably used their best or second best pitcher and can only pitch them once in the next 5 game series, unless you seriously mess with their days off.

 

If the Yanks use Severino or Happ in the play-in game, I like our odds even better.

[BillyWilliams]

The other downfall of the play-in game, is that the winning team probably used their best or second best pitcher and can only pitch them once in the next 5 game series, unless you seriously mess with their days off.

 

If the Yanks use Severino or Happ in the play-in game, I like our odds even better.

 

It is a tricky situation for the Yanks.

 

As they brought up in last night's beatdown, ideally we would start Tanaka in the WC game and have Sevy and Happ ready to face the sox.

 

While that plan does make some sense to me and Tanaka has been pretty good in the 2nd half as well as a solid play off performer, I always worry about his tendency to let up the HR, especially if that game is in Yankee Stadium.

[S5Dewey]

The last series of the regular season will be interesting since the Sox will probably have clinched both the ALE Championship and the right to home field advantage by then and they Y's will be in the WC race for HFA.

Does Cora rest his people and get them ready for the playoffs, thereby putting his 2's on the field, or does he go all out to beat the Yankees and send them to the west coast for their WC game?

 

(I like Door #2. They've got 5 days to rest!)

[moonslav59]

It is a tricky situation for the Yanks.

 

As they brought up in last night's beatdown, ideally we would start Tanaka in the WC game and have Sevy and Happ ready to face the sox.

 

While that plan does make some sense to me and Tanaka has been pretty good in the 2nd half as well as a solid play off performer, I always worry about his tendency to let up the HR, especially if that game is in Yankee Stadium.

 

It might depend on needing to win in the last few games...either for home field or possibly to even make it, if TB goes undefeated and you guys struggle.

 

If you go by your normal scheduled days to end the season, here's what it might look like...

 

9/20 Tanaka BOS

9/21 Sabathia BAL

9/22 LynnBAL

9/23 HappBAL

9/24 Severino @TBR

9/25 Tanaka @TBR

9/26 CC @TBR

9/27 Lynn@TBR

9/28 Happ @BOS

9/29 Severino @BOS

9/30 Tanaka @BOS

 

Save Tanaka for the play-in game pitch Tanaka 9/30 and use CC?

 

Or, don't pitch Severino or Tanaka the last two games, so one pitches the play-in game and one can pitch 2 games of the 5 game series. (That's what I think they should do.)

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

It might depend on needing to win in the last few games...either for home field or possibly to even make it, if TB goes undefeated and you guys struggle.

 

If you go by your normal scheduled days to end the season, here's what it might look like...

 

9/20 Tanaka BOS

9/21 Sabathia BAL

9/22 LynnBAL

9/23 HappBAL

9/24 Severino @TBR

9/25 Tanaka @TBR

9/26 CC @TBR

9/27 Lynn@TBR

9/28 Happ @BOS

9/29 Severino @BOS

9/30 Tanaka @BOS

 

Save Tanaka for the play-in game pitch Tanaka 9/30 and use CC?

 

Or, don't pitch Severino or Tanaka the last two games, so one pitches the play-in game and one can pitch 2 games of the 5 game series. (That's what I think they should do.)

 

 

 

 

Nice.

[BillyWilliams]

It might depend on needing to win in the last few games...either for home field or possibly to even make it, if TB goes undefeated and you guys struggle.

 

If you go by your normal scheduled days to end the season, here's what it might look like...

 

9/20 Tanaka BOS

9/21 Sabathia BAL

9/22 LynnBAL

9/23 HappBAL

9/24 Severino @TBR

9/25 Tanaka @TBR

9/26 CC @TBR

9/27 Lynn@TBR

9/28 Happ @BOS

9/29 Severino @BOS

9/30 Tanaka @BOS

 

Save Tanaka for the play-in game pitch Tanaka 9/30 and use CC?

 

Or, don't pitch Severino or Tanaka the last two games, so one pitches the play-in game and one can pitch 2 games of the 5 game series. (That's what I think they should do.)

 

 

 

 

I think ideally the Yanks would like to make sure Happ pitches 2x's vs the sox considering how well he has done against them.

[Carpin]

It might depend on needing to win in the last few games...either for home field or possibly to even make it, if TB goes undefeated and you guys struggle.

 

If you go by your normal scheduled days to end the season, here's what it might look like...

 

9/20 Tanaka BOS

9/21 Sabathia BAL

9/22 LynnBAL

9/23 HappBAL

9/24 Severino @TBR

9/25 Tanaka @TBR

9/26 CC @TBR

9/27 Lynn@TBR

9/28 Happ @BOS

9/29 Severino @BOS

9/30 Tanaka @BOS

 

Save Tanaka for the play-in game pitch Tanaka 9/30 and use CC?

 

Or, don't pitch Severino or Tanaka the last two games, so one pitches the play-in game and one can pitch 2 games of the 5 game series. (That's what I think they should do.)

 

 

 

 

very nice, I like option number two, rest Severino and Tanaka to have them ready for WC game and the 1st game against the Sox