Yankees 2017-2018 Hot Stove

[jacksonianmarch]

Very conflicted putting this post up right now. Sad my team won't be in the WS. Sad they couldn't muster anything against a career journeyman like Morton. Ecstatic that the rebuild is over and this team is locked and loaded for next season. In terms of where they stand...

 

In terms of contracts..

The Yankees have $112.7 mil on the books in contracts or dead money (this includes McCann).

Ellsbury- $21.8 mil cap hit

McCann $5.5 mil cap hit

Tanaka- (if he doesn't opt out)- $22.14 mil cap hit

Brett Gardner- $13 mil cap hit

Chase Headley- $13 mil cap hit

Starlin Castro- $8.57 mil cap hit

Aroldis Chapman- $17.2 mil cap hit

David Robertson- $11.5 mil cap hit

 

The predicted arbitration numbers are

•Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM

•Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM

•Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM

•Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM

•Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM

•Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM

•Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM

•Chasen Shreve (2.155) – $900K

 

This $29.4 mil added to the $112.7 mil gets us to $142.1mil. The cap we must stay under is $197 mil and assuming we save $5 mil for in season callups, league minimum salaries or late season acquisitions, we have $50 mil to play with. This entails Tanaka NOT opting out. As it stands in this instance, the lineup without ANY additions is as follows

 

C- Sanchez

1B- Bird

2B- Castro

SS- Gregorius

3B- Headley/Andujar

LF- Gardner

CF- Hicks/Ellsbury

RF- Judge

DH- Ellsbury/Headley/C. Frazier/Ellsbury

 

SP1- Severino

SP2- Gray

SP3- Tanaka

SP4- Montgomery

SP5- Adams

 

CL- Chapman

SU-Robertson

SU-Kahnle

SU-Betances

MR-Green

MR-Warren

MR-Shreve

 

Assuming no trades (which is FAR from a reasonable assumption), the one area of clear need is DH. We have guys who could occupy this, but the DH market this year is saturated with no D hitters. The one I like the most for us is Carlos Santana. The guy sees a ton of pitches, walks a ton, hits for more power left handed, but puts up a better average right handed to negate the L/R split. He also plays a reasonable 1b which could give Bird the time at DH he may need to stay healthy long term. I don't expect Santana to be cheap, but he shouldn't break the bank like JD Martinez as he is not a transcendent hitter, but is a really good one. I think a reasonable contract for him is 3 years $42 mil or $14 mil AAV.

 

That leaves us with about $36 mil to play with and elongates our lineup to

Gardner

Judge

Gregorius

Sanchez

Bird

Santana

Castro

Hicks

Headley/Andujar

 

I don't see a clear need in the pen and if Tanaka doesn't opt out, I think our rotation as is could be good enough to win a ton of ballgames and our pen is good enough to win some bad starts while we break in the rookie Adams (who has ace upside btw). The offense improves with more power and patience out of the DH spot and Bird gets the opportunity to split time between 1b and DH to stay fresh. We'd have a ready made replacement for most every position except catcher with a top prospect. Andujar for the CIF. Torres up the middle (as well as Wade and Estrada). Frazier for the OF. Acevedo and Sheffield for the rotation. Holder and a bunch of other guys for the pen. The team above is good enough to get to the playoffs, but I highly doubt we just pocket $36 mil and twiddle our thumbs with it. I also think there is next to no chance we don't improve our team via trade. We can eat money and still stay under the cap and we have the prospects to make any deal happen. So, watch for these five things in NY

 

1. The GM and the manager. I honestly don't know how Stein could let Cash walk unless he is done. You give him a blank check and move on. Girardi should have had his fate sealed in game 2 of the ALDS, but his team had his back and won the series anyway. That shows a team responding for their manager, and you cannot beat that. Joe gets retained if he wants to stay

 

2. A Starlin Castro trade- for those of you who love Theo, think about this. We got Starlin for Adam Warren. We got Chapman for literally nothing. We then re-obtained Warren in the Chapman deal. Then we re-signed Chapman without having to give up a draft pick. In the process, we got Billy McKinney, who has regained his fringe top 100 prospect status and obtained Gleyber Torres, who in most publications is either the top or one of the top 3 prospects in all of baseball. We spent money to get Chap and we got Castro and the Cubs have a title in a season we weren't winning anything, and otherwise literally no bodies still on their roster to show for it. Theo got his title, but Cash ate his lunch. I think this is the year we deal Castro. We have many ready made replacements on this roster. I think Cash got Castro as a buy low candidate and Castro rewarded us with a solid .300 BA, 16HR performance. It is also hard to believe that Castro is only 27 years old. His downsides from this year were a really high BABIP, a career high K% and continued sub par defense. I think Cash will take advantage of his high value right now and move him. I have no clue what he does. He could be a 3 way trade candidate to get a starter. He could be dealt for prospects. I don't know. But with Wade and Torres both ready for the show and Castro looking like a crash candidate for 2018, I would definitely be looking out for Cash to move him.

 

3. Tanaka's opt out- Tanaka rebuilt his value in dominating the Astros and the Guardians in crucial games. He had been an ace up to this year and outside of a 6 week stretch, he was still an ace. He has 3 years and $66 mil on his contract left. He is a splitter reliant pitcher now with the ability but not the consistency to run the ball up there into the mid 90s. I like him on his current contract. If Tanaka opts out, we say thank you for your service and sign Darvish.

 

4. The small deals- Cashman is a master of dealing guys with promise who might not make our 40 man and hence be lost to the Rule V and turning them into guys who turn into prospects later. (Look at the deals for Pazos and Gamel for one). I anticipate that a few of our 40 man necessary big arms in the minors may need to be dealt or else we will see them go in the Rule V and stay gone.

 

5. The big trade- this could be linked with the Castro deal, it might not be. We have cap room, prospects to spare, and no clear need beyond something that is readily available on this market (DH based offense). We also have high end relievers to deal as well, which are always hot commodities for teams nearing contention. We also don't know, beyond Stanton that is, which big players are actually on the market and with the way Cash deals, we likely won't know until the deal is consummated. I anticipate a significant trade occurring during the hot stove. Who they get, nobody knows, but we will get someone.

 

As it stands, when you have a team that has money to spend, most of their holes filled and prospects galore, it usually means you are in a really good position going forward. The goal is to stay under the cap and remain competitive, and I definitely see us doing that. It is on Cash not to screw it up

Edited October 22, 2017 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

Good recap, but couldn't this go on one of the other Yankee threads?

[jacksonianmarch]

This is the hot stove thread. The ALCS thread should be done as it’s over now

[moonslav59]

This is the hot stove thread. The ALCS thread should be done as it’s over now

 

I was thinking the "New York Yankee" thread started by examiner.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wrong spot and cmon now. If anyone is gonna start a Yankees hot stove thread, it’s me

[moonslav59]

Wrong spot and cmon now. If anyone is gonna start a Yankees hot stove thread, it’s me

 

Then maybe they should merge examiner's thread into yours.

 

One Yankee thread about 2018 is enough on a Sox blog.

[Spudboy]

Maybe I will make a Yankee thread.

 

I'm a Sox fan so what harm would it do?

 

Lighten up. This is Talksox where the Yankees are part of the conversation.

[moonslav59]

Maybe I will make a Yankee thread.

 

I'm a Sox fan so what harm would it do?

 

Lighten up. This is Talksox where the Yankees are part of the conversation.

 

I have no issues with Yankee fans on this site. I was just saying I think the two threads are too similar and should be combined.

[Bellhorn04]

The thread started by examiner was mainly for the purpose of moaning and groaning about the Sox.

[Jasonbay44]

It was a quality in depth post about the Yankees, in the Yankees section of the site. There is literally nothing in this post to complain about. Come on now.

[jacksonianmarch]

And I plan to keep posting in it...

 

The Yankee 40 man struggle is real. Here are the guys slated to be on our 40 man and the guys we would need to add or risk losing to Rule V eligibility

 

40 man

1. Betances

2. Chapman

3. Gray

4. Kahnle

5. Green

6. Montgomery

7. Robertson

8. Severino

9. Tanaka

10. Warren

11. Cessa

12. Gallegos

13. German

14. Heller

15. Herrera

16. Holder

17. Mitchell

18. Shreve

19. C. Smith

20. Higashioka

21. Romine

22. Sanchez

23. Andujar

24. Austin

25. Castro

26. Cooper

27. Gregorius

28. Headley

29. Torreyes

30. Wade

31. Ellsbury

32. Frazier

33. Gardner

34. Hicks

35. Judge

 

That leaves 5 slots without trades or DFA's.

 

The guys we would have to protect or risk losing in the Rule V are as follows (and I am only listing guys who are possibilities to be added)

 

Jake Cave OF

Billy McKinney OF

Stephen Tarpley LHP

Mike Ford 1B

Domingo Acevedo RHP

Thairo Estrada SS

JP Feyereisen RHP

Nestor Cortes LHP

Albert Abreu RHP

Cale Coshow RHP

Gosuke Katoh 2B

Jonathan Loaisiga RHP

 

That's 12 guys with legitimate big league futures who would need to be protected. The following guys are absolute no brainers

Acevedo

Estrada

Abreu

Loaisiga

 

For that last spot, assuming no moves, I would choose Jake Cave. The guy can play CF and had a lights out season. My assumption, though, is that we make some moves prior to the deadline as I think the Yankees will try to keep Tarpley and McKinney as well.

 

I anticipate that one spot will be opened with either a deal or DFA of Cooper or Austin. We have enough 1b redundancy with Bird and Andujar, we don't need a 3rd and 4th backup, especially when I think the Yankees add a DH capable of playing 1b

 

I also expect the Yankees to deal Bryan Mitchell as he is out of options and doesn't really have a prayer to crack our bullpen unless we deal a few guys

 

That would allow us to keep Tarpley and McKinney. We would still likely lose Coshow, but he is a 100mph arm without much to back it up (we have a lot of those). We'd probably also lose Feyereisen who is also a 100mph arm who has trouble with command. I doubt we lose Katoh, although it is possible. He's a solid talent but needs at least another 2 years of seasoning. Ford has no future here and is a MiLB FA come November if we don't add him to the 40 man, which I would say would be a stretch.

[moonslav59]

And I plan to keep posting in it...

 

The Yankee 40 man struggle is real. Here are the guys slated to be on our 40 man and the guys we would need to add or risk losing to Rule V eligibility

 

40 man

1. Betances

2. Chapman

3. Gray

4. Kahnle

5. Green

6. Montgomery

7. Robertson

8. Severino

9. Tanaka

10. Warren

11. Cessa

12. Gallegos

13. German

14. Heller

15. Herrera

16. Holder

17. Mitchell

18. Shreve

19. C. Smith

20. Higashioka

21. Romine

22. Sanchez

23. Andujar

24. Austin

25. Castro

26. Cooper

27. Gregorius

28. Headley

29. Torreyes

30. Wade

31. Ellsbury

32. Frazier

33. Gardner

34. Hicks

35. Judge

 

That leaves 5 slots without trades or DFA's.

 

The guys we would have to protect or risk losing in the Rule V are as follows (and I am only listing guys who are possibilities to be added)

 

Jake Cave OF

Billy McKinney OF

Stephen Tarpley LHP

Mike Ford 1B

Domingo Acevedo RHP

Thairo Estrada SS

JP Feyereisen RHP

Nestor Cortes LHP

Albert Abreu RHP

Cale Coshow RHP

Gosuke Katoh 2B

Jonathan Loaisiga RHP

 

That's 12 guys with legitimate big league futures who would need to be protected. The following guys are absolute no brainers

Acevedo

Estrada

Abreu

Loaisiga

 

For that last spot, assuming no moves, I would choose Jake Cave. The guy can play CF and had a lights out season. My assumption, though, is that we make some moves prior to the deadline as I think the Yankees will try to keep Tarpley and McKinney as well.

 

I anticipate that one spot will be opened with either a deal or DFA of Cooper or Austin. We have enough 1b redundancy with Bird and Andujar, we don't need a 3rd and 4th backup, especially when I think the Yankees add a DH capable of playing 1b

 

I also expect the Yankees to deal Bryan Mitchell as he is out of options and doesn't really have a prayer to crack our bullpen unless we deal a few guys

 

That would allow us to keep Tarpley and McKinney. We would still likely lose Coshow, but he is a 100mph arm without much to back it up (we have a lot of those). We'd probably also lose Feyereisen who is also a 100mph arm who has trouble with command. I doubt we lose Katoh, although it is possible. He's a solid talent but needs at least another 2 years of seasoning. Ford has no future here and is a MiLB FA come November if we don't add him to the 40 man, which I would say would be a stretch.

 

You guys need a DH and have plenty of money to spend.

 

We'll give you HRam and Rusnet Castillo for 3-4 of these guys.

 

(LOL)

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I will pass, lol.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised at all if we see some deals either. I expect German, Gallegos or Heller to be moved for a couple lower level prospects. Cashman is the master of these types of moves

[jacksonianmarch]

I also forgot to mention that NYY will likely be considered one of the projected landing spots for Otani who could fill the DH void and the 5th SP void if he were to sign

[Meh]

Trade Ellsbury and cash to the M's.

 

See if the Cardinals or someone else will overpay for Dellin.

 

Trade Castro.

 

Sign Ohtani.

 

Let Cashman work his trade magic.

 

I'd see if CC wants to come back for 1 year 8 million and Fraizer for 1 year 3.5 million.

 

I'd also dangle Warren and Gardner, but for a high price tag.

[Spudboy]

Why would the M's want Ellsbury? He is from Washington, I believe. But other than that how could they benefit from getting the stiff?

 

What am I missing?

[jacksonianmarch]

Ells wasn’t as big of a stiff as you think. He did provide 1.8 WAR in 112 games with a .750 OPS and 20+ steals. He does have some value as a CFer. Thing is, that value may be only $7 mil or so per season. We are paying him $68 mil guaranteed for the next 3 years. If we want to dump him, we’d have to eat 2/3 of the deal plus the $5 mil buyout. I’d say something along the lines of $47 mil

[jacksonianmarch]

Meh, I’d have to be offered a Betances package that would be akin to prime Betances. No dealing him for pennies on the dollar. I lean towards keeping him and maybe moving him in season if he really gets rolling

[Meh]

Meh, I’d have to be offered a Betances package that would be akin to prime Betances. No dealing him for pennies on the dollar. I lean towards keeping him and maybe moving him in season if he really gets rolling

 

I agree. I'd target the Nationals and Juan Soto and Wil Crowe.

 

I think Castro to the Angels makes a lot of sense too, but their farm is still wrecked and I doubt they'd trade from their major league roster. I'd love to sping some guys off, say... Fraizer, Soto, Montgomery, Adams, and the guy we get for Castro for Madison Bumgardner.

 

2017 roster something along the lines of...

 

C: Sanchez

1B: Bird

2B: Wade/with Torres coming up in May.

SS: Didi

3B: Headley

OF: Gardner, Hicks, Judge

DH: Ohtani

Bench: Fraizer, McKinney, Romine, Torreyes

 

Rotation: Bumgarner, Tanaka, Severino, Ohtani, CC

 

Chapman, Robertson, Kahlne, Green, Holder/Heller, Smith/Shreve, and German.

[jacksonianmarch]

You forgot about Sonny Gray in the rotation Meh.

 

But you sure are thinking. Bumgarner would be a huge get, but as of now, he is currently off limits per the Giants. His shoulder injury scared me off a bit, but he did return to throw similar velocity and lefties in Yankee stadium typically do pretty well as the pull side is a deep part of the park. His contract is akin to Sale's with an option year in 2018 and 2019. He's also in his prime as he just turned 28. We have the prospects to do it, but you might be slightly overpaying in your deal.

 

Montgomery is a guy I don't want to deal if I can help it. His K and BB totals are eerily similar to Bumgarner's first full year as is the velocity and repertoire. I honestly do not want to see him dealt as I think 2018 could be a very big year for him. If we were to deal him, he'd be the centerpiece of the deal. He is going to finish in the top 4 ROY voting in the AL, and he'd be a top 2 candidate most years, but with Benintendi in Boston and Judge behind JMont, this isn't most years. I have a sneaking suspicion that Montgomery ends up being a top tier starter once he cleans up his command a bit more.

 

Any deal for Bumgarner would probably be hard to keep Torres out of. But I think we could do it. I'd probably deal off guys we aren't planning on using in 2018 for him. It would definitely hurt the depth, but it's a possibility

[Carpin]

You guys need a DH and have plenty of money to spend.

 

We'll give you HRam and Rusnet Castillo for 3-4 of these guys.

 

(LOL)

 

LOL

 

I think Cashman will go hard after Santana.

 

By the way, good look trying to unload those guys (the same luck we need to trade Ellsbury)

[Meh]

You forgot about Sonny Gray in the rotation Meh.

 

But you sure are thinking. Bumgarner would be a huge get, but as of now, he is currently off limits per the Giants. His shoulder injury scared me off a bit, but he did return to throw similar velocity and lefties in Yankee stadium typically do pretty well as the pull side is a deep part of the park. His contract is akin to Sale's with an option year in 2018 and 2019. He's also in his prime as he just turned 28. We have the prospects to do it, but you might be slightly overpaying in your deal.

 

I overpay to get him. The only reason they would hold onto him is that he's a legacy, but I think we could give them a reason to trade him. I did forget about Gray, haha my bad. This team could be very deep. I hope Cashman has his scouts look for the next Hicks, Castro, etc. A good buy low guy who could rebound.

[Carpin]

Trade Ellsbury and cash to the M's.

 

See if the Cardinals or someone else will overpay for Dellin.

 

Trade Castro.

 

Sign Ohtani.

 

Let Cashman work his trade magic.

 

I'd see if CC wants to come back for 1 year 8 million and Fraizer for 1 year 3.5 million.

 

I'd also dangle Warren and Gardner, but for a high price tag.

 

 

Interesting

 

1. The only way I see for dumping Ellsbury is if we make him part of a bigger deal, still we'll need to eat a huge part of his salary

 

2. I think the Cubbies will be interested in Betances, in a cubs forum somebody suggested Betances for Schwarber, both are coming from down seasons, not sure who has the more value right now.

 

3. There won't be a short of suitors for Castro, a clear case of "Sell HIGH" candidate

 

4. Otani, if he comes to America we have o good chance but I feel he ends up with LAD

 

5. I'm sure Stealth Cashman will work his magic especially to shrink the 40 man pool

 

6. For CC I was thinking more like 1 at 10 plus incentives + an option which becomes guaranteed if he reaches some milestones (like IP)

 

7. No problem dealing Warren, but we still need Gardner as a safety net (I'm not completely sold in Hicks/Frazier) and as a mentor for some of the young guys, he's a positive presence in the clubhouse

[jacksonianmarch]

A Schwarber for Betances deal gets done by Cash 100 times out of 100. It would also solve our DH issue without having to give out big money.

 

Ellsbury actually had a pretty good season and someone will want him to man CF. They will likely want him for a max of $7 mil per season. We'd have to eat some serious money to do it, but it can be done. I wouldn't eat any more than that

 

Castro will have a lot of suitors. His AAV is only $8 mil and he is still controlled cheaply by options for 2018 and 2019 with a more expensive option in 2020.

 

I think the Dodgers are still in their penalty phase

 

We will shrink the 40 man pool. I expect more shrewd moves

 

No more CC. If Tanaka opts out, we get Darvish. I can roll with a top 5 of Severino, Darvish, Gray, Montgomery and Adams. If we nab Otani too, sub him in for the #5.

 

If we deal Betances, we keep Warren.

[Carpin]

For some reason cubs fans are down on Schwarber, I don't understand why, he had a down year, but the guy is a monster when he's on, still very young to fix whatever is wrong with him. Don't know if Theo and the rest of the FO are down on him too, if they are down on him, Cashman would be crazy not to call and ask what it would take to get him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Schwarber doesn’t have a position in Chicago. He’s not really a catcher. He doesn’t have space at 1b. He’s an awful OFer. Schwarber should be in the AL and everyone knows it

[Spudboy]

Is he really bad in LF?

 

That bat plays anywhere.

[jacksonianmarch]

He came up as a catcher. He really should be a 1b. His UZR/150 wasn't as bad as I thought, but he clearly isn't going to be a long term OFer

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of buzz that Girardi won't be back.

 

The Yanks have an interesting way of doing business - the contracts of both Girardi and Cashman expire October 31 and there's no official word yet on either of them. Cashman will be back obviously. He has been one of the best in the business recently.

 

What's a little odd is that if in fact the Yanks don't plan on bringing Girardi back they're watching the pool of managerial candidates shrink. Maybe they already have their guy.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees aren’t the old George Yankees where you knew what he was doing before he did it. These Yankees are a lot more stealth. The fact that they haven’t publicly interviewed anyone tells me one of two things. Either they know Joe will be back, or they already know who his replacement will be. I think Joe should be back. After game 2 in Cleveland, I wasn’t tooting the same horn. But his team came to his rescue and that shows that they have his back, which is huge.