The final al east standings

[BigPapi]

When the season ends, what do you guys predict will be the final standings in the al east? (Include projected records if you like).

[Palodios]

Red Sox 95-67

Rays 93-69

Orioles 88- 74

Jays -- 83 - 79

Yankees 76-86

 

I expect the Rays to burn out during their brutal September, but then finish strong. The Red Sox keep churning out heroes. The Jays fight for a winning season, and the Yankees take a dive for a better draft pick.

[mvp 78]

Rays

Sox

Orioles

Yankees

Jays

[sk7326]

Sox, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Jays ... has been best division in baseball. Even the Red Sox doomsday forecasts coming into the year were a bit silly - I am surprised that the division winner will get to 95 wins probably, just thought last place would be like 80-82.

[SoxSport]

Sox, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Jays ... has been best division in baseball. Even the Red Sox doomsday forecasts coming into the year were a bit silly - I am surprised that the division winner will get to 95 wins probably, just thought last place would be like 80-82.

 

Thats' the way it is developing. But there are 40+ games left, and anything can still happen. And probably will.

[sk7326]

Thats' the way it is developing. But there are 40+ games left, and anything can still happen. And probably will.

 

Indeed - if the Red Sox have that horrendous stretch of injuries which derailed 2011 and 2012 (along with that 22-2 stretch Tampa had in 2011), things could change. But this team has been pretty lucky healthwise - enough starting depth to withstand Buchholz' loss, and injuries to closers in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal relative to injuries in other places. The position players have been far more available than they have been in the recent past. Sometimes it just takes some health.

[BigPapi]

Rays

Sox

Orioles

Yankees

Jays

 

Would the sox be a wild card team and who would they play in the wildcard game if so?

[mvp 78]

Would the sox be a wild card team and who would they play in the wildcard game if so?

 

All wild card teams play in the elimination/play-in game. So, yes.

[Orange Juiced]

The biggest reason I am optimistic about this team the rest of the way is starting pitching. Adding Peavy was, IMO, a really important move. Now every night they can throw out a quality arm. It means they're not likely to have any long losing streaks (they might lose a few in a row, but it would be very surprising for a rotation of five good pitchers to all be bad for a long period of time). They should be competitive most every night. And if Buchholz comes back healthy in September (who knows...), that'll just make their rotation even better.

 

Remember in the last month of 2011, they were throwing out Tim Wakefield (5.12 era), Andrew Miller (5.54 era), Kyle Weiland (7.66 era), and John Lackey (6.41)? And then even their two best starters (Beckett and Lester) were bad that month:

 

Beckett: 4 g, 5.48 era

Lester: 6 g, 5.40 era

 

I mean, where the Sox are at right now compared to that is night and day. I think if they lose the division, Tampa (or Baltimore, I guess) is going to have to come and take it. I don't think the Sox are going to give it away.

[Orange Juiced]

All wild card teams play in the elimination/play-in game. So, yes.

 

To be fair, all you did was list Boston as the 2nd place team in the AL East. That doesn't guarantee them a WC berth. Maybe two teams from the NL West or a team from the Central gets those two WC spots. Hence Big Papi's question.

[SoxFanForsyth]

To be fair, all you did was list Boston as the 2nd place team in the AL East. That doesn't guarantee them a WC berth. Maybe two teams from the NL West or a team from the Central gets those two WC spots. Hence Big Papi's question.

 

He didn't understand the question. He thought it read "Will they be the WC and if so would they play in the WC play in game?" He didn't realize BigPapi asked "If so, WHO would they play in the WC game"

[Orange Juiced]

He didn't understand the question. He thought it read "Will they be the WC and if so would they play in the WC play in game?" He didn't realize BigPapi asked "If so, WHO would they play in the WC game"

 

I agree. I was trying to help clear up the confusion. Perhaps I added to it.

[BigPapi]

All wild card teams play in the elimination/play-in game. So, yes.

 

 

Aaha sorry i worded that weird. Who do you think they will play in that wild card game if you think they will make the playoffs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Red Sox: 96-66

Rays: 92-70

Orioles: 87-75

Yankees:82-80

Jays: 78-84

[mvp 78]

He didn't understand the question. He thought it read "Will they be the WC and if so would they play in the WC play in game?" He didn't realize BigPapi asked "If so, WHO would they play in the WC game"

 

This. Too many Excel spreadsheets today.

 

BigPapi, they will play the O's. I think the Rangers have a tough go of it at the end of the season without Cruz.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This. Too many Excel spreadsheets today.

 

BigPapi, they will play the O's. I think the Rangers have a tough go of it at the end of the season without Cruz.

 

If this is the case, I really like the Sox chances against the Orioles in a 1 game playoff at Fenway, considering we can either throw Peavy or Buchholz and they match up extremely well against any Orioles pitcher. The Orioles have no good starting pitchers.

 

But regardless, I still think the Sox win the East.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I know it's still crazy early, but....

 

the Yankees Elimination # (for the AL East) is 36. Any combo of 36 Red Sox wins or Yankees losses knocks them out of the AL East running.

 

Obviously they're pretty much out as is (11.5 back), but it's just nice to throw that E# next to their name.

[mvp 78]

If this is the case, I really like the Sox chances against the Orioles in a 1 game playoff at Fenway, considering we can either throw Peavy or Buchholz and they match up extremely well against any Orioles pitcher. The Orioles have no good starting pitchers.

 

But regardless, I still think the Sox win the East.

Yeah, the Orioles would have a tough go of it in the playoffs due to their mediocre starters. Texas would be a nightmare in an elimination game.

[Orange Juiced]

I know it's still crazy early, but....

 

the Yankees Elimination # (for the AL East) is 36. Any combo of 36 Red Sox wins or Yankees losses knocks them out of the AL East running.

 

Obviously they're pretty much out as is (11.5 back), but it's just nice to throw that E# next to their name.

 

It is pretty sweet to see them that far back. But it's not just how far back they are, it's how many teams they have to leapfrog.

 

To win the AL East, they have to pass 3 teams: Boston (11.5 games ahead of NY), Tampa (9 games ahead of NY), and Baltimore (5.5 games ahead of NY).

 

To get a Wild Card spot, they have to pass 3 teams: Baltimore (5.5 games ahead of NY), Cleveland (4 games ahead of NY), and Kansas City (2 games ahead of NY).

 

That's a lot of teams to jump, and they're not exactly *that* close to getting there. They have a lot of work to do, and there's not a ton of time left in the season to do it.

 

Now watch ARod go nuts over the last 49 games to lift them to the playoffs....

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah, the Orioles would have a tough go of it in the playoffs due to their mediocre starters. Texas would be a nightmare in an elimination game.

 

So would Tampa, if it came to it. Just think of the teams with excellent #1 starters. Of course, it's no guarantee that teams could successfully line up their #1 starter for that one game playoff. They might need to burn them at some point in the last few days just to get into the playoffs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It is pretty sweet to see them that far back. But it's not just how far back they are, it's how many teams they have to leapfrog.

 

To win the AL East, they have to pass 3 teams: Boston (11.5 games ahead of NY), Tampa (9 games ahead of NY), and Baltimore (5.5 games ahead of NY).

 

To get a Wild Card spot, they have to pass 3 teams: Baltimore (5.5 games ahead of NY), Cleveland (4 games ahead of NY), and Kansas City (2 games ahead of NY).

 

That's a lot of teams to jump, and they're not exactly *that* close to getting there. They have a lot of work to do, and there's not a ton of time left in the season to do it.

 

Now watch ARod go nuts over the last 49 games to lift them to the playoffs....

 

They actually have to pass 4 teams to get into the WC. BAL, CLE, KC, and Oak/Tex. Passing everyone but Oak/Tex (who are tied right now in the AL West) will only put them into 3rd place in the WC. And they are 7 back on Texas and Oakland.

[Orange Juiced]

They actually have to pass 4 teams to get into the WC. BAL, CLE, KC, and Oak/Tex. Passing everyone but Oak/Tex (who are tied right now in the AL West) will only put them into 3rd place in the WC. And they are 7 back on Texas and Oakland.

 

Yes, you are correct. My bad. But that's good - makes it even harder on them.

[sk7326]

Current standings of consequence:

 

Red Sox 70-46

Tigers 67-45

Athletics 64-49

Rays 66-47 (WC1, 2.5 GB in division)

Rangers 65-50 (WC2, 0 GB in division)

Orioles 63-51 (1.5 GB of WC2)

Guardians 62-52 (2.5 GB of WC2, 6 GB in division)

Royals 58-53 (5 GB of WC2)

Yankees 57-56 (7 GB of WC2)

 

As we have seen "anything" is possible - if a team rips off a 22-2 stretch, this is all a moot point. But playing the percentages - Royals and Yankees might just have too much work to do between games behind and "teams to hop over". It's whether Baltimore or Cleveland can catch Texas. (I think the TB/Boston loser is pretty probable for a WC spot no matter what)

[SoxSport]

Yeah, it's too early. Anything is possible. they had an even better record Aug 1st two years ago, and you know what happened then. The one thing that can kill them is hubris--too much hubris.

[sk7326]

Yeah, it's too early. Anything is possible. they had an even better record Aug 1st two years ago, and you know what happened then. The one thing that can kill them is hubris--too much hubris.

 

If there is a combination of pitching slump and serious injury problems - and a team going 22-2, there is some real trouble. That's a lot of "ifs" but it's what makes this thing fun. After all 2011 was really maybe 5% fried chicken and 95% team turning into a MASH unit.