The Fenway Factor - our offense is worse than it looks, our pitching is better

[Bellhorn04]

I keep reading about how our offense is fine and our pitching is our big problem. Yet on this current road trip we're not giving up many runs, but we're losing games.

 

Everybody knows Fenway is a good hitter's park. But you have to really go into the numbers to see what an impact Fenway has.

 

These are some simple numbers which I think show how much both our offensive numbers and pitching numbers are inflated by the Fenway Factor.

 

American League average runs scored per game = 4.37

American League average ERA = 4.04

American League average WHIP = 1.31

 

Red Sox home average runs scored per game = 5.60

Red Sox road average runs scored per game = 4.46

 

Red Sox home average runs allowed per game = 4.95

Red Sox road average runs allowed per game = 3.85

 

Red Sox road ERA = 3.65

Red Sox road WHIP = 1.23

[redsoxbeatz]

Yea! Screw pitching! more offense!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Yea! Screw pitching! more offense!!!!

 

Hey I'd love to have more of both...

[a700hitter]

The offense has been good prior to this last road trip. It is not a Fenway effect. Our record at home has not been great. What has happened on this last trip is that Nava has finally cooled off. Aviles has been slumping and WMB cooled off and got injured forcing Punto into the lineup. Until recently WMB had been productive and Nava, Podsednik and others have made up for the absence of Crawford and Ellsbury and we have scored plenty. With those guys cooling off and Gonzo turning into a singles hitter, it is very obvious that opponents are not going to let Papi hurt them. He is not getting challenged, because he is the only deep threat in the lineup. They will continue to pitch around him until Ellsbury and Crawford come back and produce offensively. The biggest problem for our offense is the continued ineffectiveness of Gonzo. He's just a big slow singles hitter. He's what's wrong with the offense. He should be anchoring our lineup, but he is sinking it. Pitchers have no fear of him. They actually intentionally walked Cody Ross recently to face Gonzo. What is wrong with this offense is not the Fenway effect, but rather the AGon effect.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

I saw when they walked Ross to get to AGon. I thought that had to be the biggest slap to the face he could have received, and it would wake up his bat. I was wrong.

:thumbdown

[jung]

if WMB and Pedey have to spend any real time on the DL at least from what I can see, now they are the two guys out of the lineup that are likely to be two guys to many. If they do have to spend time on the DL even Ells and CC really cannot come back and replace what WMB and Pedey do.

 

They have faced pretty good pitching the last several games. Nava will likely hit better than he has most recently but I don't see him going back to being as hot as he was.

 

Aviles might be another story. Pitchers have found out how to pitch to him and he is really struggling.

 

AGons simply can no longer drive the ball for whatever reason. With WMB and Pedey out of the lineup if the opponent fields a RH pitcher, we are in real trouble right now. Ross is meat to RH pitchers, Aviles has been basically figured out and Pedey and WMB are not there right now.

 

I wish the Sox could have given Kalish a little more time. He is struggling but I really think he has simply been put in a very tough spot. He had a clean game in he field today. I hope that if the Sox are going to continue to use him as he tries to find his way back that today's game at least helps him to feel more confident with his play in the field. Think he is going through the same issues at the plate.

[Elktonnick]

In more than fifty years watching baseball, I can't recall a team more beset by injuries then the current club. Clearly something must be wrong with their entire approach to physical fitness and training.