Who will be the best 2012 1B

[iortiz]

All I've taken from your posting is a huge crush on Pujols. You do not give other players their due' date=' ever. [b']Pujols is starting to decline, and is not on a different level as the rest of the world anymore[/b].

 

This is the only reason that makes me wonder about this call, reason why IMO is not an easy call.

[iortiz]

What.... are you serious?

 

Can Bautista put better offensive numbers than Pujols next year? Yes, why not ? He just did last year.

[Emmz]

Point A is not true about Emmz at all. Anyone who looks at the numbers will have a huge crush on Pujols. This is a guy who averages 8 WAR per year his ENTIRE career. In 10 of his 11 seasons he has come in top 5 of MVP voting including 2011.

 

As far as decline... you must be very short-sighted. From May 30th on, he hit .322 with a 1.011 OPS, and that includes the month before and after his injury. He's about as injury prone as a brick wall.

 

And as you said in the other thread, he plays a position that can allow him to play for a long time, and now that he's in the AL, he could even DH if it gets to that point.

 

Pujols is sitting pretty with absolutely 0 sign of real decline. I'd love to have a guy who hits for well over 1.000 in the post season and is declining. Would love to have a guy who's got a 1.000 OPS for most of the season and is declining. Thank you for looking at the splits, I would've missed that, and that's actually pretty significant. I don't think Pujols is going to start the year with two straight under .800 OPS months.

 

Even if he didn't put up classic Pujols numbers from June on up through the playoffs, there's still nothing even close to suggesting he's on the decline.

 

I cannot express how silly that sounds.

[Emmz]

Can Bautista put better offensive numbers than Pujols next year? Yes' date=' why not ? He just did last year.[/quote']

 

You make it sound like he's as good a bet to do it as Pujols though. All the arguments here are spot on, there's no way you can rationally say Pujols isn't the favorite to be the best offensive player in baseball.

 

I understand if you say he's got the best shot besides Pujols, and he'll be competitive I'm sure. That's all you can really say though. You can't be as sure that he'll continue to produce huge numbers as you can with Pujols, that's about all there is too it from my POV. I think the stats support that too.

 

I actually think Cabrera is the next safest pick. He's been just a couple steps below Pujols offensively since about 2004.

[iortiz]

You make it sound like he's as good a bet to do it as Pujols though. All the arguments here are spot on, there's no way you can rationally say Pujols isn't the favorite to be the best offensive player in baseball.

 

I understand if you say he's got the best shot besides Pujols, and he'll be competitive I'm sure. That's all you can really say though. You can't be as sure that he'll continue to produce huge numbers as you can with Pujols, that's about all there is too it from my POV. I think the stats support that too.

 

I actually think Cabrera is the next safest pick. He's been just a couple steps below Pujols offensively since about 2004.

 

I got your point. I understand all you say about his numbers and all that stuff.

 

My only remote concern is whether he already start or is about to start his decline or not, thats all. You say he is still in his prime. To me is not that clear. As I said, I need to see him next year in order to make a stronger case and emit an opinion since last 2 years for whatever reason he wasn't the #1.

 

On the other hand, if you ask me, Can Bautista/Cabrera/Gonzalez, etc. finish above Pujols? My answer is still yes, they can. Bautista finished with a 1.056 and Cabrera with 1.033, Pujols? .906 last year. In 2010 Hamilton finished with 1.044 and Cabrera 1.042, Pujols? 1.011.

 

Hell rethinking, Cabrera seems to me the most consistent than the others lately (last 2 years), regardless Cabrera is younger. Notice that I'm not saying that Cabrera or Bautista have been better career baseball players than Pujols neither two years is enough frame to make a call nor Pujols is not a safe bet. I'm just saying that this call is not an easy one as you are assuming, from my perspective.

 

IYO when is the right time to drop guy's career numbers in order to forecast that the guy won't be the #1 anymore? When a guy hasn't been the best, lets say, the last 3 years? 4? ? when? As I said, for whatever reason he hasn't been the best the last 2 years at OPS, and that is a fact, reason why it opens the scrutiny, and the debate.

[Emmz]

He hasn't dropped his OPS though. Just because Pujols hasn't led the league, are you serious? Just because Ted Williams didn't lead the majors with 1.4 OPS two straight years doesn't mean he was on the decline, so that's hole-in-logic number one. Number two, Pujols has not been trending downward. There is as much proof that Bautista or anyone else is declining as there is that Pujols is declining.

 

It's a good question to ask, but the logic isn't there. Just because he's not leading the majors does not indicate jack s***.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure how you look the numbers, but he has dropped his OPS.

 

2008 1.114

2009 1.101

2010 1.011

2011 0.906

 

Still, those numbers are tremendous. My question is, is this a tendency or not? I don't have the answer. IMO nobody has.

 

We'll see.

[iortiz]

OPS

 

Cabrera

 

2011 1.033

2010 1.042

2009 .942

2008 .887

 

Pujols

 

2011 .906

2010 1.011

2009 1.101

2008 1.114

 

Gonzalez

 

2011 .957

2010 .904

2009 .958

2008 .871

 

Teixeira

2011 .835

2010 .846

2009 .948

2008 .962

[Thunder]

Offensive Stats aren't the only part of it. Count Gold Gloves too.

I voted Pujols. He's confident now that he signed a monster 10 year deal.

[Laser Show]

My vote goes to Miggy. The guy quietly plays his ass off every year, and he's still only 28.

[Emmz]

I'm not sure how you look the numbers, but he has dropped his OPS.

 

2008 1.114

2009 1.101

2010 1.011

2011 0.906

 

Still, those numbers are tremendous. My question is, is this a tendency or not? I don't have the answer. IMO nobody has.

 

We'll see.

 

Sorry, but his OPS was in line with career averages in 2010, and for the majority of 2011. That's not dropping off dude. If you seriously think that he'll hit .750 for two months again then yeah, there is cause for concern I guess, but there's no rational way to back that up.

 

I'll never convince you I'm sure, but there's no way in hell you can convince me that's a sign of a drop-off. So we can agree on disagreement I guess.

[iortiz]

Sorry' date=' [b']but his OPS was in line with career averages in 2010, and for the majority of 2011[/b]. That's not dropping off dude. If you seriously think that he'll hit .750 for two months again then yeah, there is cause for concern I guess, but there's no rational way to back that up.

 

I'll never convince you I'm sure, but there's no way in hell you can convince me that's a sign of a drop-off. So we can agree on disagreement I guess.

 

You got a good point here. It is a good way to see it.

 

As I said, I don't have the answer, It's unlikely he repeats his 2011 numbers, but hell, still those 2011 numbers are very nice, those are elite numbers.

 

The thing is that we are talking about finish first, at least in this department. Can Pujols finish first? Of course he can but the call is not that easy or clear to me as I would call maybe 3-4 years ago.

 

When I see Cabrera's numbers (last 2 years) or A-God's 1st half season numbers (regardless the upside batting in Fenway), and then Pujols very slightly decline, makes me wonder a little bit about this call.

 

I'm just saying that I need to see him next year and make me sure that this is not the beginning of a little decline (If we want to call it that way), that's all.

[Emmz]

I will maybe start to think he's declining if he starts this season off slow again and it becomes a trend, other than that I think most would agree at this point, there's very little to suggest it's anything other than a fluke. If he does it again, it becomes a concern for a negative trend. I fully expect to see 1.000 OPS Pujols next year.

[iortiz]

I will maybe start to think he's declining if he starts this season off slow again and it becomes a trend' date=' other than that I think most would agree at this point, there's very little to suggest it's anything other than a fluke. If he does it again, it becomes a concern for a negative trend. I fully expect to see 1.000 OPS Pujols next year.[/quote']

 

Finally, I agree 100%.