Your perfect offseason

[User Name]

Not as bad as Beltran, and his issues aren't chronic, like Beltran's knees. I'll come up with an estimate of how much money the Sox have to play with (assuming they stay just under the salary cap) a bit later.

[User Name]

The Sox currently have 101,000,000 dollars tied up to the roster, not considering Arb players and re-signing Papelbon.

 

Add 13 million for Paps, and it increases to 114,000,000. They should also have around $25 millions tied up in arbitration-elegible players (i'm overstating, just in case), which adds up to 139,000,000.

 

With a luxury tax treshold that should be right around 183 million dollars, that gives the Sox around 35 million to play with while staying comfortably under the luxury tax.

 

$15 mill for Beltran, $10 mill for Jackson, and you have around $14 mill to play around with for the bullpen, a bench player, and a couple insurance arms.

 

Sounds pretty good to me.

[jung]

I had been using $31M. I was using a combination of the Luxury Tax plus some Sox business realities which are not very pretty right now and that is how I arrived at $31. Do you want to use $35M or $39? It looks like you might actually be using $39M.

 

Wish I had the fiscal 2011 actuals and the 2012 projections but I don't and I don't expect to see anything that helps until February or March next year.

[Palodios]

The Sox currently have 101,000,000 dollars tied up to the roster, not considering Arb players and re-signing Papelbon.

 

Add 13 million for Paps, and it increases to 114,000,000. They should also have around $25 millions tied up in arbitration-elegible players (i'm overstating, just in case), which adds up to 139,000,000.

 

With a luxury tax treshold that should be right around 183 million dollars, that gives the Sox around 35 million to play with while staying comfortably under the luxury tax.

 

$15 mill for Beltran, $10 mill for Jackson, and you have around $14 mill to play around with for the bullpen, a bench player, and a couple insurance arms.

 

Sounds pretty good to me.

 

I dug this up for you. Atwork made a financials thread, and I made some necessary edits. Its in the Offseason thread somewhere. You can also subtract the 3 million from Lackey's contract because of the vesting option, and add money for Scutaro, but I think this should be relatively accurate:

 

 

 

 

 

I just wanted to add AtWork's post from the 2012 Financials Thread, since it has all of the luxury cap numbers. Just to be clear, this is mostly his work, but I pretty much threw out all of his arbitration estimates(because they were terrible) and added my own, with comparisons to other players in the same positions at the same or similar arbitration years:

 

Let me preface by saying that I calculated every player's salary by their annual average salary over the length of their contract because that is how they are calculated for the purpose of the luxury tax threshold. All figures are in millions and rounded to to the 100th.

 

Players Under Contract

Gonzalez - 20.71

Crawford - 20.29

Beckett - 17

Lackey - 16.5

Youkilis - 10.31

Matsuzaka - 8.67

Buchholz - 7.49

Pedroia - 6.75

Jenks - 6

Lester - 6

Iglesias - 2.06

Scutaro - 1.5 (cost of buyout)

123.02 total.

 

 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Ellsbury - 11 (comparison-- Hamilton)

Bard - 4.00 (comparison-- Papelbon)

Aceves - 3.00 (no comparison)

Saltalamacchia - 1.80(comparison Navarro)

Albers - 1.30 (comparison Chamberlain)

Lowrie - 1.20(so few games played, he doesn't have a very strong case)

Aviles - 1.20

Morales - 0.50

 

 

24 total.

 

That would give us a salary of $147.02 million going into next year. If you round out the rest of the 40-man with players making an average of 0.50 million a year, that would mean our base salary going into 2012 sits at $157.02 million. The luxury tax threshold in 2012 will be $186 million. If you reserve $5 million for contract bonuses, that leaves us with just over $24 million to work with in free agency next year to sign a DH, a starter, a closer, a shortstop, a backup catcher and possibly a right fielder. The arbitration may be a little off, but they're all in the right ballpark.

[User Name]

Cot's lists the non-arb obligations at 101,324,000. Where's the difference?

 

Maybe Cot's uses AAV to calculate salary and that poster didn't, or the other way around?

 

AAV is what counts for luxury tax purposes.

[jung]

That would give us a salary of $147.02 million going into next year. If you round out the rest of the 40-man with players making an average of 0.50 million a year, that would mean our base salary going into 2012 sits at $157.02 million. The luxury tax threshold in 2012 will be $186 million. If you reserve $5 million for contract bonuses, that leaves us with just over $24 million to work with in free agency next year to sign a DH, a starter, a closer, a shortstop, a backup catcher and possibly a right fielder. The arbitration may be a little off, but they're all in the right ballpark.

__________________

 

Jesus...before I started playing with $31 I tried to do what I wanted (or really not) with $27M. That was tough! $24 makes it really tough.

[Palodios]

Cot's lists the non-arb obligations at 101,324,000. Where's the difference?

 

Maybe Cot's uses AAV to calculate salary and that poster didn't, or the other way around?

 

AAV is what counts for luxury tax purposes.

 

Cots uses actual salaries per year. AtWork's calculations used the AAV.

[User Name]

Cots uses actual salaries per year. AtWork's calculations used the AAV.

 

Then there has to be a mistake, because by actual salaries (Cot's), the total should be higher than AAV (Poster).

 

I'll get back to you on this one.

[Palodios]

Then there has to be a mistake, because by actual salaries (Cot's), the total should be higher than AAV (Poster).

 

I'll get back to you on this one.

 

Cots doesn't include A-gon's or Buchholz's contracts.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Youk, Buchholz, Lester and Pedroia will be making lower than their AAV next season since they all signed deals that start cheap then get very pricey. Also, AtWork didnt factor in the $6 mil for Scutaro, only his $1.5 mil buyout. So, you're really dealing with just under $20 mil.

[User Name]

Buch is arb-elegible, but you're right on A-Gon.

 

Disregard that, forgot about the extension.

[jacksonianmarch]

He isnt, he signed an extension last yr.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2011/04/10/details-on-clay-buchholz-contract/

[User Name]

Just edited.

[redsoxrules]

The Sox currently have 101,000,000 dollars tied up to the roster, not considering Arb players and re-signing Papelbon.

 

Add 13 million for Paps, and it increases to 114,000,000. They should also have around $25 millions tied up in arbitration-elegible players (i'm overstating, just in case), which adds up to 139,000,000.

 

With a luxury tax treshold that should be right around 183 million dollars, that gives the Sox around 35 million to play with while staying comfortably under the luxury tax.

 

$15 mill for Beltran, $10 mill for Jackson, and you have around $14 mill to play around with for the bullpen, a bench player, and a couple insurance arms.

 

Sounds pretty good to me.

 

I wouldn't pay 10 or close to it for Edwin Jackson .

 

5 Mil tops.

[Palodios]

I think Youk' date=' Buchholz, Lester and Pedroia will be making lower than their AAV next season since they all signed deals that start cheap then get very pricey. Also, AtWork didnt factor in the $6 mil for Scutaro, only his $1.5 mil buyout. So, you're really dealing with just under $20 mil.[/quote']

 

I mentioned that above. But you also have to factor in losing money on Lackey's AAV, which covers all but a million of Scutaro's contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, if you have $19.5 mil before hitting the cap this yr, then what do you do with it? If the job is to stay below the cap, then you cannot spend all of it, or else you'll risk going over the cap at the trade deadline 2012. For the most part, the sox cannot make a big acquisition. Any large acquisition would leave the other spots open. Also, it pretty much guarantees that Papi leaves. You have Lavarnway and you have a closer who is going to get $13+ mil per season. And you still need a middle of the road starter. Unless the sox get creative and deal away someone who is worth something (Ellsbury) then you're probably looking at them not even being able to maintain the status quo from a year ago

[User Name]

I mentioned that above. But you also have to factor in losing money on Lackey's AAV' date=' which covers all but a million of Scutaro's contract.[/quote']

 

Also, i believe the option becomes part of the AAV of the contract. That would make the AAV 4 million.

[Palodios]

Also' date=' i believe the option becomes part of the AAV of the contract. That would make the AAV 4 million.[/quote']

 

Scutaro had a contract of 2/11, so it makes it a 3/17 contract, so the AAV should be 5.66.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also' date=' i believe the option becomes part of the AAV of the contract. That would make the AAV 4 million.[/quote']

 

It doesnt become part of the AAV as it is an option. Until they exercise it, it does not become part of the AAV. They will obviously exercise it, but that's how it works

[User Name]

The option has already been exercised.

[Palodios]

It doesnt become part of the AAV as it is an option. Until they exercise it' date=' it does not become part of the AAV. They will obviously exercise it, but that's how it works[/quote']

 

They already exercised it.

 

You guys are off your game tonight.

[User Name]

Scutaro had a contract of 2/11' date=' so it makes it a 3/17 contract, so the AAV should be 5.66.[/quote']

 

You're right, because the Red Sox exercised their side of the option.

[jacksonianmarch]

They already exercised it.

 

You guys are off your game tonight.

 

I dont see it anywhere on the web. I know the option becomes available, but I dont think they need to pick it up until after his 5th yr, and there is no rush to do so

[Palodios]

I dont see it anywhere on the web. I know the option becomes available' date=' but I dont think they need to pick it up until after his 5th yr, and there is no rush to do so[/quote']

 

We were talking about the Scutaro contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh, I meant the Lackey option. I know Scutaro's was picked up

[User Name]

Lackey: 13.83

Gonzales:21.14

Crawford: 19.42

Beckett: 17

Jenks: 6

Bucholz: 7.48

Youk: 12.25

Iglesias: 2.060

Scutaro: 5.5

Pedroia: 8.1

Lester: 5

 

117.78

 

That's the figure i came up with, taking out signing bonuses (which don't count towards AAV, i believe) from contracts and calculating my own AAV's.

 

Add 24 million from arb and you have 131.78. Add around 4.4 million for the rest of the 40-man roster.

 

I think 136 million is closer to what the current money tied up actually is.

 

Correct me on everything i may be wrong, because i think that both the other guy's numbers and mine are inaccurate.

 

+8.6 for Dice-K: 144.6

[jung]

Well I don't think Edwin Jackson could be had for $5M. If he could be I am buyin' cause I am tellin' ya this is hard as hell with the available money.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lackey's AAV is off, since the option hasnt been picked up yet.

 

You are missing DiceK, Tazawa, and a few others

[User Name]

Lackey's AAV is off, since the option hasnt been picked up yet.

 

You are missing DiceK, Tazawa, and a few others

 

Added Dice-K, Tazawa i factored in in the 24 mill for the arb group. I'm assuming Lackey's option will be picked up.

[Palodios]

Lackey: 13.83

Gonzales:21.14

Crawford: 19.42

Beckett: 17

Jenks: 6

Bucholz: 7.48

Youk: 12.25

Iglesias: 2.060

Scutaro: 5.5

Pedroia: 8.1

Lester: 5

 

117.78

 

That's the figure i came up with, taking out signing bonuses (which don't count towards AAV, i believe) from contracts and calculating my own AAV's.

 

Add 24 million from arb and you have 131.78. Add around 4.4 million for the rest of the 40-man roster.

 

I think 136 million is closer to what the current money tied up actually is.

 

Correct me on everything i may be wrong, because i think that both the other guy's numbers and mine are inaccurate.

 

+8.6 for Dice-K: 144.6

 

Not so sure why you're so adamant they're wrong. We verified that list in the 2012 financials thread. We were under the impression at the time that signing bonuses are included in the contract... if that is not true, then you can factor them out, otherwise the numbers all look correct.