2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

The key word in this analysis is "healthy". Injuries are part of the game and neither team scape from them, unfortunately. Papelbon was healthy. He constantly and consistently gave you -+65 IP-35+ SV/season. Bailey has not a good track record in that regard (healthy). Buch wasn't healthy. They say that he is ready, fine. He hasn't pitched in months, another question mark. Will Bard and Aceves be heathy as a SP? If yes, how are they going to perform and how many IP will they give you? Will Lester and Becket be healthy? Thinking that Bailey-Melancon will be a better duo than Papelbon-Bard is only a good wish IMO. Nevertheless if they stay close to them (Pap-Bard), They will help us a lot, no doubt.

 

A lot of "question marks" and "Ifs" that could improve the team but that can make it worse as well. It's all a matter of perspective IMO. Either way, We better bring the arms who can put us in a better position to compete next season.

It would be one story if answereing the question marks like Bailey's and Buchholz's health and the ability of Melancon to be an effective 8th inning guy would make the staff markedly better in 2012. Unfortunately, I think even when viewed in the most positive light, the 2012 pitching will be about the same as it was in 2011. If a few of the question marks don't have favorable outcomes, the 2012 pitching could be markedly worse.

[User Name]

For first rounder picks the % for making the big league club it is pretty good. 64% of them make it with 48% of them playing for three years or more.

 

It is a pretty steep slope to the second rounders. Second rounders make it at a rate of 41% with 25% of them playing for three years or more.

 

Third rounders make it at a rate of 31% with 20% of those playing for three years or more.

 

Fourth and fifth rounders both make it at a rate of 21% with about 13% staying for three years or more.

 

Past the fifth round I don't really think there is much there to even talk about. I guess they need guys to fill out their minor league rosters or I am not even sure they would have those rounds.

 

So I will grant you that it is relatively high for first rounders but I have never seen a breakout for high first rounders vs low first rounders and everybody gets a pick.

 

From the second through the fifth rounds, the drop off is not that steep and is virtually identical for the fourth and fifth rounds. At worst 1 out of 5 prospects will make it to your big league team even from those rounds.

 

Again my point is that I cannot see the logic in leaving the system thin of guys that you can bring up for depth into a worse case 1 out of 5 even in the fourth and fifth rounds. That does not make much sense to me when the result is Mike Cameron or some of other dregs that have occupied a Red Sox uniform. In addition since everybody gets a first round pick it still boils down to whether or not you develop them or trade them even in that round.

 

The only caveat to this argument is that the "Big Spenders" like the Red Sox and Yankees do not get outright first round draft picks on a yearly basis because of their Type-A FA acquisitions, or get them so low in the first round that most of the elite "can't miss" talent is already gone. I'm talking about guys like Lincecum, Price, Mauer, et al.

[User Name]

Re: Health.

 

Wasn't complacency by the manager and a s***** conditioning team supposedly some of the main reasons for the Sox' recent health problems?

 

Now that both of those have been replaced, why is it unrealistic to expect an improvement in player durability?

[example1]

It would be one story if answereing the question marks like Bailey's and Buchholz's health and the ability of Melancon to be an effective 8th inning guy would make the staff markedly better in 2012. Unfortunately' date=' I think even when viewed in the most positive light, the 2012 pitching will be about the same as it was in 2011. If a few of the question marks don't have favorable outcomes, the 2012 pitching could be markedly worse.[/quote']

 

Obviously they haven't added a huge piece to their rotation. Ultimately it will come down to the performance of the guys they have. I think there is a good chance that many of their pitchers can outperform their 2011 performance and, as ORS said, the 4 and 5 spots are unlikely to be as bad as the other guys were last year.

 

I don't think you're looking at one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but I think they are good enough to be somewhere between decent and quite good (on the optimistic end of the spectrum).

[ForeverYoung]

The only caveat to this argument is that the "Big Spenders" like the Red Sox and Yankees do not get outright first round draft picks on a yearly basis because of their Type-A FA acquisitions' date=' or get them so low in the first round that most of the elite "can't miss" talent is already gone. I'm talking about guys like Lincecum, Price, Mauer, et al.[/quote']

 

Well that should change after this year....with the new CBA approved.

 

Should mean that we will not have to sacrifice our farm talent in order to boost our MLB team.

[jung]

The only caveat to this argument is that the "Big Spenders" like the Red Sox and Yankees do not get outright first round draft picks on a yearly basis because of their Type-A FA acquisitions,

 

That is a good point User but I think I just heard the sound of the other shoe dropping. That is the other end of the Sox most recent team building mentality that has created this team as currently configured.

 

Again just to be clear, I would never argue that the Sox should make no FA acquisitions....I would never argue for keeping every prospect either. I would argue that the Sox have become woefully imbalanced both in the number of players it has under long term big money contract (to many) and the number of viable candidates that they have that can be brought up and provide depth ala' guys that work their way up from prospect to MLB player (to few).

[a700hitter]

Obviously they haven't added a huge piece to their rotation. Ultimately it will come down to the performance of the guys they have. I think there is a good chance that many of their pitchers can outperform their 2011 performance and, as ORS said, the 4 and 5 spots are unlikely to be as bad as the other guys were last year.

 

I don't think you're looking at one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but I think they are good enough to be somewhere between decent and quite good (on the optimistic end of the spectrum).

Do you see a high likelihood that the current pitchers will markedly outperform 2011, perform about the same as 2011, or markedly underperform 2011. Which do you view as the likely outcome?

[User Name]

That is a good point User but I think I just heard the sound of the other shoe dropping. That is the other end of the Sox most recent team building mentality that has created this team as currently configured.

 

Again just to be clear, I would never argue that the Sox should make no FA acquisitions....I would never argue for keeping every prospect either. I would argue that the Sox have become woefully imbalanced both in the number of players it has under long term big money contract (to many) and the number of viable candidates that they have that can be brought up and provide depth ala' guys that work their way up from prospect to MLB player (to few).

 

The problem is that because of the success seen by the Sox in the Mid-00's, they deemed it a good idea to start drafting high-upside HS talent thinking that the run of success was sustainable for a couple more years with what was the current core back then. The problem with that is that it takes a lot longer to develop, even though the payoff is usually much greater. That created a gap between the then current MLB-ready prospect crop and the next.

 

Don't be surprised if, in two or three years, guys like Bogaert, Jacobs and Barnes become high-production MLB players, making this current discussion seem a bit silly. The Sox farm system is very strong on talent, the problem being that it's very bottom-heavy.

[ForeverYoung]

Do you see a high likelihood that the current pitchers will markedly outperform 2011' date=' perform about the same as 2011, or markedly underperform 2011. Which do you view as the likely outcome?[/quote']

 

Clay being able to pitch and Dice-K coming back at All-Star break will mean an almost guaranteed improvement in 2011. Dice-K despite all his faults is still more reliable than Lackey and Wakefield.

[ForeverYoung]

The problem is that because of the success seen by the Sox in the Mid-00's, they deemed it a good idea to start drafting high-upside HS talent thinking that the run of success was sustainable for a couple more years with what was the current core back then. The problem with that is that it takes a lot longer to develop, even though the payoff is usually much greater. That created a gap between the then current MLB-ready prospect crop and the next.

 

Don't be surprised if, in two or three years, guys like Bogaert, Jacobs and Barnes become high-production MLB players, making this current discussion seem a bit silly. The Sox farm system is very strong on talent, the problem being that it's very bottom-heavy.

 

That has to be the best estimate on the Sox's farm system I have ever seen.

[ORS]

That's the best argument yet that the 2012 pitching will be improved as currently constituted. However' date=' other than to say that Bailey and Melancon constitute significant talent, you really didn't address how the bullpen plays out. How does Albers, Melancon and Bailey stack up against Wheeler, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon? I am assuming that Aceves is a starter, because he has been told to prepare to be a starter. I think there is a big drop off in the pen.[/quote']

I think Fat Albers is a mop-up guy this year. I would include Morales and possibly Miller to the list of guys that will be key contributors to the bullpen. Let's not forget about how a more tactical manager will impact the bullpen too. Aceves was very good last year, but consistenly misused IMO. Maybe this year's guy in the Aceves role isn't quite as good, but he is deployed more effectively, making his positive impact greater.

 

As to the health, I think a couple of things could potentially work toward the pitching staff being more durable this year. All three of the top three were culprits in the beer/chicken fiasco at the end of the season. I'd be surprised if their offseason training regiment was not more vigorous than past offseasons in order to rebuild their tarnished images. Plus, I expect this year's spring training to address this issue as well. Improved conditioning could help reduce some of the nagging soft tissue injuries that has impacted their playing time in the past. Who knows, maybe nothing changed this offseason, but I think those are reasonable assumptions.

[User Name]

Re: Health.

 

Wasn't complacency by the manager and a s***** conditioning team supposedly some of the main reasons for the Sox' recent health problems?

 

Now that both of those have been replaced, why is it unrealistic to expect an improvement in player durability?

 

 

As to the health, I think a couple of things could potentially work toward the pitching staff being more durable this year. All three of the top three were culprits in the beer/chicken fiasco at the end of the season. I'd be surprised if their offseason training regiment was not more vigorous than past offseasons in order to rebuild their tarnished images. Plus, I expect this year's spring training to address this issue as well. Improved conditioning could help reduce some of the nagging soft tissue injuries that has impacted their playing time in the past. Who knows, maybe nothing changed this offseason, but I think those are reasonable assumptions.

 

We're pretty much on the same page here, good sir. Good analysis.

[a700hitter]

Clay being able to pitch and Dice-K coming back at All-Star break will mean an almost guaranteed improvement in 2011. Dice-K despite all his faults is still more reliable than Lackey and Wakefield.

Dice K will not be back by the All Star Break. That is very unlikely. Starting pitchers take at least 18 months to return to effectiveness. That's a minimum. We'll be lucky to see him by September.

 

Edit: And what about the bullpen?

[jung]

Re: Health.

 

Wasn't complacency by the manager and a s***** conditioning team supposedly some of the main reasons for the Sox' recent health problems?

 

Now that both of those have been replaced, why is it unrealistic to expect an improvement in player durability?

 

I am skeptical here, and I appreciate your use of the word supposedly, mainly because the whole conditioning thing appeared to me to be a knee jerk reaction to the result of the 2011 season. I think there is a fair amount of red herring in that argument. Maybe it will be markedly better in 2012 due to changes in the staffing. However in the MLB the strength and conditioning guys are glorified towel holders when you compare them to their counterparts in the NFL just as an example. The amount of actual control that an MLB team can exert on a player is a paper tiger compared again to the NFL equivalent. The player himself, more than any of the four major NA pro team sports is more responsible for his own conditioning.

 

One could even at least argue that the number of legitimate training regimens that have been developed strictly for baseball are a paltry few compared again to a sport like football. Ya' wanna' keep the muscles required to swing the bat effectively, supple and sound, hopefully avoiding injury? Pick up a bat and swing the hell out of the thing. Ya' wanna' strengthen your throwing arm? Pick up the ball and throw hell out of it.

[Elktonnick]

Re: Health.

 

Wasn't complacency by the manager and a s***** conditioning team supposedly some of the main reasons for the Sox' recent health problems?

 

Now that both of those have been replaced, why is it unrealistic to expect an improvement in player durability?

 

While that is a fair observation, I think part if not all of the problem was Theo and perhaps higher enabled the players' complacency. Unless BC and above back up their manager on this issue, the players will take advantage of that. I hope the FO has learned its lesson but in this case I am from Missouri.

[jung]

Don't be surprised if, in two or three years, guys like Bogaert, Jacobs and Barnes become high-production MLB players, making this current discussion seem a bit silly. The Sox farm system is very strong on talent, the problem being that it's very bottom-heavy.

 

Understood User and again accurate. Now it remains to be seen if the Sox will have the patience that they have not shown recently and keep those guys. I agree there is more than an even chance that they will hang onto the guys you mention. The other way has not worked out so great. Also I am hoping for and actually see so far less of a propensity to sort of ordain that a certain player or players will be Red Sox come hell or high water. May be to early to tell but I think there is more than an even bet that we will see a more even handed view in this regard and those guys that you mentioned make it up to the show.

[User Name]

While that is a fair observation' date=' I think part if not all of the problem was Theo and perhaps higher enabled the players' complacency. Unless BC and above back up their manager on this issue, the players will take advantage of that. I hope the FO has learned its lesson but in this case I am from Missouri.[/quote']

 

That's why they signed Valentine. If there's something we know about the guys is that it's "his" clubhouse. He may take some constructive criticism from the higher-ups, but he probably won't allow them to meddle with his running of the clubhouse. His signing is, to me, a very strong signal that the FO has, indeed, learned its lesson.

[User Name]

Understood User and again accurate. Now it remains to be seen if the Sox will have the patience that they have not shown recently and keep those guys. I agree there is more than an even chance that they will hang onto the guys you mention. The other way has not worked out so great. Also I am hoping for and actually see so far less of a propensity to sort of ordain that a certain player or players will be Red Sox come hell or high water. May be to early to tell but I think there is more than an even bet that we will see a more even handed view in this regard and those guys that you mentioned make it up to the show.

 

Also (and i believe we have agreed on this in a prior discussion) they need to accelerate the development of some of this pitching prospects. They need to finish learning the ropes in the Majors.

[RedSoxNC84]

Dice K will not be back by the All Star Break. That is very unlikely. Starting pitchers take at least 18 months to return to effectiveness. That's a minimum. We'll be lucky to see him by September.

 

Edit: And what about the bullpen?

 

What if the rotation somehow manages to stay intact, or maybe some of the depth guys step up and perform well in the role. When Dice K comes back, possibly he could pitch out of the bullpen?

 

IMO I think he would be a better bullpen piece than a starter anyhow.

[jung]

Also (and i believe we have agreed on this in a prior discussion) they need to accelerate the development of some of this pitching prospects. They need to finish learning the ropes in the Majors.

 

 

AAAAAAAbsolutely!

[a700hitter]

I think Fat Albers is a mop-up guy this year. I would include Morales and possibly Miller to the list of guys that will be key contributors to the bullpen. Let's not forget about how a more tactical manager will impact the bullpen too. Aceves was very good last year, but consistenly misused IMO. Maybe this year's guy in the Aceves role isn't quite as good, but he is deployed more effectively, making his positive impact greater.

 

As to the health, I think a couple of things could potentially work toward the pitching staff being more durable this year. All three of the top three were culprits in the beer/chicken fiasco at the end of the season. I'd be surprised if their offseason training regiment was not more vigorous than past offseasons in order to rebuild their tarnished images. Plus, I expect this year's spring training to address this issue as well. Improved conditioning could help reduce some of the nagging soft tissue injuries that has impacted their playing time in the past. Who knows, maybe nothing changed this offseason, but I think those are reasonable assumptions.

In light of your analysis, I'll ask you the same question that I asked E1. Do you see a high likelihood that the current pitchers will markedly outperform 2011, perform about the same as 2011, or markedly under perform 2011. Which do you view as the likely outcome?

 

 

BTW. With regard to health and conditioning, I am not so optimistic that there will be much improvement due to organizational changes. Hopefully, a number of these guys are self-motivated by their lousy 2011 showings. Beckett just recently met up with Bobby V face to face, so I don't think our strength and conditioning people have been working with him yet.

[iortiz]

I wasn't talking about you specifically though. I apologize if you took it that way.

 

My bad, then... No problem.

[ForeverYoung]

Dice K will not be back by the All Star Break. That is very unlikely. Starting pitchers take at least 18 months to return to effectiveness. That's a minimum. We'll be lucky to see him by September.

 

Edit: And what about the bullpen?

 

I'm not sure about Dice-K's recovery but if his previous injury recoveries are any litmus test he will pitch before that 18 month mark. Not to mention, unlike the National's treatment of Strasburg, we wont have him past this year so we won't be using kit gloves when handling Dice-K.

 

I think the bullpen is stronger with the removal of 3 innings and out Lackey, and 5 inning Wakefield. If Miller doesn't make the starting rotation he will settle into Aceve's role as the work-horse inning eater, when Aceves makes the rotation. Bard should stay in the pen and with the addition of Melancon and Bailey that makes a pretty nasty 7,8,9 punch. Bailey may not be Papelbon, but with our offense there really isn't as big of a need to rely on a closer as with Philly. I think our Bullpen is set to be a little bit better than average, not stellar, but honestly we just need enough to not allow 4 or more runs a game.

[User Name]

Padilla would be an ideal swingman if he could keep his idiocy under control

[jung]

Padilla would be an ideal swingman if he could keep his idiocy under control

 

Well they got an interpreter for dice....maybe a dugout psych for Padilla. Geez, this might really be the end for beer in the clubhouse!

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure about Dice-K's recovery but if his previous injury recoveries are any litmus test he will pitch before that 18 month mark. Not to mention' date=' unlike the National's treatment of Strasburg, we wont have him past this year so we won't be using kit gloves when handling Dice-K.[/quote']Recovering from TJ surgery is much different than any of his prior injuries. I think you are being unrealistic to expect him back by the All Star break.

 

 

I think the bullpen is stronger with the removal of 3 innings and out Lackey' date=' and 5 inning Wakefield. If Miller doesn't make the starting rotation he will settle into Aceve's role as the work-horse inning eater, when Aceves makes the rotation. Bard should stay in the pen and with the addition of Melancon and Bailey that makes a pretty nasty 7,8,9 punch. Bailey may not be Papelbon, but with our offense there really isn't as big of a need to rely on a closer as with Philly. I think our Bullpen is set to be a little bit better than average, not stellar, but honestly we just need enough to not allow 4 or more runs a game.[/quote']How do you have Bard in the Bullpen? Who are your 4th and 5th starters? And do we have any good reason to believe that we have anyone in the organization to take the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation that can go deep into games to preserve the bullpen?

[iortiz]

It would be one story if answereing the question marks like Bailey's and Buchholz's health and the ability of Melancon to be an effective 8th inning guy would make the staff markedly better in 2012. Unfortunately' date=' I think even when viewed in the most positive light, the 2012 pitching will be about the same as it was in 2011. If a few of the question marks don't have favorable outcomes, the 2012 pitching could be markedly worse.[/quote']

 

Nobody likes tons of question marks and "ifs", mostly when you already have a 180 M payroll assembled. Most of the times going like this (a lot of ifs) result in bad outcomes. As you said, We are very close (couple of moves) to dissipate several of those question marks and "ifs". Sounds crazy that a SP and that a couple of relievers could change dramatically the perspective. The way I see the thing, unfortunately that is the perspective.

[iortiz]

Re: Health.

 

Wasn't complacency by the manager and a s***** conditioning team supposedly some of the main reasons for the Sox' recent health problems?

 

Now that both of those have been replaced, why is it unrealistic to expect an improvement in player durability?

 

I said this early.

 

BV could help us a lot in this regard. He needs to change the chip to the players. The Players need to leave behind bad practices and attitudes. If we don't bring the pitcher(s), this factor can play to our favor or against us, again.

[ForeverYoung]

Recovering from TJ surgery is much different than any of his prior injuries. I think you are being unrealistic to expect him back by the All Star break.

 

 

How do you have Bard in the Bullpen? Who are your 4th and 5th starters? And do we have any good reason to believe that we have anyone in the organization to take the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation that can go deep into games to preserve the bullpen?

 

I might be unrealistic on Dice-K's recovery, I will give you that.

 

I have my Starting Rotation looking like this:

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchohlz

4. Aceves

5. Silva

 

Cook will be in AAA and will be the spot/ injury pitcher, and Morales, Dubrount will earn some starts during the season.

Like I have said before, I think this is a band-aid year. We patch things up and try and hope our offense carries us into the post-season, than we get real serious next Free Agent class.

[User Name]

Morales is not a starting pitcher though. It's more likely that Doubront and Padilla (if signed) will take some of the spot starts.