2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

If we let Ortiz walk' date=' we need to get another big bat or the lineup will take a big turn down. Beltran would probably cost more than Ortiz, so what would be gained. We can probably get Ortiz for $8 million per year-- good value.[/quote']

 

8 million per year? Where did you hear that from? I've been very against re-signing Ortiz, but 2/16 for him would be a real steal. I heard he wanted a contract between 30-45.

[User Name]

I agree here. Ortiz is getting older, I just hope we don't sign him for a 3 year deal. He is what now, 36? Maybe a 2 year deal with a club option for the 3rd. I want Papi back, but he is a cheaper option than Beltran. Although, if we sign Beltran to be out RF as well, we could substantially improve our offense.

 

I really like making a trade for Gio Gonzalez. I am liking his 3.12 ERA, and with actual offensive production behind him, he could easily be a 20 game winner. He is only 25 as well. I am really interested in seeing what the A's would want in return for him. If we have Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, and Gonzalez in the rotation, then that would be solid. I don't know if they are going to experiment with Aceves, Doubront, or Bard as a starter, but I would prefer to keep them in the pen and get two starters this offseason that are proven to complement Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz.

 

It is interesting to look into Jackson, Wang, Buehrle, Wilson, and Oswalt this offseason. Whatever happens with acquiring starting pitchers, it will definitely no doubt be an improvement from last season.

 

Sure, you love his 3.12 ERA, but how about his 1.31 WHIP or his 4.1 BB/9 and and .070 point differential in SLG% allowed on the road compared to home?

 

Don't become enamored by the ERA of a pitcher who pitches half his game in Oakland and is wilder than a Cowboys fan after Yoko Romo actually completes a decent deep pass.

 

Pass on Gonzales.

[User Name]

8 million per year? Where did you hear that from? I've been very against re-signing Ortiz' date=' but 2/16 for him would be a real steal. I heard he wanted a contract between 30-45.[/quote']

 

He didn't hear it anywhere. He made it up. Ortiz is looking for a base salary similar to what he had this year.

[example1]

If we let Ortiz walk' date=' we need to get another big bat or the lineup will take a big turn down. Beltran would probably cost more than Ortiz, so what would be gained. We can probably get Ortiz for $8 million per year-- good value.[/quote']

 

A guy who can play the outfield so Adrian doesn't have to be stashed in RF in NL parks, and an open DH spot to create much more roster flexibility.

 

Also, probably costs the same or less but could net the Sox a couple draft picks since CB ain't being offered arb.

[jung]

I don't know if it will boil down to Paps vs Ortiz but if it does, then keeping Paps and letting Ortiz go sounds like the right order.

 

2012 wil be the first year for AGons at $21M up from $6.5M in 2011 so that does put something of a dent in the funds. Crawford goes from $15 in 2011 to his first year at $20M in 2012 as well so that is a total of $19.5M. In part I think that is why more and more folks are making the same choice you are making as $12M from Ortiz could go a long way right now.

 

$5M left over from Drew and Cameron plus $12M from Ortiz and the $8M I am hoping JH comes up with gets $25M. Wake can't come back here. There is nothing he will be able to do any longer other than turn Fenway into a launch pad so that is $2M. This whole thing of Tek being unwilling to give up that stupid C has just got to stop. Maybe the Sox will have to announce that they will have no captain in 2012 just to end it. I would think Tek has outlived his usefulness at this point but maybe not. If Tek goes then that is another $2M for $29M. I know it does sound trivial but $4M is an actual real major league baseball player. In part that is my point. These $$$ are not meaningless at all.

 

I don't think Ortiz gets all the way down to $8M either and we can't go on claiming that we have to give up some offense for pitching and have to many LH bats and then not give anything up. If we keep Ells, we need to make sure we get Crawford back up to speed, probably have to gamble on Kalish in RF and get some backup OF. If JH give Cherington $12M extra instead of $8M that is probably the difference between looking at the Beltran's or Cuddyer's instead of some pure backup guy.

 

Take a look at that list and start to put all $29M against it and see how quickly you will spend even $29M let alone $25M. In fact I am inclined to think that we might be forced to gamble on Kalish in RF. Not sure how we even get a #3 or #4 starter which we must have and a couple of good relievers and some bench strength and still have the money for a $10M OF. Maybe either Volquez or Wang along with a solid #3/4 can keep both Aceves and Bard in the bullpen.

[redsoxfan3]

Sure, you love his 3.12 ERA, but how about his 1.31 WHIP or his 4.1 BB/9 and and .070 point differential in SLG% allowed on the road compared to home?

 

Don't become enamored by the ERA of a pitcher who pitches half his game in Oakland and is wilder than a Cowboys fan after Yoko Romo actually completes a decent deep pass.

 

Pass on Gonzales.

 

His WHIP was 1.32. But anyways, his WHIP was better than Lackey and Wakefield's WHIP. I would take Gonzalez over either of them. Not to mention I am not expecting Gonzalez to be the ace of this organization, just a good #4 starter. Lester's WHIP was 1.26 and Buchholz's WHIP was 1.29. Gonzalez's is really not much different. Also, who's to say it won't improve? I would not mind taking the chance on trading for Gonzalez. If he has a 3.12 ERA again and wins 20 games for us, I would be happy. It's an improvement over Lackey and Wakefield and that is what we need. I know anything is really an improvement over those two. If there are no other options, count me in for Gonzalez. He would improve this team.

[Palodios]

Sure, you love his 3.12 ERA, but how about his 1.31 WHIP or his 4.1 BB/9 and and .070 point differential in SLG% allowed on the road compared to home?

 

Don't become enamored by the ERA of a pitcher who pitches half his game in Oakland and is wilder than a Cowboys fan after Yoko Romo actually completes a decent deep pass.

 

Pass on Gonzales.

 

The unfortunate problem is that the majority of pitchers in the major leagues are going to have problems like this. 16 teams are already blacklisted as NL teams. AL West teams are in a pitcher park division. AL East teams won't trade within the division without a premium. The Red Sox need more trade targets than just the AL Central.

[User Name]

The unfortunate problem is that the majority of pitchers in the major leagues are going to have problems like this. 16 teams are already blacklisted as NL teams. AL West teams are in a pitcher park division. AL East teams won't trade within the division without a premium. The Red Sox need more trade targets than just the AL Central.

 

Not necessarily.

 

The Braves, with their stash of young pitching, need offense. So do the giants, who may give up Cain, the Marlins also have a couple of arms (highlighted by Anibal Sanchez) who are about to get expensive.

 

There are options in both the trade and FA markets to acquire a good #3 pitcher, but overpaying for a guy who walks 4 per 9 inning should not be one of them.

[User Name]

His WHIP was 1.32. But anyways' date=' his WHIP was better than Lackey and Wakefield's WHIP. I would take Gonzalez over either of them. Not to mention I am not expecting Gonzalez to be the ace of this organization, just a good #4 starter. Lester's WHIP was 1.26 and Buchholz's WHIP was 1.29. Gonzalez's is really not much different. Also, who's to say it won't improve? I would not mind taking the chance on trading for Gonzalez. If he has a 3.12 ERA again and wins 20 games for us, I would be happy. It's an improvement over Lackey and Wakefield and that is what we need. I know anything is really an improvement over those two. If there are no other options, count me in for Gonzalez. He would improve this team.[/quote']

 

I did not compare Gonzales to any of the Red Sox pitchers, so i don't know why this is a specific point.

 

Gonzales would cost #1/#2 value in prospects while being, as you said, a #4 at best.

[Palodios]

Not necessarily.

 

The Braves, with their stash of young pitching, need offense. So do the giants, who may give up Cain, the Marlins also have a couple of arms (highlighted by Anibal Sanchez) who are about to get expensive.

 

There are options in both the trade and FA markets to acquire a good #3 pitcher, but overpaying for a guy who walks 4 per 9 inning should not be one of them.

 

There are bonafide aces in the NL who are going to be aces in the AL. But those are going to be very cost prohibitive. Sanchez was the Marlins's best pitcher last year, and would probably be a #4 here. The Braves may be a fit, but when you're dealing with a world series contender, you're going to have to give them value for today, not tomorrow. Same for the Giants, could you imagine what Cain would cost? The organization is more likely going to target #3/4 type players.

[User Name]

There are bonafide aces in the NL who are going to be aces in the AL. But those are going to be very cost prohibitive. Sanchez was the Marlins's best pitcher last year' date=' and would probably be a #4 here. The Braves may be a fit, but when you're dealing with a world series contender, you're going to have to give them value for today, not tomorrow. Same for the Giants, could you imagine what Cain would cost? The organization is more likely going to target #3/4 type players.[/quote']

 

Wasn't the initial point of this conversation Gonzales? If it was, he's not going to cost #3 value. That is precisely my point. You either go for an AL guy who's cost is what you expect it to be, or a high-upside NL guy who's cost is not prohibitive.

 

Gonzalez may be almost as costly as Cain, knowing the market for younger arms.

[a700hitter]

8 million per year? Where did you hear that from? I've been very against re-signing Ortiz' date=' but 2/16 for him would be a real steal. I heard he wanted a contract between 30-45.[/quote']He can ask for whatever he wants, but there isn't much of a market for a pure DH. Cut out half the teams because they are in the NL. Most of the big market AL teams already have DH options. He isn't getting $15 million/yr from anyone.

[a700hitter]

A guy who can play the outfield so Adrian doesn't have to be stashed in RF in NL parks, and an open DH spot to create much more roster flexibility.

 

Also, probably costs the same or less but could net the Sox a couple draft picks since CB ain't being offered arb.

Beltran does give you more flexibility against NL teams, but Beltran's market value will be much higher than Ortiz's IMO.

[jung]

I don't think anybody tosses $15M at Ortiz either but I could see a team tossing $12M for one year plus a team option at him or maybe even grant him his two year wish but at $10 per. If not that then I can easily see a team offering 1 year plus a team option at $10M and that finally may turn out to be the best he can do.

[jacksonianmarch]

Someone is going to overpay Ortiz. He's an icon, charismatic, and as of right now, still producing. With offense way down in both leagues, someone will overpay. I think it will be Seattle at 3yrs $30 mil.

[RonVermette]

I expect the first decision will be about Ortiz. If he is signed all the money & attention will be on acquiring 2 starting pitchers.

[example1]

I did not compare Gonzales to any of the Red Sox pitchers, so i don't know why this is a specific point.

 

Gonzales would cost #1/#2 value in prospects while being, as you said, a #4 at best.

 

I don't know about this. The A's are weird with their moves sometimes. They can't honestly say that Gio is a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher. I don't think you're wrong that the cost could be prohibative, I just am not convinced that the A's could pretend that Gonzalez is a #1 or even a #2.

[SCM33]

Someone is going to overpay Ortiz. He's an icon' date=' charismatic, and as of right now, still producing. With offense way down in both leagues, someone will overpay. I think it will be Seattle at 3yrs $30 mil.[/quote']

 

Ortiz is not going to go to a team that has zero chance of winning for a couple of extra bucks. He has limited options. Whether we like it or not, Ortiz will be in Boston this year and his production would be very hard to replace if he left.

 

Hes not going anywhere.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ortiz loves to win, but this will be his final contract. He can always sign with a losing team then get dealt to a contender.

[SCM33]

Ortiz loves to win' date=' but this will be his final contract. He can always sign with a losing team then get dealt to a contender.[/quote']

 

Hes not signing with a s***** team Jacko. Sox will end up offering him a fair deal that he wont turn down.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't know about this. The A's are weird with their moves sometimes. They can't honestly say that Gio is a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher. I don't think you're wrong that the cost could be prohibative' date=' I just am not convinced that the A's could pretend that Gonzalez is a #1 or even a #2.[/quote']

 

Gio Gonzalez

 

2010- 200.2IP 3.23ERA 1.31WHIP 171K

2011- 202IP 3.12ERA 1.32WHIP 197K

 

That's pretty damn good and definitely #1-#2 type numbers. Plus, he's a lefty and he's 26. They should ask for a king's ransom for him

[jacksonianmarch]

Hes not signing with a s***** team Jacko. Sox will end up offering him a fair deal that he wont turn down.

 

I think the sox will offer him a fair deal, but they will get blown out of the water from another organization desperate to make a splash. I think the sox hope he leaves so they can avoid a sticky situation later on and so they can take 2 picks

[jung]

I don't know about this. The A's are weird with their moves sometimes. They can't honestly say that Gio is a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher. I don't think you're wrong that the cost could be prohibative, I just am not convinced that the A's could pretend that Gonzalez is a #1 or even a #2.

 

Well OK I guess I could see where an argument that he is a 1 or is even about to be a 1 would be hard to make but I would think making the argument that he is a 2 for many teams would not be that hard to make. I also agree that I would not want to get caught up in 2 compensation for him either.

[example1]

Beltran does give you more flexibility against NL teams' date=' but Beltran's market value will be much higher than Ortiz's IMO.[/quote']

 

I mentioned the NL flexability thing, but I really don't think that's a significant deal. Mostly I think the Sox will be okay with moving away from Ortiz for a number of reasons if his cost is based around his percieved value rather than the value of actual DHs in todays game.

 

Beltran offers a fair amount for a team like the Sox, not the least of which is some veteran presence and his switch-hitting abilities. He can also be the DH if a player like Kalish works his way into the lineup. I suspect with his arm and athleticism, Kalish will be the RF of the future, so Beltran can be a DH and occasional RF. This is a pretty damn good lineup:

 

Ellsbury-CF

Pedroia-2B

Gonzalez-1B

Youkilis-3B

Beltran-DH

Crawford-LF

Lavarnway/Salty-C

Scutaro-SS

Kalish-RF

 

 

Someone is going to overpay Ortiz. He's an icon' date=' charismatic, and as of right now, still producing. With offense way down in both leagues, someone will overpay. I think it will be Seattle at 3yrs $30 mil.[/quote']

 

I completely agree. A team like Seattle--who had Miguel Olivo batting 4th 43 times in 2011--would really be wise to add a solid mid-order bat like Ortiz. The Sox would be wise to collect the draft picks and move on.

[jung]

I wonder how much the Roberto Clemente award Ortiz received will influence team's and their willingness/desire to bring him in. There are many teams where that award would go a long way as far as the fan base is concerned. I still don't think that turns into $15M from anybody but I can see him getting $12 for one year and maybe even as much as $11 for two. $10 per for 3 years would be a gift I would think as that last year would be pretty hard to justify.

[User Name]

Gio Gonzalez

 

2010- 200.2IP 3.23ERA 1.31WHIP 171K

2011- 202IP 3.12ERA 1.32WHIP 197K

 

That's pretty damn good and definitely #1-#2 type numbers. Plus, he's a lefty and he's 26. They should ask for a king's ransom for him

 

A ransom he will not be worth. He's wild, and that weak division masks his shortcomings.

 

If they're going to go big, don't do it with him.

[example1]

Gio Gonzalez

 

2010- 200.2IP 3.23ERA 1.31WHIP 171K

2011- 202IP 3.12ERA 1.32WHIP 197K

 

That's pretty damn good and definitely #1-#2 type numbers. Plus, he's a lefty and he's 26. They should ask for a king's ransom for him

 

Significant home/away splits tell me that he really benefits from playing in Oakland:

 

2010: 2.56/3.92, WHIP: 1.20/1.43

2011: 2.70/3.62, WHIP: 1.23/1.42

 

Look at his WHIP and results against the better teams in baseball the last few years. I'm not blown away.

 

Combine not pitching at a stellar level away from OAK with going to a much tougher division and I'm not treating him as a #1 or #2 until he's shown that's what he is.

[jung]

The problem with Gonzalez is that he is not even a 3 in Boston. He is a 4 here but as everybody has said, Oakland would not be looking for 4 compensation. Are they shopping him?

[jacksonianmarch]

Gonzalez has proven more than Buchholz, so he'd be a #3 in Boston. But still, the A's will ask for the farm for Gonzalez. And they should

[User Name]

Gonzalez has proven more than Buchholz' date=' so he'd be a #3 in Boston. But still, the A's will ask for the farm for Gonzalez. And they should[/quote']

 

Buchholz has better stuff and control. If the Red Sox were to trade Buch, they would ask for the farm as well, and they should.