2011 Playoffs for granted?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Exactly. What about Dempster? He would have cost the farm. I've said it before. Every single year we hear that they didn't want to sacrifice the future' date=' so they sacrifice the present. Next season will be the same BS. Who are these great prospects that will be coming to Fenway next year or in 2013?[/quote']

 

Dempster has a 4.04 ERA since the trade deadline, and he throws in the NL Central. That equates to a 4.8-5.2 ERA in the AL East. That's hardly something that Theo should have traded for unless it was for guys who weren't going to make it past the rule 5 draft anyway (virtually the same guys that Bedard was traded for)

[jacksonianmarch]

So now you've gone from the sox will go to the playoffs 100%, no doubt, to don't blame the FO for their predicament. Sounds like someone is shifting in case the sox collapse

[a700hitter]

Yeah' date=' except that the main reason why the Yankees were able to overcome those pitching problems is because of the 'low risk, high reward' signings, or whatever you want to call them.[/quote']The critical difference is that the Yankees took those fliers on retreads right at the beginning of the season. If they didn't work out, they had plenty of time to go in another direction. For the Sox, the flier on Bedard was their last ditch effort.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So now you've gone from the sox will go to the playoffs 100%' date=' no doubt, to don't blame the FO for their predicament. Sounds like someone is shifting in case the sox collapse[/quote']

 

Please find a quote where I said that the Sox were 100% going to the post season. I said that the Rays have a huge uphill battle, especially with Beckett coming back, and with the Rays having to face the Red Sox and Yankees 11 times in 13 days.

 

Misquote much?

[iortiz]

It's funny how people here spend a loooot of time planning and talking about future and excusing a GM which has plenty access to the money and one of the highest payrolls in baseball, and what is worse, already failed last year and at this point he has the team in jeopardy to make the playoffs. IMO The ONLY outcome I would expect as an owner is at least the WS and if you rush me, win it; I don't care the injuries, I don't care players' personal problems, I don't care the damn Phillies or NY, and certainly I don't care the OPS and ERAs; I already put the damn money; With 180 MUSD payroll he has to plan, forecast and anticipate all these issues that any team can experiment, that is his DAMN JOB, but again, with the plus that he has access to the LIGHT=MONEY. Can't handle all these factors and deliver results? GO! as simple as that.

 

Sure, it ain't over yet, We'll se how it ends.

[a700hitter]

Two words. David Ortiz. That completely debunks this argument. He was a Rule 5 draft pick. Low risk' date=' high reward.[/quote']It's clear that you don't understand the term. David Ortiz was a low cost acquisition that ended up with a high reward. That is not "low risk high reward." The reason why it is not "low risk high reward" is because the odds that he would turn into a fulltime player with this kind of performance was very unexpected by everyone in baseball, including the Sox. He was a long shot to perform like that. 1 in a thousand Rule 5 picks, maybe even much greater than than, turn into David Ortiz. It is a high risk proposition. Because the odds of success are so high (i.e. it is very risky), the cost is low. When assessing an investment, you assess the risk at the time of purchase, not after performance. He was a high risk flier and those come with low price tags, and he paid off big. Low cost is not the same as low risk. You pay less for high risk investments. There is no such thing as a low risk high reward investment. The term is a misnomer used by sports GMs that are either ignorant with regard to investment philosophy and terminology or more likely they use the term to put a positive spin on an acquisition.

[Palodios]

With 180 MUSD payroll he has to plan' date=' forecast and anticipate all these issues that any team can experiment, that is his DAMN JOB, but again, with the plus [b']that he has access to the LIGHT=MONEY.[/b] Can't handle all these factors and deliver results? GO! as simple as that.

 

Sure, it ain't over yet, We'll se how it ends.

 

Wit that logic, the Yankees will win the world series every single year.

[iortiz]

Wit that logic' date=' the Yankees will win the world series every single year.[/quote']

 

How many have they won?

[a700hitter]

Dempster has a 4.04 ERA since the trade deadline' date=' and he throws in the NL Central. That equates to a 4.8-5.2 ERA in the AL East. That's hardly something that Theo should have traded for unless it was for guys who weren't going to make it past the rule 5 draft anyway (virtually the same guys that Bedard was traded for)[/quote']Dempster is not the best answer, but he is better than Wakefield and lackey this year, and I'd rather send Dempster to the hill in a big game instead of Weiland.

[Palodios]

How many have they won?

 

They put themselves in the best situation to win every single year. So do the Red Sox. But despite being the biggest spender in the MLB, how many titles have the Yankees won in the last ten years? One. A team can buy its way to the playoffs, but winning a WS is a truly rare and special thing. Do not expect your team to win it all on any given year, you are not entitled to that.

[a700hitter]

I guess I don't understand what the people who claim Theo did a poor job wanted him to do at the trade deadline.

Although I think Theo could have done more at the trading deadline (he did essentially nothing), my big complaint is that he did not build a deep roster from the beginning of the season. Wakefield was counted on as pitching depth. That is just terrible planning. He was obviously over the hill in 2010. Why would Theo expect him to improve at age 44.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dempster is not the best answer' date=' but he is better than Wakefield and lackey this year, and I'd rather send Dempster to the hill in a big game instead of Weiland.[/quote']

 

Since the Trade Deadline

 

Dempster: 4.05 ERA (NL Central)

Wakefield: 4.95 ERA (AL East)

 

Now, would he be better than Lackey? No doubt. But you have to look at the string of starts going into the deadline. Lackey was on a string of starts where he was 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Hindsight is 20/20, and when you look at career numbers, as of the trade deadline, when you saw Lackey starting to return to those career norm numbers, would you say "These past 6 starts are an aberration" or would you say "These past 6 starts look more like John Lackey".

 

Like I said, hindsight is 20/20. Theo (and almost everyone) thought that Lackey was returning to form around the deadline and that a move for Dempster after already obtaining Bedard would not be worth the prospects that it would take. The upgrade wouldn't be nearly significant enough.

[iortiz]

They put themselves in the best situation to win every single year. So do the Red Sox. But despite being the biggest spender in the MLB' date=' how many titles have the Yankees won in the last ten years? One. A team can buy its way to the playoffs, but winning a WS is a truly rare and special thing. Do not expect your team to win it all on any given year, you are not entitled to that.[/quote']

 

Got your point. Nevertheless, IMO... If this team collapse and don't make the playoffs or go early being there, he has to go, and no more excuses please. 2010 was an injury season and this is becoming likely another one... Seems like he hasn't learned; bring someone who can plan, anticipate and execute better.

[Palodios]

Although I think Theo could have done more at the trading deadline (he did essentially nothing)' date=' my big complaint is that he did not build a deep roster from the beginning of the season. Wakefield was counted on as pitching depth. That is just terrible planning. He was obviously over the hill in 2010. Why would Theo expect him to improve at age 44.[/quote']

 

I've said this countless times. You can't expect to build depth 10 men deep. This team's #2, #3, #5, and #6 all have lost significant time this season. The team's #4 completely s*** the bed. The team's #7 ended up in the bullpen because he clearly is better suited as a long man. Wakefield, Miller, and Weiland are the team's #8, #9, and #10 starters. And then Bedard slid into the middle of the rotation mid season and immediately got hurt again. You can't plan for this level of injuries, you simply cannot blame Theo for it, so get over it.

[iortiz]

Although I think Theo could have done more at the trading deadline (he did essentially nothing)' date=' my big complaint is that he did not build a deep roster from the beginning of the season. Wakefield was counted on as pitching depth. That is just terrible planning. He was obviously over the hill in 2010. [b']Why would Theo expect him to improve at age 44[/b].

 

 

Exactly.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Got your point. Nevertheless' date=' IMO... If this team collapse and don't make the playoffs or go early being there, he has to go, and no more excuses please. 2010 was an injury season and this is becoming likely another one... Seems like he hasn't learned; bring someone who can plan, anticipate and execute better.[/quote']

 

So, because the past 2 seasons, the Red Sox have had injuries, it's the GM that has to go??

 

How is the medical staff/conditioning coach not the very first to get the axe???

[Palodios]

Just to be clear, my position is that I think Theo has done a great job, but the coaching staff is incompetent. I don't meant to defend the coaches at all, I blame them for most of the problems.

[Palodios]

So, because the past 2 seasons, the Red Sox have had injuries, it's the GM that has to go??

 

How is the medical staff/conditioning coach not the very first to get the axe???

 

This.

 

I counted in a different thread somewhere else, but there have been roughly six pitchers on this team with back injuries.

[a700hitter]

Since the Trade Deadline

 

Dempster: 4.05 ERA (NL Central)

Wakefield: 4.95 ERA (AL East)

 

Now, would he be better than Lackey? No doubt. But you have to look at the string of starts going into the deadline. Lackey was on a string of starts where he was 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Hindsight is 20/20, and when you look at career numbers, as of the trade deadline, when you saw Lackey starting to return to those career norm numbers, would you say "These past 6 starts are an aberration" or would you say "These past 6 starts look more like John Lackey".

 

Like I said, hindsight is 20/20. Theo (and almost everyone) thought that Lackey was returning to form around the deadline and that a move for Dempster after already obtaining Bedard would not be worth the prospects that it would take. The upgrade wouldn't be nearly significant enough.

It's not 20/20 from me. I haven't like our pitching depth from the beginning of the year, and I have been critical of the Trading Deadline moves.

[stonedtone]

A week ago, I would've said "of course! we are not just gonna make the POs, we gonna win the Division". Today, sadly I'm not sure anymore.

 

Let's take a look...

 

RSOX (85-58; .594; projected, if we play .300 baseball: 90-72) Last ten (3-7; .300)

 

3 Games at TB

2 Games vs Toronto

4 Games vs TB

4 Games vs Baltimore

3 Games at New York

3 Games at Baltimore

 

Vs TB (5-6, .454)

Vs NY (11-4, .733)

Vs Toronto (9-7, .562)

Vs BaLtimore (8-3, .727)

 

TB (78-64; .549; projected, if they play .500 baseball: 88-74 ) Last ten (5-5; .500)

 

3 Games vs Boston

3 Games at Baltimore

4 Games at Boston

4 Games at NY

3 Games vs Toronto

3 Games vs NY

 

Vs Boston(6-5; .545)

Vs NY (5-6; .454)

Vs Toronto (10-5; .666)

Vs BaLtimore (8-7; .533)

 

The projection indicates that Boston goes to the POs; nevertheless, if Tampa plays .600 baseball and the RedSox continuos playing .300, the record will be tied and guess who goes to the POs? TB:(

 

Is it possible? Well, considering our rotation and the injuries, we definitely could finish playing .300... As a matter of fact, in September we are a .250 team after 8 games already played and 19 to be played.

 

On the other hand, TB has played .550 vs AL East and .571 in September; want it more scary? The 3 games that TB lost in September were against Texas and guess what? they won't face 'em again (4-5; .444 vs Tx), so....

 

We better recover Beckett and/or Bedard and/or our offense save our pitching ass as they've been doing all season.

 

Stack your odds Gentlemen, it isn't over, is it?

 

The Sox have a much easier schedule than Tampa Bay does. They're in

[a700hitter]

I've said this countless times. You can't expect to build depth 10 men deep. This team's #2' date=' #3, #5, and #6[/b'] all have lost significant time this season. The team's #4 completely s*** the bed. The team's #7 ended up in the bullpen because he clearly is better suited as a long man. Wakefield, Miller, and Weiland are the team's #8, #9, and #10 starters. And then Bedard slid into the middle of the rotation mid season and immediately got hurt again. You can't plan for this level of injuries, you simply cannot blame Theo for it, so get over it.

The only depth built into the pitching from the beginning was Wakefield, and that was a very poor decision. You don't have to build a 10 man staff, but you need to have some depth. If we had on more pitcher to put into the rotation who could have won one or two of these games they wouldn't be in such desperate shape. You don't need to rebuild a whole staff. You just need 1 or 2 reliable guys who can put up quality starts. Stop making excuses for them. Our injuries have not been worse than the challenges faced by the Yankees or the Rays.

[iortiz]

So, because the past 2 seasons, the Red Sox have had injuries, it's the GM that has to go??

 

How is the medical staff/conditioning coach not the very first to get the axe???

 

Sure, they have to lead off the row!

 

Seriously, We have a solid 1-3, and our 4th-10th (as Pal says ) are crap. And you just can't be that confident thinking that any of those three can get an injury or get into a deep slump (like Lackey). He should've brought a solid and fully healthy SP, was it easy? certainly nope, noboady said that, but that my friend, is his job and is what is paid for, to make that things happen using his "management" abilities.

[Palodios]

The only depth built into the pitching from the beginning was Wakefield' date=' and that was a very poor decision. You don't have to build a 10 man staff, but you need to have some depth. If we had on more pitcher to put into the rotation who could have won one or two of these games they wouldn't be in such desperate shape. You don't need to rebuild a whole staff. [b']You just need 1 or 2 reliable guys who can put up quality starts. Stop making excuses for them.[/b] Our injuries have not been worse than the challenges faced by the Yankees or the Rays.

 

Wakefield was the second starter after Doubront, who also got hurt.

 

Find me an organization that suffers injuries or ineffectiveness from four of their first five pitchers, and can survive that. Or, find me a pitcher that the Red Sox could have traded for at the deadline without completely devasting the farm system that was better than any single one of Price/Shields/Hellickson.

 

You're going to be looking for a long time.

[a700hitter]

Wakefield was the second starter after Doubront, who also got hurt.

 

Find me an organization that suffers injuries or ineffectiveness from four of their first five pitchers, and can survive that. Or, find me a pitcher that the Red Sox could have traded for at the deadline without completely devasting the farm system that was better than any single one of Price/Shields/Hellickson.

 

You're going to be looking for a long time.

There was zero depth built into the rotation--- zero. They didn't need a lot of depth here. If they miss the playoff, it willbe by one or 2 games. One good pitcher could have provided that.

 

The Rays lost their# 2 Garza and their entire bullpen to Free Agency. The rebuilt and they have depth too.

 

The Yankees had their # 2 implode and their #3 Hughes has been ineffective and/or unavailable all season. They lost Soriano foran extended period. Feliciano never pitched a game and Joba was lost for the season, so again, stop making excuses Mrs. Epstein. Your son gets a D on his report card.

[Palodios]

There was zero depth built into the rotation--- zero. They didn't need a lot of depth here. If they miss the playoff, it willbe by one or 2 games. One good pitcher could have provided that.

 

The Rays lost their# 2 Garza and their entire bullpen to Free Agency. The rebuilt and they have depth too.

 

The Yankees had their # 2 implode and their #3 Hughes has been ineffective and/or unavailable all season. They lost Soriano foran extended period. Feliciano never pitched a game and Joba was lost for the season, so again, stop making excuses Mrs. Epstein. Your son gets a D on his report card.

 

None of these situations are anywhere as deep a blow as losing 5 of your 6 best starting pitchers to injuries and ineffectiveness. There is no getting over that, no matter how good your depth is.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There was zero depth built into the rotation--- zero. They didn't need a lot of depth here. If they miss the playoff, it willbe by one or 2 games. One good pitcher could have provided that.

 

The Rays lost their# 2 Garza and their entire bullpen to Free Agency. The rebuilt and they have depth too.

The Yankees had their # 2 implode and their #3 Hughes has been ineffective and/or unavailable all season. They lost Soriano foran extended period. Feliciano never pitched a game and Joba was lost for the season, so again, stop making excuses Mrs. Epstein. Your son gets a D on his report card.

 

Do you know how many pitchers the Rays have had start games this year? 7. SEVEN. That's an absurdly low number. They have faced basically zero injury, and their farm system is closer to the MLB level, so they can call up Alex Cobb and get a good start out of it. You know what their 7th starter did in his 4 starts? Posted a 7.85 ERA. So that's a horseshit argument. They have just as little depth as the Red Sox in the SP position, but their starters have gone out there every 5th day.

 

The Red Sox have had TEN starters, and obviously numbers 6-10 are all progressively worse and worse. You can't expect to have a #8 or #9 man to come out and give you QS after QS.

 

Who do you want to pick up that is going to post a 4.50 ERA or lower and be out there every 5th game, but is going to agree to a MiLB deal where he's 8th or 9th on the depth chart?? It's not out there.

[iortiz]

Wakefield was the second starter after Doubront, who also got hurt.

 

Find me an organization that suffers injuries or ineffectiveness from four of their first five pitchers, and can survive that. Or, find me a pitcher that the Red Sox could have traded for at the deadline without completely devasting the farm system that was better than any single one of Price/Shields/Hellickson.

 

You're going to be looking for a long time.

 

This!

 

He should anticipate that. And certainly, he didn't.

 

It's funny and at the same time encouraging how you rate our farm, just as if we had the ultimate promising full of prospects ever and certainly we are not even close to have that at this point. Jimenez was there and we could push harder for Kuroda or someone... but again, that is exactly Theo's damn job, Anticipate and Forecast bringing the right pieces in order to be covered for a sudden eventuality like this.

 

BTW why you always try to compare the options with another teams' pitchers? We just needed a #3-#4 FULLY HEALTHY PITCHER, that's it, and Bedard certainly ain't the answer for our reality (present tense), and please no more "if he is healthy" cause he isn't.

[Palodios]

It's funny and at the same time encouraging how you rate our farm' date=' just as if we had the ultimate promising full of prospects ever and certainly we are not even close to have that at this point. Jimenez was there and we could push harder for Kuroda or someone... but again, that is exactly Theo's damn job, Anticipate and Forecast bringing the right pieces in order to be covered for a sudden eventuality like this.[/quote']

 

Going after Jimeniz would have been a huge mistake, and Theo knew it-- Even if you guys believe in having zero farm and just using prospects for trade chips.... those trade chips could be used in considerably better deals down the road (remember last year when everyone was clamoring for trades mid-2010, and Theo had just been saving his cards for gonzo?) Kuroda blatantly said he would not accept a trade, because of his no-trade clause. You guys keep talking like there were so many great options, but there simply weren't any.

[iortiz]

BTW...

 

The best managers are who plan, forecast and anticipate better = predict better the future and deliver better results with the resouses and budget available.

 

This is not Theo's case, at least last season and 2011? We'll see. Look at NY or TB, they are covered somehow...the rich one is deploying behind of tons of money (like us) and didn't even make a move before the trade deadline because they thought that planned just well since the beginning ... and the other? has been working its farm system very nice.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Going after Jimeniz would have been a huge mistake' date=' and Theo knew it-- Even if you guys believe in having zero farm and just using prospects for trade chips.... those trade chips could be used in considerably better deals down the road (remember last year when everyone was clamoring for trades mid-2010, and Theo had just been saving his cards for gonzo?) Kuroda blatantly said he would not accept a trade, because of his no-trade clause.[b'] You guys keep talking like there were so many great options, but there simply weren't any.[/b]

 

Exactly. I'm not sure who everyone wishes we should have gone after at the deadline. The market was extremely bare. Ubaldo was available, but what the Guardians gave up for him trumped anything the Sox could have offered.

 

The only guy I think the Sox should have gone after is Fister, but I think the Tigers overpaid for him anyways, so again, unless you want to completely overpay for a player, you're probably better off making a small move, getting yourself to the PS, and then using your 1-2-3 there. I still think Beckett - Lester - Bedard will be good for 2/3 in any series, even the Phillies.