Couple of thoughts generated on "The Baseball Reporters"

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

But how do we know for certain after one terrific season that Ellsbury is an every day star? That's part of the question too. He's made great strides this year and is an exciting player, but I think an elite SP could potentially be a more important pieces of the championship puzzle.

 

It won't happen, but fun to think about.

[a700hitter]

But how do we know for certain after one terrific season that Ellsbury is an every day star? That's part of the question too. He's made great strides this year and is an exciting player, but I think an elite SP could potentially be a more important pieces of the championship puzzle.

 

It won't happen, but fun to think about.

Before this season it ws known that he had great ability. This season he proved that he can execute consistently at a very high level. Can he be consistent from year to year? The Sox have an arbitration year to find out.

[Palodios]

Before this season it ws known that he had great ability. This season he proved that he can execute consistently at a very high level. Can he be consistent from year to year? The Sox have an arbitration year to find out.

 

This is bad logic. They have time to figure it out? There are two possible scenarios:

 

1) He continues at this level, and they probably won't pay him the 160 million in 2013.

 

2) He regresses, and the Sox can afford to resign him, but he is nowhere as good, and his

trade value drops substantially.

 

Between 2005 and 2010, Ellsbury hit 30 home runs between the minor leagues in the major leagues total. That's it. Six years, he hits 30 home runs, and now he's on pace for 30 this year, and everyone thinks he's going to do it for years to come.

[a700hitter]

This is bad logic. They have time to figure it out? There are two possible scenarios:

 

1) He continues at this level, and they probably won't pay him the 160 million in 2013.

 

2) He regresses, and the Sox can afford to resign him, but he is nowhere as good, and his

trade value drops substantially.

 

Between 2005 and 2010, Ellsbury hit 30 home runs between the minor leagues in the major leagues total. That's it. Six years, he hits 30 home runs, and now he's on pace for 30 this year, and everyone thinks he's going to do it for years to come.

I am not asserting that they have time to figure it out, nor I am I in agreement that if he continues to perform at this level that they will not sign him long term. Quite the contrary. I think he is a star and that this is his breakout season. Further, I think they will sign him when he is eligible for Free Agency. They do have one more year of arbitration before they have to commit long term money to him. I would use the safety net of arbitration, because I am averse to long term deals. That being said, I think Ellsbury is a star, and I would never trade an every day star player for any pitcher.

[mvp 78]

Why can't they pay him? They're the f'n Red Sox and have an enormous payroll. If he's a 20M player, they'll pay him. It'd be dumb not to.

[ORS]

This is bad logic. They have time to figure it out? There are two possible scenarios:

 

1) He continues at this level, and they probably won't pay him the 160 million in 2013.

 

2) He regresses, and the Sox can afford to resign him, but he is nowhere as good, and his

trade value drops substantially.

 

Between 2005 and 2010, Ellsbury hit 30 home runs between the minor leagues in the major leagues total. That's it. Six years, he hits 30 home runs, and now he's on pace for 30 this year, and everyone thinks he's going to do it for years to come.

Players find their power stroke. It happens. You act like this is some bizarre occurence. It happened with Youkilis, it happens with plenty of others. They grow into their bodies, they adjust their swings, etc.

 

Did you read the article about his change in approach this year? Apparently, he had this power stroke in previous years, it was his natural swing the coaching staff thought, and it showed up for batting practice. In games, though, he flatten out his swing and use was he was taught during his baseball upbringing so he could use his speed to get on. The coaching staff has been trying to get him to use his batting practice swing in games for quite some time. Sometimes an adjustment like that takes time.

 

Furthermore, he's still a star, with his speed making his baserunning and fielding so valuable, even if he isn't a perennial 30+ HR player. The thought all along by the baseball development people was that he'd be a 20+ guy with all those other tools. I'm perfectly fine holding on to that.

[Emmz]

Joe Mauer needs to find a power stroke. Seriously, he's huge, yet he hits like 10 homers per year except for the one outlier, he looks like he could slug like 30 homers per year, he needs to. I got my hopes up that one year, granted I didn't expect him to keep hitting like .400 for most of the year or anything like that, but still, look at him, he's a beast. Hit more homers and get injured less.

 

As for Ells, I'd like to say it's going to be a regular occurrence from now on that he puts up power numbers to compliment his other skill set, I'd be satisfied if he even put up 20 homers next year, but I got to see it again before I believe it's the real deal.

[TheMeanWalrus]

As much as Adrian Gonzalez has done this year, Ellsbury has been the anchor in that line-up.

By solidifying the leadoff spot, Francona has enormous flexibility with the rest of the lineup

[Emmz]

He has, but Gonzo has the glam stats that will give him the MVP most likely. If he has a .340 BA with near the top RBIs and 25 or so homers, he will get it IMO.

 

The voters really like RBIs homers and BA, which is unfortunate because those stats are pretty useless, really.

[Palodios]

Players find their power stroke. It happens. You act like this is some bizarre occurence. It happened with Youkilis, it happens with plenty of others. They grow into their bodies, they adjust their swings, etc.

 

Did you read the article about his change in approach this year? Apparently, he had this power stroke in previous years, it was his natural swing the coaching staff thought, and it showed up for batting practice. In games, though, he flatten out his swing and use was he was taught during his baseball upbringing so he could use his speed to get on. The coaching staff has been trying to get him to use his batting practice swing in games for quite some time. Sometimes an adjustment like that takes time.

 

Furthermore, he's still a star, with his speed making his baserunning and fielding so valuable, even if he isn't a perennial 30+ HR player. The thought all along by the baseball development people was that he'd be a 20+ guy with all those other tools. I'm perfectly fine holding on to that.

 

I have no trouble imagining him as a 15 home run guy who may hit 20 in a good year. But I'm a little skeptical of him repeating this year. If he does, awesome, but I am worried about committing a monster Crawford type deal to him.

[ORS]

Joe Mauer needs to find a power stroke. Seriously, he's huge, yet he hits like 10 homers per year except for the one outlier, he looks like he could slug like 30 homers per year, he needs to. I got my hopes up that one year, granted I didn't expect him to keep hitting like .400 for most of the year or anything like that, but still, look at him, he's a beast. Hit more homers and get injured less.

 

As for Ells, I'd like to say it's going to be a regular occurrence from now on that he puts up power numbers to compliment his other skill set, I'd be satisfied if he even put up 20 homers next year, but I got to see it again before I believe it's the real deal.

 

That's the beauty of the timing I mentioned. They can wait to see it again, to see if he can do it two years in a row, before committing.

[example1]

I have no problem investing in Ellsbury, I've always been a huge fan of his (since before he was drafted when he played at Oregon State). I also don't think the power surge is a fluke. He's one of the world's best athletes. That his hand-eye coordination would finally come together is not shocking. Nor is his increased ability to work a walk.

 

I just don't necessarily believe that a hard-and-fast rule about never trading a very good regular for a pitcher makes sense. Ellsbury may be a "star" but so is Crawford, so is Pedroia, Gonzo, possibly even Youkilis. I think the scarcity of an offensive star vs. the limits of a 5 man pitching rotation presents soem challenges to that hard-and-fast rule, but that's just me. Probably not worth arguing about indefinitely. I would feel pretty confident about this team having Felix and Lester pitch 4 games in a 7 game series, or having Felix pitching the deciding game of a WS game and there aren't many pitchers I would say that about.

[a700hitter]

I just don't necessarily believe that a hard-and-fast rule about never trading a very good regular for a pitcher makes sense. Ellsbury may be a "star" but so is Crawford' date=' so is Pedroia, Gonzo, possibly even Youkilis. I think the scarcity of an offensive star vs. the limits of a 5 man pitching rotation presents soem challenges to that hard-and-fast rule, but that's just me. Probably not worth arguing about indefinitely. I would feel pretty confident about this team having Felix and Lester pitch 4 games in a 7 game series, or having Felix pitching the deciding game of a WS game and there aren't many pitchers I would say that about.[/quote']You don't see it happen very much at all.

[BornToRun]

Bottom line is, for me at least, if he continues to play like this, you pay the man, you pay him whatever he wants.

[Rosey]

Bottom line is' date=' for me at least, if he continues to play like this, you pay the man, you pay him whatever he wants.[/quote']

 

I'm with you on this. And yes, they have the money!

[Jwmann2]

While the Red Sox do need an ace, Ellsbury has been on fire this year. He is def going to request a lot in arbitration. Just afraid of doing the reverse of a Wily Mo/Bronson trade all over again.

[BornToRun]

How do we need an ace when we have Lester, Buch, and Beckett?

[Palodios]

How do we need an ace when we have Lester' date=' Buch, and Beckett?[/quote']

 

When was the last time all three had good seasons in the same year?

[BornToRun]

Well we had two last year and Beckett has actually turned into a pitcher now. An ace'd be nice but I don't think we "need" one.

[Palodios]

But that's my point. Get four aces, and one will be on the DL at any given time. If they're all healthy? That's unexpected, but its a win.

[BornToRun]

That's true. But do you deal a guy like Ellsbury, if he continues to play this way, for something that's more of a luxury than a need?