Theo's Free Agent Booms and Busts

[Emmz]

AAV of $23.33mm will justify his contract. Take this year and combine it with his past 2 years and he's had an AAV of 18.9mm' date=' just 1.1mm under his contract amount, and he's having an absolutely horrid year, so I don't see how he can't perform to his prior years levels during the rest of his peak years, which are still in front of him[/quote']

 

He still has work to do, and JD Drew is barely off his contract, but yet he's a "bust". I'm going by Palo's logic.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, because that's not just lying. JD Drew was a productive player, a good outfielder and offensive weapon for most of his contract. His simple stats, for people who don't understand sabermetrics, show this as well. Just because he's not tuff like you'd like him to be, does not mean he's not valuable, because WAR takes that into account.

 

I can't imagine how good his WAR would be if he played 150 games a season, but hey, he barely missed his contract, which is not a bust to me. Carl Crawford, however, has a lot of work to do to make up for the value of his contract. You people can't pick and choose when to not apply WAR.

Not a bust, but an under performer. Couldn't resist an anti-Obama line.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah, because that's not just lying. JD Drew was a productive player, a good outfielder and offensive weapon for most of his contract. His simple stats, for people who don't understand sabermetrics, show this as well. Just because he's not tuff like you'd like him to be, does not mean he's not valuable, because WAR takes that into account.

 

I can't imagine how good his WAR would be if he played 150 games a season, but hey, he barely missed his contract, which is not a bust to me. Carl Crawford, however, has a lot of work to do to make up for the value of his contract. You people can't pick and choose when to not apply WAR.

 

JD Drew only provided $14mm of value in 2 of his 5 seasons in Boston. He had an average value of $11.7mm (right now, future performances pending, but it will almost certainly be below 12mm), so how is his contract not considered a bust? Because he outperformed his contract in 40% of his seasons, but underperformed in 60%?

[SoxFanForsyth]

He still has work to do' date=' and JD Drew is barely off his contract, but yet he's a "bust". I'm going by Palo's logic.[/quote']

 

No question about it, he's got an uphill battle to justify his contract, but I think Crawford has the ability. Also, I think that UZR for left fielders is suppressed because of the dimensions, so his WAR is going to be lower, which results in lower value. Clearly, that's not any justification for his low performance this year, but in the future it could be something to consider when reviewing his contract vs value added.

[Emmz]

I'm not saying Crawford isn't a bust. I'm saying we do not have enough information to call him a bust.

 

Being a million or so short of your contract isn't a bust, being multi-millions, 10-20 or more away from it in value is being a bust. JD Drew just missed his contract in WAR, which is pretty good, especially considering his value was distributed well between his fielding and his offense.

[Emmz]

JD Drew only provided $14mm of value in 2 of his 5 seasons in Boston. He had an average value of $11.7mm (right now' date=' future performances pending, but it will almost certainly be below 12mm), so how is his contract not considered a bust? Because he outperformed his contract in 40% of his seasons, but underperformed in 60%?[/quote']

 

Being 2m off is not a bust, it's barely missing your contract your hypocrite. If you're going to sit and defend Crawford, then you ought to quiet down about Drew.

 

So far, Crawford is in the hole by almost all the money he's made this year. There's a strong possibility he misses his contract value by a little bit at least.

[Emmz]

No question about it' date=' he's got an uphill battle to justify his contract, but I think Crawford has the ability. Also, I think that UZR for left fielders is suppressed because of the dimensions, so his WAR is going to be lower, which results in lower value. Clearly, that's not any justification for his low performance this year, but in the future it could be something to consider when reviewing his contract vs value added.[/quote']

 

He will have to have 2006-2010 averages every year to come close to his contract.

 

If he's 2m off, is he a bust to you? I wouldn't say so, I wouldn't even care if he were 5m off, if he was close enough, he's not a bust.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Being a million or so short of your contract isn't a bust' date=' being multi-millions, 10-20 or more away from it in value is being a bust. JD Drew just missed his contract in WAR, which is pretty good, especially considering his value was distributed well between his fielding and his offense.[/quote']

 

Well, here's the thing. At an AAV of $11.7mm, he was worth 83.5% of his contract. He was around 11.5mm short on his total contract. So it's not just $2.5mm, it's 2.5mm per season over 5 seasons. It's misleading to say that it's a million or so short of your contract, because over the course of 5 years, that adds up.

 

If Carl performs to 83.5% of his contract, he will be $23,500,000 short of his contract, but I'm sure everyone will consider him a huge bust. So what's the difference? That's my argument. If Crawford performs to $117.5mm (AAV of 19.5mm) of value over the next 6 years, he will have justified his contract just as much as Drew.

[Emmz]

Not a bust' date=' but an under performer. Couldn't resist an anti-Obama line. [/quote']

 

I'm satisfied that he's close to his yearly average, two of which years he was worth well above his yearly average in value.

[Emmz]

Well' date=' here's the thing. At an AAV of $11.7mm, he was worth 83.5% of his contract. He was around 11.5mm short on his total contract. If Carl performs to 83.5% of his contract, he will be $23,500,000 short of his contract, but I'm sure everyone will consider him a huge bust. So what's the difference? That's my argument. If Crawford performs to $117.5mm (AAV of 19.5mm) of value over the next 6 years, he will have justified his contract just as much as Drew.[/quote']

 

Not really, if you were worth roughly 85% of your contract, you were just about worth it, and a lot of people would call it a wash. Busting is more like Barry Zito or Vernon Wells type stuff. Drew was worth 85%, that's pretty good to me.

 

I don't see how Crawford would be a bust just because of the larger volume, he's still close enough.

[redsoxrules]

Well, here's the thing. At an AAV of $11.7mm, he was worth 83.5% of his contract. He was around 11.5mm short on his total contract. So it's not just $2.5mm, it's 2.5mm per season over 5 seasons. It's misleading to say that it's a million or so short of your contract, because over the course of 5 years, that adds up.

 

If Carl performs to 83.5% of his contract, he will be $23,500,000 short of his contract, but I'm sure everyone will consider him a huge bust. So what's the difference? That's my argument. If Crawford performs to $117.5mm (AAV of 19.5mm) of value over the next 6 years, he will have justified his contract just as much as Drew.

 

Nope, I'd be excited if he does so, because his value is 1MIL so far this year witch means he would average 19 MIL for the next 6 years . I could certainly deal with that

[AtWork]

Joel Pineiro was also a pretty big bust. Anyone else remember when he was supposed to be our closer?

[d-money]

Crawford is having a crappy year.I wouldnt call him a bust yet.If he does this the next 2 years then yes he is a bust.

[a700hitter]

So far we have come up with lots of failures that are not disputed, the Drew case which probably falls in the under-perform category, but not a bust, and a couple of yet to be determineds (Jenks and Crawford). I've only seen 1 big money free agent success story- Beltre. It seems like a bad track record.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So far we have come up with lots of failures that are not disputed' date=' the Drew case which probably falls in the under-perform category, but not a bust, and a couple of yet to be determineds (Jenks and Crawford). I've only seen 1 big money free agent success story- Beltre. It seems like a bad track record.[/quote']

 

Well if we're going to be fair, his lack of FA signing has been completely overcome by his brilliance in drafting, trades, and locking up young players long term to crazy team friendly deals.

 

I mean look at our team. Going around the diamond, you've got Salty (traded for at extremely low value, giving above average catching), Gonzo (big trade), Pedroia (draft, locked up team friendly), Scutaro (average SS for average $$), Youk (draft, locked up team friendly), Crawford (TBD), Ellsbury (draft), Reddick (draft)/Drew (underperforming, not a bust).

 

Our rotation: Beckett (trade), Lester (draft), Buchholz (draft), Lackey (bust thus far), Bedard (trade), DiceK (bust)

 

We're running a WS caliber team out there every single night, and it's because Theo drafts well and signs his young players to team friendly contracts, which absorbs the blow of the busted contracts (DiceK, Lackey).

 

To me, Theo's drafting, extending young players to team friendly deals, and trades (I know Beckett/Lowell was done when Theo was on his hiatus), completely outweigh his botched FA signings, and it's probably because he prefers drafting and trades to FA signings, so we see a lot more talent come in during prime years, at team friendly deals which keeps this team competitive year after year.

[a700hitter]

Well if we're going to be fair, his lack of FA signing has been completely overcome by his brilliance in drafting, trades, and locking up young players long term to crazy team friendly deals.

 

I mean look at our team. Going around the diamond, you've got Salty (traded for at extremely low value, giving above average catching), Gonzo (big trade), Pedroia (draft, locked up team friendly), Scutaro (average SS for average $$), Youk (draft, locked up team friendly), Crawford (TBD), Ellsbury (draft), Reddick (draft)/Drew (under performing, not a bust).

 

Our rotation: Beckett (trade), Lester (draft), Buchholz (draft), Lackey (bust thus far), Bedard (trade), DiceK (bust)

 

We're running a WS caliber team out there every single night, and it's because Theo drafts well and signs his young players to team friendly contracts, which absorbs the blow of the busted contracts (DiceK, Lackey).

 

To me, Theo's drafting, extending young players to team friendly deals, and trades (I know Beckett/Lowell was done when Theo was on his hiatus), completely outweigh his botched FA signings, and it's probably because he prefers drafting and trades to FA signings, so we see a lot more talent come in during prime years, at team friendly deals which keeps this team competitive year after year.

No one is arguing those points. The thread was about his record in signing big money free agents. It is not a referendum on whether he is a good GM overall. His record with FA signings is very unimpressive.

[AtWork]

If you ignore the signings of Ortiz, Mueller, Beltre, Millar, Arroyo, Timlin, etc. then yes, he only has a history of free agent failures.

[SoxSport]

The FA record isn't very good. You wonder why they do it. Well, they are doomed to keeping up with the Yankees. That's why. The Rat Race.

[example1]

No one is arguing those points. The thread was about his record in signing big money free agents. It is not a referendum on whether he is a good GM overall. His record with FA signings is very unimpressive.

 

Probably a solid reason for us to not demand that he sign every big FA that is out there moving forward, no?

 

I can't think of too many FAs who have been worth a lot more than their contract over the past few years. I'm sure there are some, but I can't think of them... Teixeira... ummm.... Cliff Lee, maybe... others?

 

There's a reason that Theo likes to develop from within and trade prospects for established players. Much, much less risk.

[a700hitter]

Probably a solid reason for us to not demand that he sign every big FA that is out there moving forward, no?

 

I can't think of too many FAs who have been worth a lot more than their contract over the past few years. I'm sure there are some, but I can't think of them... Teixeira... ummm.... Cliff Lee, maybe... others?

 

There's a reason that Theo likes to develop from within and trade prospects for established players. Much, much less risk.

I think Theo signs FA's in an attempt to keep up with the Yankees and not to respond to the demands of the fans. As much as I would like to think that he responded to my daily memos asking him to sign Crawford, I don't think that was the deciding factor.

 

As far as FA's that have done pretty well in recent years, off the top of my head I would say Sabathia, Damon (twice - once for the Sox and once for the Yanks), Holliday, Beltran (3 very good years out of 5), Hideki Matsui. I am sure that there are others. I very much wanted Holliday in 2010, but he took a pass.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can't get blame Theo for signing Crawford, I loved the signing at the time, and I still think he's an elite player. I'm not sure where Carl Crawford is, I think Carl and Glenn Davis need to find themselves, but when Crawford gets his swing back, he's a game changer. And if we can get him to figure it out by the post season, he's going to be a huge addition.

[example1]

I think Theo signs FA's in an attempt to keep up with the Yankees and not to respond to the demands of the fans. As much as I would like to think that he responded to my daily memos asking him to sign Crawford' date=' I don't think that was the deciding factor. [/quote']

 

I don't either. I do think that they responded to the reduced viewership last year and made some big splashes to bring excitement back up. Crawford was a big part of that.

 

As far as FA's that have done pretty well in recent years, off the top of my head I would say Sabathia, Damon (twice - once for the Sox and once for the Yanks), Holliday, Beltran (3 very good years out of 5), Hideki Matsui. I am sure that there are others. I very much wanted Holliday in 2010, but he took a pass.

 

Sabathia, definitely. Damon, probably but he would have been another LH OF on a team with too many of them. Holliday--you probably remember that I wanted them to sign him too and would have prefered that this lineup have Holliday playing LF over Crawford. Matsui, meh.

 

Even that list is pretty unimpressive after Sabathia and Holliday if you ask me. I tink it is safe to say that most high priced FAs don't end up being great investments.

[Palodios]

I think there are certain can't-miss players that are absolutely worth the price. The problem is, those guys are usually locked up by their own teams, or looking for outrageous numbers. The only reason why certain FAs are let go is if their team sees a hole in their game.

 

Look at some of the big FA signings of 2011/2010:

Victor Martinez (no glove)

Adam Dunn (strikeout machine)

Crawford (the Rays did want him, but turf/terrible lefty splits were big holes)

Werth (injuries, late bloomer)

Jason Bay (injury concerns)

John Lackey (enough said)

Beltre (inconsistent offense)

 

Cliff Lee and Holliday were the can't miss players, and I think we all saw it at the time and knew it. And the kicker was, they weren't that much more expensive than Lackey/Crawford.

[a700hitter]

I don't either. I do think that they responded to the reduced viewership last year and made some big splashes to bring excitement back up. Crawford was a big part of that.

They did it because they thought Crawford would be an exciting player, not because the fans demanded it. We loved Pedro and they let him walk. They don't make moves they don't believe in because the fans clamor for it. They believe in Crawford.

 

 

 

Sabathia, definitely. Damon, probably but he would have been another LH OF on a team with too many of them. Holliday--you probably remember that I wanted them to sign him too and would have prefered that this lineup have Holliday playing LF over Crawford. Matsui, meh.

 

Even that list is pretty unimpressive after Sabathia and Holliday if you ask me. I tink it is safe to say that most high priced FAs don't end up being great investments.

The big money FA's that are good investments are retained by their teams and a lot have gone the trade and sign route. Many trade and signs have done very well. As I said that is not an exhaustive list. It was a top of the head list, because I didn't have the time.

 

Matsui... Meh? He put up some consistently excellent numbers

[example1]

Matsui is old, left handed and not a particularly good fielder. That gets a meh from me.

[ORS]

I'm pretty sure he's talking about Matsui as a Yankee FA signing when he came over from Japan. That Matsui was pretty good for the duration of his contract.

 

The one I think it's funny to see is Beltran on the good list, especially in light of the previous Drew commentary. Very similar contract/value situations, to me. Both were overpaid for more years than they provided above contract value production over the duration of their contracts (2 of 5 good years for Drew, 3 of 7 for Beltran). Also, Beltran came closer to his whole contract value because when he was better he was much better, whereas Drew, both above and below the contract value, had less variance.

[BossSox]

Good

David Ortiz

Bill Mueller

JD Drew

Adrian Beltre

Mike Timlin

Gabe Kapler

Kevin Millar (does that count as a free agent or is that considered a trade for cash considerations?)

 

Bad

Julio Lugo

Matt Clement

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brad Penny

Ramiro Mendoza

Rudy Seanez

Switch Mendoza and Drew in my opinion.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

ALan Embree?

[example1]

I'm pretty sure he's talking about Matsui as a Yankee FA signing when he came over from Japan. That Matsui was pretty good for the duration of his contract.

 

If that's the case, then we're talking about a list of maybe 6 guys over the last, what, 7 years? I think it supports my point. There's plenty of overpays during that time and many teams regretting their signings at this point (Sox included, I think).

[Eck20and8]

The more money he's given, the worse Theo does.

 

Does OK scouring around for undervalued guys or making trades, but the man is dangerous when allowed to write big checks.