2012 Financials

[Palodios]

You're actling like we're in depserate need of a 4th ace when all we need is a 5th starter. We'll be fine.

 

Just because this team has three guys with ace potential doesn't make them aces. There is one legitimate ace on this team, plus Beckett who is incredibly inconsistent, and Buchholz, who has exactly one great season in his career.

 

I see no problem trading a guy like Ellsbury who is going to be gone in two years for potentially a career of an elite talent like Felix who is 25 years old, and will be a 300 game winner if he stays with the Red Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

For a team like Seattle who will be rebuilding, getting 2 yrs of high prices out of Ellsbury isnt really gonna work. Ells will have serious trade value if the sox shop him, but not to rebuilding clubs

[SoxFanForsyth]

For a team like Seattle who will be rebuilding' date=' getting 2 yrs of high prices out of Ellsbury isnt really gonna work. Ells will have serious trade value if the sox shop him, but not to rebuilding clubs[/quote']

 

Read older posts: 3 way trade discussed. This point was brought up earlier.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah, missed that, my bad

[AtWork]

Just because this team has three guys with ace potential doesn't make them aces. There is one legitimate ace on this team, plus Beckett who is incredibly inconsistent, and Buchholz, who has exactly one great season in his career.

 

I see no problem trading a guy like Ellsbury who is going to be gone in two years for potentially a career of an elite talent like Felix who is 25 years old, and will be a 300 game winner if he stays with the Red Sox.

 

Why do you keep insisting that Ellsbury will leave when he hits free agency? We're the favorites to re-sign him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Like Jackson pointed out, it's not happening. Ellsbury's set to make $8-10 million next year in arbitration and even more the next year and then he's a free agent.

 

And why do you keep insisting that Ellsbury will leave when he hits free agency? We're the favorites to re-sign him.

 

If he plays out of his mind the next 2 seasons, what are the chances the sox have 3 offensive players making over $20 mil a season? Then you have to factor in Pedroia being an FA after 2015 and Lester being an FA after 2014. The sox team is young and talented, but Theo can put a roster together because he's been shrewd with his extensions. Once those extensions come due, the sox are either going to have to go into the Yankee stratosphere in terms of salary or make some hard decisions. I honestly think the sox signed Crawford with an eye towards Ells walking in 2 yrs and Kalish taking over in CF

[Palodios]

Why do you keep insisting that Ellsbury will leave when he hits free agency? We're the favorites to re-sign him.

 

If he were to hit free agency right now, he'd be worth 200 million. Compare his season to Crawford's 2010-- higher OBP, less strikeouts, quite a few more HR, more steals now, defense is probably a wash since Crawford plays a corner, even splits, hasn't played on turf.

 

The Sox will not pay him that much.

[AtWork]

If he plays out of his mind the next 2 seasons' date=' what are the chances the sox have 3 offensive players making over $20 mil a season? Then you have to factor in Pedroia being an FA after 2015 and Lester being an FA after 2014. The sox team is young and talented, but Theo can put a roster together because he's been shrewd with his extensions. Once those extensions come due, the sox are either going to have to go into the Yankee stratosphere in terms of salary or make some hard decisions. I honestly think the sox signed Crawford with an eye towards Ells walking in 2 yrs and Kalish taking over in CF[/quote']

 

Is there a legitmate reason why we couldn't have 3 players making $20 million a year? In two years the luxury tax threshold will be nearly $200 million.

[AtWork]

If he were to hit free agency right now, he'd be worth 200 million. Compare his season to Crawford's 2010-- higher OBP, less strikeouts, quite a few more HR, more steals now, defense is probably a wash since Crawford plays a corner, even splits, hasn't played on turf.

 

The Sox will not pay him that much.

 

Why not?

[Palodios]

Why not?

 

Would you like a list of the players that the Red Sox have let walk when the contract got out of hand? This organization makes those hard decisions. When Ellsbury's legs go, he's half the player he is now, and you think they'd want to sign him till he's 39?

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem is, you'll be resigning players every season for the next 2-3 yrs to $20 mil plus contracts. Look at this....

 

Youkilis' contract runs through 2012. He has a $13 mil option for 2013. He'll be 35 as a FA

Lester's contract runs through 2013. He has a $14 mil option for 2014. He'll be 30 as a FA

Pedroia's contract runs through 2014. He has an $11 million option for 2015. He'll be 32 as a FA

Buchholz' contract runs through 2015. He has a $13 mil option for 2016 and a $13.5 mil option for 2017. He'll be 32 as a FA

 

Crawford's contract runs through 2017. AdGon's runs through 2018. Youkilis likely wont be going anywhere for more money as a 35 yr old, but Lester, Pedroia, and Buchholz all have one more big contract ahead of them. And if they perform like they have over the last 1.5 seasons, they'll all get $20 mil per yr contracts. Lets assume the sox resign everyone and all players play to their capabilities and sign a market deal. By 2017, they will have Crawford, Lester, AdGon, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Buchholz all over $20 million. That isnt the kind of flexibility that Theo seems to like.

[jacksonianmarch]

And, the sox have a kid in the minors who they think can handle the big stage in CF. Theo has never been one to shy away from change, and if he thinks he could use that $20 mil per season elsewhere, then he will. Also, I am using the term $20 mil loosely. If Ellsbury hits 25HR, steals 50 bases, and hits over .300 for the next 2 seasons, he will get a lot more than $20 mil per season. Remember who represents him

[Station 13]

If he were to hit free agency right now, he'd be worth 200 million. Compare his season to Crawford's 2010-- higher OBP, less strikeouts, quite a few more HR, more steals now, defense is probably a wash since Crawford plays a corner, even splits, hasn't played on turf.

 

The Sox will not pay him that much.

 

Nobody is giving Ells a $200 m contract. Nobody. The Cards are having a fit giving that to Pujols.

 

He would get a crawford contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nobody is giving Ells a $200 contract. Nobody. The Cards are having a fit giving that to Pujols.

 

He would get a crawford contract.

 

He's better than Crawford ever was and he has Boras representing him. You really think he's going to settle for something like that?

[Station 13]

He's better than Crawford ever was and he has Boras representing him. You really think he's going to settle for something like that?

 

Crawford got overpaid. I'm not sure if anyone will for Ells.

 

Holliday got less than what Boras wanted. The Sox should have pick him up instead.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The problem is, you'll be resigning players every season for the next 2-3 yrs to $20 mil plus contracts. Look at this....

 

Youkilis' contract runs through 2012. He has a $13 mil option for 2013. He'll be 35 as a FA

Lester's contract runs through 2013. He has a $14 mil option for 2014. He'll be 30 as a FA

Pedroia's contract runs through 2014. He has an $11 million option for 2015. He'll be 32 as a FA

Buchholz' contract runs through 2015. He has a $13 mil option for 2016 and a $13.5 mil option for 2017. He'll be 32 as a FA

 

Crawford's contract runs through 2017. AdGon's runs through 2018. Youkilis likely wont be going anywhere for more money as a 35 yr old, but Lester, Pedroia, and Buchholz all have one more big contract ahead of them. And if they perform like they have over the last 1.5 seasons, they'll all get $20 mil per yr contracts. Lets assume the sox resign everyone and all players play to their capabilities and sign a market deal. By 2017, they will have Crawford, Lester, AdGon, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Buchholz all over $20 million. That isnt the kind of flexibility that Theo seems to like.

 

By 2017? Really? First off, Pedroia won't get $20mm a year. He'll get around $14-16mm a year. Lester will get his 5/$100mm.

 

I don't know where you get these numbers, but the Sox don't overpay like the Yankees (Jeter, ARod, Mo). They pay market value.

 

The Sox will resign Lester and Pedroia, that's about it. They won't give Buch 5 years at 32 years old, which he will get elsewhere, and the Sox will let him walk.

 

Theo will have Gonzo, Crawford, Lester, and Pedroia locked up for $15-20mm per season. How is that much different than next year with Gonzo, Crawford, Beckett, and Lackey?

 

You're kind of a drama queen.

[AtWork]

Would you like a list of the players that the Red Sox have let walk when the contract got out of hand? This organization makes those hard decisions. When Ellsbury's legs go' date=' he's half the player he is now, and you think they'd want to sign him till he's 39?[/quote']

 

Would you like the list of $20 million players the Red Sox have signed in the last 10 months? The fact that a lot of his value is from his speed didn't seem to stop them from signing Crawford.

[AtWork]

The problem is' date=' you'll be resigning players every season for the next 2-3 yrs to $20 mil plus contracts. Look at this....[/quote']

 

 

I won't waste my time reading on.

[Palodios]

Nobody is giving Ells a $200 m contract. Nobody. The Cards are having a fit giving that to Pujols.

 

He would get a crawford contract.

 

The Cards are having a fit giving 300 million to Pujols. There is a big difference there. Ellsbury is better than Crawford was last year in several different ways, plus he has Boras, and we'd be looking at two years later in an OF starved market. 200 million is not completely out of the question.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's better than Crawford ever was and he has Boras representing him. You really think he's going to settle for something like that?

 

See here's the problem. There have to be other people willing to pay more than the Red Sox. If the Yankees want to give him 10/200mm and have him from the age of 31-41, go right ahead, but I'm fairly certain they learned their lesson with ARod.

 

The Sox will give him 6/120 or something around there. And to be honest with you, who is going to pay him more than that? The Angels? They lowballed Crawford at 6/108. The Yankees? They'll drive the price up, and if they want him through 38 at $20mm a year, have at him. 6/120 is the most that makes sense, and Theo has shown multiple times that he doesn't like signing a guy to a contract past 35 or 36. He may bump the AAV, but not the years.

[AtWork]

You're kind of a drama queen.

 

That's the most spot on comment in this thread.

[Palodios]

 

I won't waste my time reading on.

 

I wouldn't disregard that post. It is usual Sox-pesimistic Jacko, but it is very true. Pedroia, Youkilis, Buchholz, Lester are all worth 15-20 million. Is it worth keeping Ellsbury if it means we'd have to get rid of Pedroia/Buchholz/Lester/Youklis?

[Palodios]

See here's the problem. There have to be other people willing to pay more than the Red Sox. If the Yankees want to give him 10/200mm and have him from the age of 31-41, go right ahead, but I'm fairly certain they learned their lesson with ARod.

 

The Sox will give him 6/120 or something around there. And to be honest with you, who is going to pay him more than that? The Angels? They lowballed Crawford at 6/108. The Yankees? They'll drive the price up, and if they want him through 38 at $20mm a year, have at him. 6/120 is the most that makes sense, and Theo has shown multiple times that he doesn't like signing a guy to a contract past 35 or 36. He may bump the AAV, but not the years.

 

The two biggest concerns about Crawford-- terrible splits and playing on turf-- are not issues with Ellsbury, which is why I think someone will be willing to pay bigger money for him. A small market team like the Nationals could swoop in and grab him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wouldn't disregard that post. It is usual Sox-pesimistic Jacko' date=' but it is very true. Pedroia, Youkilis, Buchholz, Lester are all worth 15-20 million. Is it worth keeping Ellsbury if it means we'd have to get rid of Pedroia/Buchholz/Lester/Youklis?[/quote']

 

I love how Jacko conveniently neglects to mention the contracts coming off the books over the next 3 years:

 

Drew (14mm)

Scutaro (5.5mm)

Cameron (7.5mm)

Beckett (16mm)

Lackey (17mm)

Youkilis (13mm)

 

Pedroia and Lester could make $16mm and $20mm respectively. Beckett and Lackey will obviously walk. Youkilis will walk if Middlebrooks is half as good as the Sox say he is.

 

Basically, while we may be locking up these guys to long term deals, that doesn't mean we're not going to be having other big name players coming off the books only to be replaced by other young players who sign team friendly deals.

 

Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, Brentz, Jacobs, Saltalamacchia, Kalish, Reddick, Iglesias are all guys who may very well come up, sign team friendly deals just like Buch, Lester, and Pedroia did, and then we're in the exact same situation we're in right now, except the team friendly guys have graduated to the higher paid guys, and our farm has come into the team friendly guys.

[Palodios]

Drew/Cameron/Scutaro's number are already accounted for in escalating contracts.

Losing Beckett will leaving a very large hole to replace as-is, and I could very easily see Youkilis taking over as DH. You also have to factor in those new player friendly contracts for the younger guys.

[AtWork]

I wouldn't disregard that post. It is usual Sox-pesimistic Jacko' date=' but it is very true. Pedroia, Youkilis, Buchholz, Lester are all worth 15-20 million. Is it worth keeping Ellsbury if it means we'd have to get rid of Pedroia/Buchholz/Lester/Youklis?[/quote']

 

How will keeping Ellsbury prevent us from re-signing those players? We're not going to re-sign Youkilis anyways at age 35 and Buchholz is under contract through 2017.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Drew/Cameron/Scutaro's number are already accounted for in escalating contracts.

Losing Beckett will leaving a very large hole to replace as-is, and I could very easily see Youkilis taking over as DH.

 

This is all why it's so important to build your farm. Jacko is acting like we aren't going to have anyone in our farm system take over, and that we're not going to have any expiring contracts.

 

Lavarnway could very well DH/C/1B, which gives us a much more flexible DH. Middlebrooks could become our new 3B. Kalish could be our new RF. Ranaudo and Barnes could be the next Lester and Buchholz, with Lester and Buch becoming the next Lackey/Beckett. It's all a cycle. It happens all the time.

[Will617]

This is all why it's so important to build your farm. Jacko is acting like we aren't going to have anyone in our farm system take over, and that we're not going to have any expiring contracts.

 

Lavarnway could very well DH/C/1B, which gives us a much more flexible DH. Middlebrooks could become our new 3B. Kalish could be our new RF. Ranaudo and Barnes could be the next Lester and Buchholz, with Lester and Buch becoming the next Lackey/Beckett. It's all a cycle. It happens all the time.

 

Personally, I think you're brushing off Jacko's arguments a little too lightly. The Sox have talent now that can take over CF and RF (Kalish and Reddick). Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, and Barnes can all still flame out since they're further from the majors. We don't know what our pitching prospects will look like in 4 years. Resigning Ellsbury to $20 mil/year would impact our flexibility in the market to address other needs, especially since we have better-known qualities at the OF than we do at any other position in our organization.

I still want to keep Ellsbury, but I would understand if Theo didn't resign him.

[Palodios]

This is all why it's so important to build your farm. Jacko is acting like we aren't going to have anyone in our farm system take over, and that we're not going to have any expiring contracts.

 

Lavarnway could very well DH/C/1B, which gives us a much more flexible DH. Middlebrooks could become our new 3B. Kalish could be our new RF. Ranaudo and Barnes could be the next Lester and Buchholz, with Lester and Buch becoming the next Lackey/Beckett. It's all a cycle. It happens all the time.

 

No one seems to realize that there has been a significant gap in the farm system. Buchholz debuted in 2007. From 2008-2010, the only player to emerge was Bard, and that will definitely drain on this team's resources.

 

There is also a very real possibility that the Red Sox may continue to lose popularity to hockey and football and won't be able to charge 100 dollars a ticket anymore. There is also the possibility that Crawford turns into a monster bust, and the team will have to deal with that. Of the "Core-Five", Youkilis is probably the most expendable, but Ellsbury is a close second who is significantly more expensive.

[AtWork]

No one seems to realize that there has been a significant gap in the farm system. Buchholz debuted in 2007. From 2008-2010, the only player to emerge was Bard, and that will definitely drain on this team's resources.

 

There is also a very real possibility that the Red Sox may continue to lose popularity to hockey and football and won't be able to charge 100 dollars a ticket anymore. There is also the possibility that Crawford turns into a monster bust, and the team will have to deal with that. Of the "Core-Five", Youkilis is probably the most expendable, but Ellsbury is a close second who is significantly more expensive.

 

What makes Ellsbury so expendable?