DH future

[a700hitter]

I hope you're right. It is a great natural fit and he clearly doesn't have a lot of other options. Plus' date=' they are much more likely to play their game of draft-pick chicken with Papelbon after the season and enjoy any draft picks they get from his dumb-ass than let go of their middle-order, affordable, hometown-hero bat.[/quote']I think it would be a mistake to let Papelbon go for draft picks. I think he has many more productive years. He is improving his secondary pitches. People are mistaken if they think that he is just a rear back and throw the ball guy. In 45 years of watching the Sox, he has been their best closer by a huge margin. The end of the bullpen is such a huge component for winning teams today. They should keep Bard and Papelbon for as long as they can.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think it would be a mistake to let Papelbon go for draft picks. I think he has many more productive years. He is improving his secondary pitches. People are mistaken if they think that he is just a rear back and throw the ball guy. In 45 years of watching the Sox' date=' he has been their best closer by a huge margin. The end of the bullpen is such a huge component for winning teams today. They should keep Bard and Papelbon for as long as they can.[/quote']

 

I think it would be a mistake to offer him arbitration after the year he's having on the salary he's got. Sox should let him walk, then offer him a multi-year deal at around 12-14mm/year if they want him back. If they offer him arbitration, they'll be on the hook for around 15-16mm for 1 year if Pap accepts.

[a700hitter]

I think it would be a mistake to offer him arbitration after the year he's having on the salary he's got. Sox should let him walk' date=' then offer him a multi-year deal at around 12-14mm/year if they want him back. If they offer him arbitration, they'll be on the hook for around 15-16mm for 1 year if Pap accepts.[/quote']A one year commitment for a pitcher like Papelbon's caliber should be welcomed by the Sox. Having him and Bard shortening games to 7 innings is a valuable luxury. Plus, if they don't offer him arbitration, they get nothing for him-- no draft picks. To let the best closer in team history walk at age 30 and get nothing in return would be stupid, and this FO is not stupid.

 

Let's not forget that this guy has reached 200 saves faster than anyone in history. People need to put this guy into perspective. For his career his k/9 inn is 10.5 and Mo's is 8.2. His k/BB ratio is also better than Mo's. Paps save % is 88% and Mo's is 89%. If you are good enough to compare to or be better than Mo in these categories, you are pretty special.

[BornToRun]

A one year commitment for a pitcher like Papelbon's caliber should be welcomed by the Sox. Having him and Bard shortening games to 7 innings is a valuable luxury. Plus, if they don't offer him arbitration, they get nothing for him-- no draft picks. To let the best closer in team history walk at age 30 and get nothing in return would be stupid, and this FO is not stupid.

 

Let's not forget that this guy has reached 200 saves faster than anyone in history. People need to put this guy into perspective. For his career his k/9 inn is 10.5 and Mo's is 8.2. His k/BB ratio is also better than Mo's. Paps save % is 88% and Mo's is 89%. If you are good enough to compare to or be better than Mo in these categories, you are pretty special.

 

Mo's kind of overrated too if you ask me (I'll explain this if need be, I'm not saying he isn't great)

[Jwmann2]

Even though Giambi is playing with the Rockies, I think he could be a great DH if he were to come back to the AL. Thome is still playing...Frank Thomas played for a while...other players like Adam Dunn have struggled making the adjustment to not playing everyday. I love the DH, it is the primary divider among the NL and AL.

As far as Ortiz getting a long term deal, who knows? How many times have the Sox extended offers to players when you didn't think they should have?

[SCM33]

We already have an aging slugger who cant play defense. Why would we replace that with a guy who is older?

 

The days of all hit/no glove DH's are almost over. Papi is the last of a dying breed.

[SoxSport]

Papi is probably overpaid right now as a DH, even for the year he is having--so far. But you look at VMart who is getting $12m to mostly DH, and you wonder where this market is going. I don't know if they will give Papi much more than $6-8M for a year or two. They will say goodbye if he wants more.

He will be hard-pressed to repeat his production next year. They need another RHd power bat in that unbalanced lineup. Something more than a Cameron or McDonald.

[a700hitter]

Papi is probably overpaid right now as a DH, even for the year he is having--so far. But you look at VMart who is getting $12m to mostly DH, and you wonder where this market is going. I don't know if they will give Papi much more than $6-8M for a year or two. They will say goodbye if he wants more.

He will be hard-pressed to repeat his production next year. They need another RHd power bat in that unbalanced lineup. Something more than a Cameron or McDonald.

He hits lefties better than most RH hitters do.

[SCM33]

Papi is probably overpaid right now as a DH, even for the year he is having--so far. But you look at VMart who is getting $12m to mostly DH, and you wonder where this market is going. I don't know if they will give Papi much more than $6-8M for a year or two. They will say goodbye if he wants more.

He will be hard-pressed to repeat his production next year. They need another RHd power bat in that unbalanced lineup. Something more than a Cameron or McDonald.

 

Vmart wasnt paid that money to be a DH. He was paid that money as one of the top 3 offensive catchers in baseball. With Alex Avila only being 24 years old and hitting the way he is (and selected to the AS game),....plus the fact they have Miguel Cabrera at 1B, VMart has made the transition to DH a few years ahead of schedule.

 

Vmart does not set set the market for DH value. Ortiz does, he is the best in the game and its not close, like I said...its a dying breed. Other DH's play other positions. Only Guerrero, Cust, Hafner and Thome have played less games in the field than Ortiz and Ortiz has appeared in twice as many games as Thome and Hafner while Cust has sucked all year long.

 

DH......dying breed, Ortiz sets the market value....not Vmart.

[jacksonianmarch]

when they signed VMart, Dombrowski said he would only catch 1-2 times a week and otherwise be a full time DH

[Dojji]

We already have an aging slugger who cant play defense. Why would we replace that with a guy who is older?

 

The days of all hit/no glove DH's are almost over. Papi is the last of a dying breed.

 

Odd that you say that. I always thought of Papi as a below average but adequate first baseman. He'd never win a Gold Glove, but if he was a NL player he would have played first base a la Prince Fielder and everyone would have just rolled their eyes when the big man muffed a throw to first and argued he didn't do it enough to make up for his value at the dish. He didn't play 1B more in Boston largely because of size and health concerns, not necessarily the glove which I've never seen be a liability on the field when he did play

 

In short the guy's only a "no glove DH" because we can afford to do it here in the AL, not because he couldn't play defense if he had to -- and indeed, when he's had to he's generally proven he knows what to do. That's exactly the kind of DH we'll keep seeing, I can give you one pretty young example, Billy Butler of the Royals.

[a700hitter]

Odd that you say that. I always thought of Papi as a below average but adequate first baseman. He'd never win a Gold Glove, but if he was a NL player he would have played first base a la Prince Fielder and everyone would have just rolled their eyes when the big man muffed a throw to first and argued he didn't do it enough to make up for his value at the dish. He didn't play 1B more in Boston largely because of size and health concerns, not necessarily the glove which I've never seen be a liability on the field when he did play

 

In short the guy's only a "no glove DH" because we can afford to do it here in the AL, not because he couldn't play defense if he had to -- and indeed, when he's had to he's generally proven he knows what to do. That's exactly the kind of DH we'll keep seeing, I can give you one pretty young example, Billy Butler of the Royals.

Ortiz has soft hands in the field-- better than Prince Fielder. He has a good accurate arm and good footwork around the bag. He doesn't have much range and he wouldn't make a lot of acrobatic diving plays. I never feel insecure when we have to put him in the field.

[Dojji]

Pretty much a garden variety 1B then.

 

half the reason we haven't seen Ortiz play more first base is that most of his time here we've had gold glovers, and the other half is to protect his knees as he's let himself get a little big in order to increase his power. If he had an offseason to prepare to do it, he could platoon at 1B even at this point in his career, and if he'd done it all along, he'd probably be someone's starting first baseman right now.

 

Point being, the NL probably shouldn't rule this guy our wholesale when his contract is up. He could be that first bat off the bench who can play in the field on a double switch for any NL team

[Will617]

Other DH's play other positions. Only Guerrero, Cust, Hafner and Thome have played less games in the field than Ortiz and Ortiz has appeared in twice as many games as Thome and Hafner while Cust has sucked all year long.

 

DH......dying breed, Ortiz sets the market value....not Vmart.

 

I don't think that this is true. Just because other people have played less games in the field than Ortiz, does not mean that there are a ton of DHs that can play good defense (I can't remember a non-interleague game where Ortiz was the first baseman).

Of people with minimum 50 PAs as a DH, Michael Young wasn't signed to be a DH (and isn't a good fielder regardless), V-Mart was signed to DH and be an occasional catcher, Hafner is definitely a no-glove DH, Butler was moved to DH after Hosmer was called up, Kubel is terrible defensively, Giambi does play some first (but isn't really a DH since he plays for the Rockies, all the DH at-bats probably came from interleague play), Damon plays for the Rays and they do weird stuff, Abreu is no longer a good fielder, Thome only DHs, and Posada/Guerrero/Matsui can't really play anything besides DH at this point.

Basically, everyone on the list was either pushed out of their position by a better player, or is terrible defensively (or plays for the Rays). I don't see any concerted move towards DHs that are considered good defensively, and I'm not surprised, since teams would have to pay extra to sign those players (while they can lowball players like Guerrero and Ortiz since they provide no defensive value).

[Dojji]

(I can't remember a non-interleague game where Ortiz was the first baseman).

 

I can. There were a few times back earlier closer to Ortiz's prime before Youk broke out to the point you couldn't take him out of the lineup. It wasn't usual, we all know Tito has his way of doing things and in his mind his DH is his DH, but it did happen. It also happened more than a few times in 2006 when injuries just decimated the squad before we acquired Hinske and Pena.

[SCM33]

half the reason we haven't seen Ortiz play more first base is that most of his time here we've had gold glovers' date=' and the other half is to protect his knees as he's let himself get a little big in order to increase his power. If he had an offseason to prepare to do it, he could platoon at 1B even at this point in his career, and if he'd done it all along, he'd probably be someone's starting first baseman right now.[/quote']

 

Gold glovers? He was beat out by Kevin Millar (2003-2006) who had a -28 "total zone rating" and was -30 runs below average in "fielding runs above average" as a career first baseman.

 

Your argument works from the years 2007-2011 when Youkilis was moved over there after we got Mike Lowell/Adrian Gonzalez. It does not work 2003-2006 when Papi was 27/28 and 29 years old with the 4 year older Kevin Millar playing first base, especially considering he had been mostly an OF up to that point.

[Dojji]

Millar never got more than about 100 starts at first base in a year in Boston. He played at first because he was more athletic and the FO and management have certain prejudices. In terms of being a better actual 1B, Ortiz was probably better.

 

Working around Millar at first was the last time Ortiz played there against American League lineups.

[Will617]

I can. There were a few times back earlier closer to Ortiz's prime before Youk broke out to the point you couldn't take him out of the lineup. It wasn't usual' date=' we all know Tito has his way of doing things and in his mind his DH is his DH, but it did happen. It also happened more than a few times in 2006 when injuries just decimated the squad before we acquired Hinske and Pena.[/quote']

 

Oh, I meant this year, not in his career generally.

[SCM33]

Millar never got more than about 100 starts at first base in a year in Boston. He played at first because he was more athletic and the FO and management have certain prejudices. In terms of being a better actual 1B' date=' Ortiz was probably better.[/quote']

 

What? Are you really going to argue that Millar wasn't the teams starting 1b'man 2003-2006? If Ortiz was better, he would have been the starting 1b'man. You really think they started the weaker defensive player for the better part of 3 years because of prejudices???

 

Working around Millar at first was the last time Ortiz played there against American League lineups.

 

Wrong. Ortiz was never a regular first basemen. You talk like Millar and Ortiz split time at 1B. Ortiz has started over 50 games at 1B once in 15 years.

 

The argument about his health doesnt have any weight, he was 24 when he became a fulltime DH with Minnesota. The starting first baseman for Minnesota at the time? 33 year old Ron Coomer. Doug Mientkiewicz came AFTER Ortiz became a full time DH at 24 years old. Then Ortiz came to Boston, and resumed his role as full time DH at the crippled age of 27 years old. He is a DH, because if he were given a chance to start over 100 games in the field......he would look like a DH wearing a glove.

[Steagles]

Jason Kubel? He also provides RF depth and is a FA at the end of the year from Minnesota, and i think they'll keep Cuddyer before they bring back Kubel.

[Will617]

I think Ortiz gets resigned to something like 2/16-2/20. I think he still has a couple more years of .800+ OPS production in him, and if he's genuinely improved as a player (through batting adjustments or whatever), then I wouldn't be worried about drastic decline.

[Palodios]

Ortiz wants at least a two-year deal with an option for a third, and at 36 years old next season, he is a couple of years beyond the age when the Red Sox normally get extremely gun-shy about committing to players for the long term.

 

No wonder just posing the question about his unsettled future makes Ortiz’ Cheshire-cat smile vanish for an instant.

 

“You know what? I’ve been in this organization for nine years. My numbers ain’t that bad, you know what I’m saying?” said Ortiz, who wants to re-sign with the Red Sox. “I don’t think I need to open any more eyes than I have already. If you haven’t seen me, you ain’t.”

 

[/Quote]

 

Two years with a vesting option? I'd say pull the trigger. He's worth it.

[Dojji]

Two years with a vesting option? I'd say pull the trigger. He's worth it.

 

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1247/1206832722_05473948a9_o.jpg

[ORS]

Terrible comparison. Mike Lowell was never the hitter Ortiz was, even in a bad year for Ortiz, and Ortiz is still hitting at a very high level. And, a lot of Lowell's lost value to the team came after he became a statue in the field, which isn't really an issue with Ortiz.

[SCM33]

Terrible comparison. Mike Lowell was never the hitter Ortiz was' date=' even in a bad year for Ortiz, and Ortiz is still hitting at a very high level. And, a lot of Lowell's lost value to the team came after he became a statue in the field, which isn't really an issue with Ortiz.[/quote']

 

I agree.

 

I think Ortiz at 2 years for between 16-20 Million is a good deal, but I wish they had more flexibility defensively in their lineup instead of being hamstrung with a guy who only DH's. I truly believe that Youkillis is the future DH of this team, and he has the ability to play 3B and 1B. If they can find a guy to play 3B with the same production of the tandem they are getting out of Youk and Ortiz right now, you do it.

 

Another thing to think about, is if they let Ortiz go, and obviously Drew goes.....they can replace/increase the production of Ortiz/Youk/Drew next year if they pick up a above average RF bat (not a superstar, just someone consistent) and an average 3B bat. They could actually get MORE production out of the lineup that way depending on matchups/lineups.

[Dojji]

Terrible comparison. Mike Lowell was never the hitter Ortiz was' date=' even in a bad year for Ortiz, and Ortiz is still hitting at a very high level. And, a lot of Lowell's lost value to the team came after he became a statue in the field, which isn't really an issue with Ortiz.[/quote']

 

You're right that he was never the hitter Ortiz was, but he has a body type that should have carried him through that contract, whereas investing in overweight oversized hitters in their late 30's is a mistake far more often than it's a success. Of hitters with that body type in recent memory, only Frank Thomas really was a dependably good investment much after age 35 or so. Age 36 and 37 is where a lot of these guys start to seriously break down. Look at Giambi, Delgado, Frank Thomas, Mo Vaughn, any guy with that body type, and you'll start to see what I mean. It's bad odds IMHO and the Sox should shelve their sentimentality and walk away.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think there is a better than 50-50 shot that he walks. Someone is going to look at his season and his track record and make a play

[AtWork]

If Ortiz walks, it's cause we make a play for someone else.

[Palodios]

I still think there is a better than 50-50 shot that he walks. Someone is going to look at his season and his track record and make a play

 

You never responded to my question. If you're so determined he has a good shot of leaving, where is he going to go? There are only 4 teams that will have any reason to even sign him.

[Dojji]

If Ortiz walks' date=' it's cause we make a play for someone else.[/quote']

 

All for it, but I think you should consider the possibility that "someone else" is a mix of Lowrie, Youk, Adgon, and maybe a prospect like Ryan Lavarnway.