Crawford Lineup Shuffle?

[redsoxrules]

Pedroia is definitely fast enough to score from 1st on a gapper.

 

I disagree. Crawford pelts gaps when he's not ice cold.

 

Plain and simple, you don't like Crawford, and there's no reason to argue with you because you don't think logically or rationally.

 

 

For f*** sakes , you made an argument that Crawford should be batting 3rd because he can drive in runs with a gap shot with an man on first , ells or pedey

 

I've made a damn good argument that its greater for Agon to bring the run home or any runs home for that matter

 

its nothing about hating carl crawford anymore , its about logic

[SoxFanForsyth]

For f*** sakes , you made an argument that Crawford should be batting 3rd because he can drive in runs with a gap shot with an man on first , ells or pedey

 

I've made a damn good argument that its greater for Agon to bring the run home or any runs home for that matter

 

its nothing about hating carl crawford anymore , its about logic

 

Dude. Chill. Same team.

 

Go drink a crown and coke or something. Take the edge off. We disagree, it doesn't matter.

[a700hitter]

I don't think the base clogging argument holds any water. AGon, Youk and Ortiz should combine for 180 + extra basehits. Crawford will be coming up a lot with the bases empty or a man on second. The 3-4-5 guys are slow, but I think Crawford will have room to run if he spots them 2 bases.

[snydersminipretzels]

Crawford got caught stealing for the 4th time this year. That would be a bigger issue if he was doing that in front of Gonzalez/Youkilis/Ortiz. Hypothetically, Crawford getting caught would be a greater impact on runs than base cloggers preventing him from taking a triple.

[ORS]

What it boils down to is that there are only a couple of players on our team that can score from 1st on balls in the gap. Anyone can score when Gonzo hits a bomb. There are 2 players on our team who can score from 1st on a wall ball double. The wall ball double is a signature shot from Pedroia. Why not go Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedroia? You put Ellsbury in front of Crawford' date=' he won't slow Craw down. You put Pedroia behind the two, he's got gap power and HR power, and both of those hitters can score from 1st on a gapper. Then you hit your Gonzo - Youk - Ortiz. If, like you say, Pedroia isn't fast enough to score from 1st on a gapper, then it doesn't matter because Gonzo, Youk, and Ortiz all can hit bombs.[/quote']

All this sounds fun, but none of it overcomes the "why not" you've been given ad nauseum. The "why not" is moving the 3 beasts further down in the order. You want a "why not", there it is.....again.

[Dipre]

There are some things that the guys that have boners for Crawford refuse to understand, and that is that with the way the 3-4-5 hitters are hitting, the 6th spot in the lineup maximizes his assets while hiding away the holes in his game.

 

He doesn't have the OBP to hit 1st, Pedey is a better 2 hitter than him, and no way you move any of the 3-4-5 for him, because they are clearly superior hitters than him, however, in the 6th spot, you can utilize his above average power, and he can run as much as he wants with weaker hitters behind him.

 

The "clogging the basepaths" argument is ********. With the power the hitters in front of him have, if he hits with men on base, they'll usually be in scoring position.

[redsoxbeatz]

This whole argument seems silly b/c it's up to Tito. On the bright side, at least we're a team that can have this argument. A lot of other teams are just wondering how to win much less where one of the best players in the MLB right now should bat in their lineup.

 

Go Sox!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Let me amend my initial opinion on this.

 

Until something changes, Crawford needs to hit 6th. Our line up is producing extremely well right now, so until something happens, Craw 6th is where he is best off.

 

Now, in the event that someone starts struggling, I think Crawford should be the guy who gets the call to move up in the line up.

[Dipre]

Sensible stance. I agree.

[SoxSport]

Let me amend my initial opinion on this.

 

Until something changes, Crawford needs to hit 6th. Our line up is producing extremely well right now, so until something happens, Craw 6th is where he is best off.

 

Now, in the event that someone starts struggling, I think Crawford should be the guy who gets the call to move up in the line up.

 

Pedroia has been hitting less than .200 until the last few games--and Tito has kept him in the 2-hole. Of course, CC was hitting about .150 at the same time.

 

Now that both guys are on the upswing, it's time for Tito to tweak that lineup again, and get the speed at the top of the lineup. Even though Pedey has more SBs than CC . Not for long.

[Six4Three]

CC is about the least the likely player you'll find to hit into a double play. (Far less likely than Pedroia). That reduces the downside of moving everyone down a spot with him in the 2 hole. I doubt it will ever happen but it's not as unsafe a move as old-schoolers might think. Extra steals, double steals, throw-overs, and pitch-outs are the last thing opposing teams will want to deal worry about, especially in the first inning.

 

Yes Pedroia is a great #2 hitter but he's never had Crawford, Ellsbury, Youk, and A-Gon on his team at the same time before.

 

Lastly, the lineup will be shaken up sooner or later by injuries anyway. Problem solved.

[redsoxbeatz]

CC is about the least the likely player you'll find to hit into a double play. (Far less likely than Pedroia). That reduces the downside of moving everyone down a spot with him in the 2 hole. I doubt it will ever happen but it's not as unsafe a move as old-schoolers might think. Extra steals, double steals, throw-overs, and pitch-outs are the last thing opposing teams will want to deal worry about, especially in the first inning.

 

Yes Pedroia is a great #2 hitter but he's never had Crawford, Ellsbury, Youk, and A-Gon on his team at the same time before.

 

Lastly, the lineup will be shaken up sooner or later by injuries anyway. Problem solved.

 

Why is CC the least likely player to hit into a double play? I honestly do not know.

 

And, lets not presume injuries will happen!

[Six4Three]

Crawford only hit into two double plays last year and was safe by a foot on one of them.

 

Crawford - 58 GDP's in 5597 plate appearances

Pedroia --- 56 GDP's in 2709 plate appearances

 

Plus CC steals 2-3x as many bases per season as Pedroia.

 

It's a waste of talent and money to put CC so deep into the order, stacked lineup or not.

[SCM33]

Crawford only hit into two double plays last year and was safe by a foot on one of them.

 

Crawford - 58 GDP's in 5597 plate appearances

Pedroia --- 56 GDP's in 2709 plate appearances

 

Plus CC steals 2-3x as many bases per season as Pedroia.

 

It's a waste of talent and money to put CC so deep into the order, stacked lineup or not.

 

So where does he hit other than 6?

 

He isn't hitting 1, hes not an on base guy and the guy they currently have leading off is better at it.

 

He isn't replacing Pedroia at #2, and Pedroia hasn't hit well enough to hit #3. They will not move Pedroia to #6 for a guy who isn't getting on base. BTW, Pedroia has 12 SB's to Crawfords 7 and has also been caught 2 times less than Crawford. Crawford also struck out 100 times last year and 99 the year before that....not exactly what you are looking for out of the #2 spot.

 

He isnt hitting 3. Not even worth talking about.

 

He isn't hitting 4. Not even worth talking about.

 

He isnt hitting 5, Ortiz is hitting .300 with a .371 OB, hes slugging .547 and leads the team with 11 home runs.

 

Waste of talent? Explain.......the other 5 players are better.

 

Waste of money? How? Are you paying his salary?

[Six4Three]

You're right on the 3-4-5 guys which is why I said it would never happen. That leaves CC and Pedroia switching spots.

 

Stolen bases -- CC will have 20+ more SB's than Pedroia this year, and ever year the two of them are full time major league ballplayers.

 

Waste of money -- as someone said earlier, if the Sox didn't want to utilize speed they could have saved a ton of money on a slower player with the same or even better offensive numbers.

 

Waste of talent -- Youk, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Ellsbury never have been and never will be better than CC in any athletic activity. Certainly not the game of baseball. You were kidding on that one right?

 

Pedroia's numbers are not more impressive than CC's. Not only that, they're a much smaller sample size lifetime and I believe Pedroia's 2008 year was a fluke. Even this year with CC's horrific start he still has 7 more total bases than Pedroia.

 

The only remaining reason to keep those two where they are is because CC is obviously cool enough to hit wherever and Pedroia would no doubt throw a tantrum. The last thin Tito needs is a 5'7 Tasmanian Devil wrecking the clubhouse and team morale.

[Jwmann2]

He will be in the 1-5 spot at some point this season. Just not yet. It's an all star team, who cares where he is batting? The Red Sox are hot right now. Don''t try and fix it.

[redsoxrules]

You're right on the 3-4-5 guys which is why I said it would never happen. That leaves CC and Pedroia switching spots.

 

Stolen bases -- CC will have 20+ more SB's than Pedroia this year, and ever year the two of them are full time major league ballplayers.

 

Waste of money -- as someone said earlier, if the Sox didn't want to utilize speed they could have saved a ton of money on a slower player with the same or even better offensive numbers.

 

Waste of talent -- Youk, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Ellsbury never have been and never will be better than CC in any athletic activity. Certainly not the game of baseball. You were kidding on that one right?

 

Pedroia's numbers are not more impressive than CC's. Not only that, they're a much smaller sample size lifetime and I believe Pedroia's 2008 year was a fluke. Even this year with CC's horrific start he still has 7 more total bases than Pedroia. The only remaining reason to keep those two where they are is because CC is obviously cool enough to hit wherever and Pedroia would no doubt throw a tantrum. The last thin Tito needs is a 5'7 Tasmanian Devil wrecking the clubhouse and team morale.

 

Pedroia gets on base , witch is what you want from the top of order .

Pedroia 's OBP is 90 points higher than Crawford at the moment .

[Six4Three]

Pedroia's OPB is not high enough to trump Crawford's speed. Maybe when CC is only stealing 20 bases per season you'd have a point but his contract with the Red Sox will be over by then.

[iortiz]

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/8373/screenshot20110601at107.png

 

I was wrong too, there is no room for Crawford in the 1-3 spots of this lineup, certainly not in the near/mid/distant future if this lineup continues. Numbers don't lie. MJ, you just can close this thread, and start a new one called "why the hell the Boston Red Sox paid those tons of money for a 6-8 spot" .

 

Don't get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of CC (In fact I was very excited when the RS made the announcement that he was coming), he will produce in this team and I’m glad that he is part of this lineup. But If you see the thing, plain and simple, just as a business, I would say that we got a 6-8 luxury spot for this lineup, so...IMO they could hire a 6-8 spot for a considerable less amount of money with similar numbers; but i insist, as a fan i'm very excited that he's with the Boston Red Sox.

[ORS]

Pedroia's OPB is not high enough to trump Crawford's speed. Maybe when CC is only stealing 20 bases per season you'd have a point but his contract with the Red Sox will be over by then.

Can you support this statistically? Because, I can make a decent case to the contrary.

 

The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases.

 

Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB....

 

BB: 0.33

SB: 0.30

 

So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out....

 

OUT: -0.27

 

Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth ....

 

30 * (0.33) = 10 runs

 

Crawfords is worth....

 

30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs

 

...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.

[Dojji]

This isn't the best hitting we'll ever see out of Crawford, I really believe that, but it's going to take him making some adjustments to regain his consistency.

[iortiz]

Can you support this statistically? Because, I can make a decent case to the contrary.

 

The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases.

 

Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB....

 

BB: 0.33

SB: 0.30

 

So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out....

 

OUT: -0.27

 

Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth ....

 

30 * (0.33) = 10 runs

 

Crawfords is worth....

 

30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs

 

...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.

 

Hi ORS, in order to understand your case, where/how you got those linear weights (.30,.33.,-.27).

 

Thanks.

[ORS]

Google: baseball linear weights

 

You get not only approximate numbers for the events that you can use, but you'll also find information about what they mean and how they were determined.

[SoxSport]

Somebody wake Tito up and remind him CC should be batting 2nd now that he's himself again at the plate. He's not stealing bases in the 6-hole, which tells me he's a bit confused about his role. I think Tito's a bit confused, too, which is understandable considering all that talent he has to shuffle around. But he has to know he can't get pure CC until the guy is batting 2nd and stealing bases with Ellsbury. Those two guys can score a run with two walks and 3 steals batting 1-2. Trouble is, Tito does not value smallball.

[a700hitter]

Somebody wake Tito up and remind him CC should be batting 2nd now that he's himself again at the plate. He's not stealing bases in the 6-hole' date=' which tells me he's a bit confused about his role. I think Tito's a bit confused, too, which is understandable considering all that talent he has to shuffle around. But he has to know he can't get pure CC until the guy is batting 2nd and stealing bases with Ellsbury. Those two guys can score a run with two walks and 3 steals batting 1-2. Trouble is, Tito does not value smallball.[/quote']Somebody just needs to wake up Tito. Buy him some 5 Hour Energy.

[redsoxrules]

Somebody wake Tito up and remind him CC should be batting 2nd now that he's himself again at the plate. He's not stealing bases in the 6-hole' date=' which tells me he's a bit confused about his role[/b']. I think Tito's a bit confused, too, which is understandable considering all that talent he has to shuffle around. But he has to know he can't get pure CC until the guy is batting 2nd and stealing bases with Ellsbury. Those two guys can score a run with two walks and 3 steals batting 1-2. Trouble is, Tito does not value smallball.

 

JESUS....

 

He's not stealing any bases because HE'S NOT GETTING ON BASE . its not because of where he is in the lineup

 

My god .... Crawford's OBP is 269 for the year

explain to me how the hell he would have more SB if he was hitting higher in the lineup ?

 

and FYI he's 3 for his last 20 so he hasent found himself yet at the plate

[iortiz]

Google: baseball linear weights

 

You get not only approximate numbers for the events that you can use, but you'll also find information about what they mean and how they were determined.

 

Thanks, i just thought that you got them with an arithmetic operation with the information of their SB,BB, Rs, etc. I'll check it out. Do you recommend a particular site?

 

thanks.

[ORS]

Thanks, i just thought that you got them with an arithmetic operation with the information of their SB,BB, Rs, etc. I'll check it out. Do you recommend a particular site?

 

thanks.

No, I didn't calculate them myself. You'll find something useful on just about any of the top 10 hits on google.

[iortiz]

No' date=' I didn't calculate them myself. You'll find something useful on just about any of the top 10 hits on google.[/quote']

 

i just found out.... pretty interesting, just as you said, you can calculate any event with any situation. :thumbsup:

 

thanks again.

[iortiz]

Can you support this statistically? Because, I can make a decent case to the contrary.

 

The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases.

 

Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB....

 

BB: 0.33

SB: 0.30

 

So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out....

 

OUT: -0.27

 

Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth ....

 

30 * (0.33) = 10 runs

 

Crawfords is worth....

 

30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs

 

...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.

 

Those LWs are Rs expectancies for those situations, but in the end based on a model, to predict those Rs, right?, so... in order to rest your case, here the facts:

 

In 162 games, CC has 99 Rs, 102 SB and 38 BB and Peddy has 108 Rs, 59 SB, 67 BB

 

In 162 games, CC(Rs)-P(Rs)=9 Rs, Coincidence?... This guy is right!, another way to probe that CC has no room in the 1-2 spot.

 

EDIT: 2011: CC(Rbat) -9, P(Rbat) -2. CC(Rbaser) 0, P(Rbaser) 2... nothing else to say!