4/29 vs. Seattle

[ORS]

So' date=' 2 posts ago you savage the 1 game theory in which Crawford struck the ball well last game (which, lets not forget, he went 2/4 in two consecutive games @LAA), but then you cite 6 hitters who have had 1 good game against a good pitcher? Which is it? You can't have both.[/quote']

Nice try.

 

I said he's only been good against s***** pitchers, which you turned into the strawman of "who has been good against good pitchers?". The answer is, everybody but Crawford.

[WellBefore2004]

The Red Sox are 1st in walks. 19th in runs score. DOES NOT COMPUTE

 

Because our offense turns into the Seattle Mariners with men on base, as we all know.

[MJantomaso]

Crawford is on the cusp of nothing, not in my opinion, not when I watch him. He still looks like s***. He looked better earlier in the year when he was at least hitting the ball hard with some bad luck.

 

You can still have them hit back to back by hitting the weaker hitter 9th. The only difference is at the start of the game, but that, to me, is a chance to get in the head of the other team by putting up runs in your first turn at the plate. By putting a weak hitter up there, you give the pitcher an easy out to get around early trouble.

 

I don't care if Crawford is making $20M to hit 9th. If he's hitting like a #9 hitter, then hit him #9.

 

When you have Varitek hitting behind you you are never going to see a good pitch...

 

Wonder if you noticed that.

[ORS]

When you have Varitek hitting behind you you are never going to see a good pitch...

 

Wonder if you noticed that.

Right, so all Carl can do is hit it feebly. He can't take some of those pitches and get on base, where he can use his best weapon, his speed to the team's advantage. I forgot that he has to swing at everything the pitcher throws.

 

Thanks for reminding me of that.

 

EDIT: Also, he's seeing the typical amount of pitches in the zone, 46.6% of pitches are in the strikezone, compared to 43% and 49% the last two years.

[Palodios]

When you have Varitek hitting behind you you are never going to see a good pitch...

 

Wonder if you noticed that.

 

I think the balance is off for this team. That's why I suggest Crawford at 9, and that is also ORS's position in the quoted post.

 

Ells/Pedroia/Agon/Youk/Ortiz/Lowrie/Drew/Catcher/Crawford is the ideal lineup right now. Ortiz/Drew following Youk back-to-back is a horrible idea that needs to stop, and it is killing Youk, and Crawford/Catcher/Scutaro is killing Crawford.

[RedSoxFaithful]

what If we moved Jed into the 3 hole and moved A-gon to 4th and Youk to 5th.

 

Cause Youk is struggling with RISP and striking out more than usual.

[RedSoxFaithful]

quick question also, alot of you use a lot of statistics what website do you get these from?

[RedSoxFaithful]

Vargas ain't too different from Bergesen. We should perform just as well if not better tomorrow.

 

except we kind of made Bergesen look like cy young last night and cored when we got into the bullpen. we need to make scrub pitchers like Vargas and Bergesen look like said scrub pitchers.

[MJantomaso]

Right, so all Carl can do is hit it feebly. He can't take some of those pitches and get on base, where he can use his best weapon, his speed to the team's advantage. I forgot that he has to swing at everything the pitcher throws.

 

Thanks for reminding me of that.

 

Ya, its a lot easier to say than do. Laying off a pitch is a lot harder than you think when you know you arnt going to get a better pitch to hit. He wants to hit the ball...he's a .300 hitter for god sakes. How can a slumping hitter get his confidence back when all he is seeing is off speed and fastballs up and in on the hands or down and away on the black? He needs protection to get his confidence back in his bat. There is no use for him at the bottom of the lineup...

[ORS]

Ya' date=' its a lot easier to say than do. Laying off a pitch is a lot harder than you think when you know you arnt going to get a better pitch to hit. He wants to hit the ball...he's a .300 hitter for god sakes. How can a slumping hitter get his confidence back when all he is seeing is off speed and fastballs up and in on the hands or down and away on the black? [/quote']

If he's struggling with these pitches now while Varitek is hitting behind him, what makes you think they don't pitch him this way with Gonzo or Youk behind him? The fact that he can be pitched this way means he will continue to be pitched this way until he proves he can handle it, regardless of who is hitting behind him. This is what advanced scouting is for.

 

He needs protection to get his confidence back in his bat.

No, he needs to handle this approach to get his confidence back. Protection won't change the way pitchers are attacking him.

 

There is no use for him at the bottom of the lineup...

What in the world does this mean? He's useful in any part of the lineup when he's performing. He's not performing. His lack of usefulness is tied to his performance, not where he is in the lineup.

[RedSoxFaithful]

Ya' date=' its a lot easier to say than do. Laying off a pitch is a lot harder than you think when you know you arnt going to get a better pitch to hit. He wants to hit the ball...he's a .300 hitter for god sakes. How can a slumping hitter get his confidence back when all he is seeing is off speed and fastballs up and in on the hands or down and away on the black? He needs protection to get his confidence back in his bat. There is no use for him at the bottom of the lineup...[/quote']

 

If he is hitting 9th like ORS said then he won't have Tek/Salty?Scutaro behind him and he will be back to back with Ells after the first run through of the lineup

[Palodios]

Ya' date=' its a lot easier to say than do. Laying off a pitch is a lot harder than you think when you know you arnt going to get a better pitch to hit. He wants to hit the ball...he's a .300 hitter for god sakes. How can a slumping hitter get his confidence back when all he is seeing is off speed and fastballs up and in on the hands or down and away on the black? He needs protection to get his confidence back in his bat. There is no use for him at the bottom of the lineup...[/quote']

 

He's not going to get any different a look at 9 than he would at 1(where Tito had originally wanted him). Its just as matter of pushing everyone up a spot.

[RedSoxFaithful]

Haha, Salty #6 on ESPN not top 10 for his stupid ass pass ball where Abreu scored from second.

[MJantomaso]

He's not going to get any different a look at 9 than he would at 1(where Tito had originally wanted him). Its just as matter of pushing everyone up a spot.

 

9th isnt a bad spot for him but its not as sexy having a $142mil player hitting 9th

[MJantomaso]

I dont mean to come off as a dick just frustrated lol

 

I just think the formula to get Carl going is solid hitters in front of him (Ells and Pedy) which will generate more fastballs for him to avoid walking and getting more runners on for the big guys behind him (Gonz, Youk, etc..)

 

Just my opinion..

[BornToRun]

I like the idea to bump him up to the 2 spot. He hit very well in the Angels series and compared to his early April struggles, he's been doing pretty damn good and it does look like he's starting to come out of it. Look what happened with Ellsbury when we bumped him up, he's hitting the cover off the ball. I say give it a try along with bumping Dusty to 3, Agon to 4, and Youk to 5 or 6

[SoxFanForsyth]

Right, so all Carl can do is hit it feebly. He can't take some of those pitches and get on base, where he can use his best weapon, his speed to the team's advantage. I forgot that he has to swing at everything the pitcher throws.

 

Thanks for reminding me of that.

 

EDIT: Also, he's seeing the typical amount of pitches in the zone, 46.6% of pitches are in the strikezone, compared to 43% and 49% the last two years.

 

Crawford has never been a BB guy, we knew this when we signed him. He's never had more than 51 walks in a season and averages 33 per season over his career. The point is, he's got a .184 BABIP compared to a career mark. of .330. He is striking out consistent with career norms.

 

I'm not sure if you heard Magadan's interview yesterday, but he said that Crawford is a different kind of hitter. He's not a guy that focuses on mechanics. He uses his athleticism to hit, and rather than focusing on mechanics, he wants to feel comfortable at the plate. Well, he's got 2,450 AB's in the 2 slot in his career and he has hit at a .305 clip while there. I'd say that's going to make him feel the most comfortable. His old manager said he does the best when he's hitting in the 2 slot. Why the hell not give him a shot hitting in the 2 slot and try to get his comfort level and confidence level up? It makes zero sense to NOT move him up.

[yankees228]

SFF, if you're implying that he has just been unlucky because his K-rates are consistent with career norms, and his BABIP is so low, you're forgetting that, in large part, the huge BABIP drop off is due to Crawford just not hitting the ball with the same authority that he's used to -- 14.5 LD% compared to a 19.5 career average.

[Wil Corderos Wife]

I could see this turning into another 7 innings of 1 hit ball affair with us at the wrong end of it. If that happens, I'm going to cut off this gentleman's left arm and shove it down his throat. But if Dice-man can at least repeat his ninja ways of the previous two starts, then we'll be in good shape.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF' date=' if you're implying that he has just been unlucky because his K-rates are consistent with career norms, and his BABIP is so low, you're forgetting that, in large part, the huge BABIP drop off is due to Crawford just not hitting the ball with the same authority that he's used to -- 14.5 LD% compared to a 19.5 career average.[/quote']

 

I understand that, but even with a 14.5% LD%, he should still be getting with a much better rate. Troy Tulo had a 15% LD% last year and he still hit .315 with a .327 BABIP. Rajai Davis, another quick player, had a 15.5% LD% and had a .322 BABIP. I understand that when his LD% increases back to career norms, his numbers will trend as well, but you can't say that he his BABIP should be around .180 bc of his lower LD%.

[yankees228]

I understand that' date=' but even with a 14.5% LD%, he should still be getting with a much better rate. Troy Tulo had a 15% LD% last year and he still hit .315 with a .327 BABIP. Rajai Davis, another quick player, had a 15.5% LD% and had a .322 BABIP. I understand that when his LD% increases back to career norms, his numbers will trend as well, but you can't say that he his BABIP should be around .180 bc of his lower LD%.[/quote']

 

I'm not sure that other players are all that relevant in this instance. You keep mentioning his career BABIP, and it's a reasonable thing to bring up, but he sustains that BABIP with a LD% that is 5% above what he's doing now. At least in my opinion, those two things, BABIP and LD%, are tied together. I agree that even with his current LD% Crawford has been unlucky to some extent. But unless he raises that LD%, it's unreasonable to expect some magical correction, like you would with a player that has a low BABIP, but whose K-rates and LD% are consistent with career norms.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not sure that other players are all that relevant in this instance. You keep mentioning his career BABIP' date=' and it's a reasonable thing to bring up, but he sustains that BABIP with a LD% that is 5% above what he's doing now. At least in my opinion, those two things, BABIP and LD%, are tied together. I agree that even with his current LD% Crawford has been unlucky to some extent. But unless he raises that LD%, it's unreasonable to expect some magical correction, like you would with a player that has a low BABIP, but whose K-rates and LD% are consistent with career norms.[/quote']

 

Even if BABIP and LD% had a direct correlation, an increase in LD% from 14.5% to 19.5% would only increase his BABIP from .182 to .232. And even at .232, he would STILL be 100 points under his career norm BABIP of .330.

 

And by the way. After 24 games it's ridiculous to draw any conclusions about LD% for the projected future. If he comes out and hits 2 line drives tonight, his LD% jumps to 16.7%. Just 2 AB jumps his LD% by 2.2%. Way too early to say that "It is unreasonable to expect some magical correction". No its not. In fact, I would expect his numbers to trend more toward career norms than I would toward current totals.

[MJantomaso]

Statistics are overrated...

 

I've played this game from tee-ball to College. Carl's problem is between his ears. He needs to be in a spot where he feels comfortable and confident. Until then we are going to see the same old struggles until a move is made.

[Wil Corderos Wife]

Take this stats talk to SOSH! The game thread is the place to be illogical and comically misguided anyway.

[ORS]

Crawford has never been a BB guy, we knew this when we signed him. He's never had more than 51 walks in a season and averages 33 per season over his career. The point is, he's got a .184 BABIP compared to a career mark. of .330. He is striking out consistent with career norms.

 

I'm not sure if you heard Magadan's interview yesterday, but he said that Crawford is a different kind of hitter. He's not a guy that focuses on mechanics. He uses his athleticism to hit, and rather than focusing on mechanics, he wants to feel comfortable at the plate. Well, he's got 2,450 AB's in the 2 slot in his career and he has hit at a .305 clip while there. I'd say that's going to make him feel the most comfortable. His old manager said he does the best when he's hitting in the 2 slot. Why the hell not give him a shot hitting in the 2 slot and try to get his comfort level and confidence level up? It makes zero sense to NOT move him up.

This has got to be the weakest justification you've come up with yet. It's a bunch of psychological BS. Everyone has their preferences, in just about every industry, but when it's time to perform your job, professionals perform their job. I don't believe for a second that these guys are so mentally fragile that they need to hit in some mythical "ideal spot" to be comfortable enough to perform their jobs.

 

You want to know what makes zero sense? Chasing leprechauns to make the team better when there's hard data to use.

[yankees228]

Even if BABIP and LD% had a direct correlation, an increase in LD% from 14.5% to 19.5% would only increase his BABIP from .182 to .232. And even at .232, he would STILL be 100 points under his career norm BABIP of .330.

 

And by the way. After 24 games it's ridiculous to draw any conclusions about LD% for the projected future. If he comes out and hits 2 line drives tonight, his LD% jumps to 16.7%. Just 2 AB jumps his LD% by 2.2%. Way too early to say that "It is unreasonable to expect some magical correction". No its not. In fact, I would expect his numbers to trend more toward career norms than I would toward current totals.

 

Nice straw-man. I wasn't using it to project anything about the future. I was using it to help explain his slump. I also said not to expect a magical correction, because I don't think that correction will come until he begins hitting the ball with more authority. Nowhere did I say anything about what I expect for the future, only that one thing needs to happen for another thing to happen ... both of which, for the record, I expect to happen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Red Sox line up vs Mariners: Ellsbury CF, Pedroia 2B, Gonzalez 1B, Youkilis 3B, Ortiz DH, Lowrie SS, Cameron RF, Varitek C, McDonald LF, Matsuzaka P

[yankees228]

And not even gonna touch the stats debate.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This has got to be the weakest justification you've come up with yet. It's a bunch of psychological BS. Everyone has their preferences, in just about every industry, but when it's time to perform your job, professionals perform their job. I don't believe for a second that these guys are so mentally fragile that they need to hit in some mythical "ideal spot" to be comfortable enough to perform their jobs.

 

You want to know what makes zero sense? Chasing leprechauns to make the team better when there's hard data to use.

 

Yeah. You're right. Confidence and comfort is a complete ******** argument at the plate. Magadan was out of his mind yesterday when he said "Crawford needs to be comfortable at the plate". That's exactly right. It would be ridiculous to try to help Crawford get comfortable by putting him in a slot that he's accustomed to. I mean it didn't help Ellsbury at all. Completely overrated. Nice response.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And not even gonna touch the stats debate.

 

Dude. I don't see how a 5% decrease in LD% justifies a 15% drop in BABIP. It makes absolutely zero sense at all. This early in the season, it's a difference of 4 total hits. That's it. So you're telling me that if he squared 4 of the 76 balls he's hit differently that his BABIP would be normalized? It makes zero sense.