4/29 vs. Seattle

[yankees228]

Dude. I don't see how a 5% decrease in LD% justifies a 15% drop in BABIP. It makes absolutely zero sense at all. This early in the season' date=' it's a difference of 4 total hits. That's it. So you're telling me that if he squared 4 of the 76 balls he's hit differently that his BABIP would be normalized? It makes zero sense.[/quote']

 

Not sure why you quoted this post, but anyway ... let me ask you this. What do you think is the more significant cause for Crawford's struggles, luck or the fact that he's just not swinging the bat well and hitting the ball with authority?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure why you quoted this post' date=' but anyway ... let me ask you this. What do you think is the more significant cause for Crawford's struggles, luck or the fact that he's just not swinging the bat well and hitting the ball with authority?[/quote']

 

Well clearly the LD% has something to do with it, but the primary reason is luck. Even if he hit 4 more LD and 4 fewer FB, which would normalize his LD% and FB%, and each of those fell for a hit, his BABIP would still be .237. So how do you explain the remaining 100 points in fluctuation? The LD% only solves 5% of the 15% decrease. So I think the whole LD% argument doesn't get close to solving the fluctuation in BABIP.

[ORS]

Yeah. You're right. Confidence and comfort is a complete ******** argument at the plate. Magadan was out of his mind yesterday when he said "Crawford needs to be comfortable at the plate". That's exactly right. It would be ridiculous to try to help Crawford get comfortable by putting him in a slot that he's accustomed to. I mean it didn't help Ellsbury at all. Completely overrated. Nice response.

Another strawman. You keep extrapolating a different position from what people are saying. I never said comfort and confidence played no role. I said, specifically.....

 

I don't believe for a second that these guys are so mentally fragile that they need to hit in some mythical "ideal spot" to be comfortable enough to perform their jobs.

 

In case you are struggling with my meaning here, allow me to help. I don't think where he hits in the lineup impacts comfort and confidence as much as you are suggesting. Success at the plate, ie hitting the ball hard, is what will bring those things. He can start hitting the ball hard from any spot in the lineup.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I understand that hitting the ball hard will create more success. But when a player is comfortable and confident and seeing the ball well, he will put better swings on the ball.

 

What I am saying is that I think Crawford is getting close to being there, and that moving him to the 2 hole would expedite that process because it would increase his confidence and comfort level.

[yankees228]

Well clearly the LD% has something to do with it' date=' but the primary reason is luck. Even if he hit 4 more LD and 4 fewer FB, which would normalize his LD% and FB%, and each of those fell for a hit, his BABIP would still be .237. So how do you explain the remaining 100 points in fluctuation? The LD% only solves 5% of the 15% decrease. So I think the whole LD% argument doesn't get close to solving the fluctuation in BABIP.[/quote']

 

I never said it solved the entire thing. All I meant was that it's a piece of the puzzle. Where we disagree is how much luck is involved in his slow start. Sure, there's some bad luck involved. I liken this to AJ Burnett's 2010 season. He was also unlucky, but even accounting for that, he was still terrible. I think Crawford's case is similar. He has performed a bit better than the numbers indicate, but he has played at a very low level so far this year, and in that regard the numbers are fair.

 

I think Crawford will rebound, sooner rather than later. But it will happen, in large part, because he simply starts swinging the bat better, rather than just luck evening out.

[ORS]

I never said it solved the entire thing. All I meant was that it's a piece of the puzzle. Where we disagree is how much luck is involved in his slow start. Sure, there's some bad luck involved. I liken this to AJ Burnett's 2010 season. He was also unlucky, but even accounting for that, he was still terrible. I think Crawford's case is similar. He has performed a bit better than the numbers indicate, but he has played at a very low level so far this year, and in that regard the numbers are fair.

 

I think Crawford will rebound, sooner rather than later. But it will happen, in large part, because he simply starts swinging the bat better, rather than just luck evening out.

This. Don't have the rates, but just from what I saw in the games, earlier in the year he was hitting the ball hard and getting unlucky. However, since then, the hard hit balls have been fewer and farther in between. He's in a funk. He'll pull out of it, but it is what it is. Given the way others are hitting right now, I want that funk away from the heart of the order. When he starts tatooing balls, I'm all for moving him back up in the order.

[SoxFanForsyth]

See I disagree. From watching the games, the first couple of weeks he wasn't hitting the ball with any authority. Then around the Toronto series, he started hitting the ball hard. I think he's definitely hit the ball harder recently than he did at the beginning of the year. That's why I think he's on the cusp of breaking out.

 

And for the record, I think it's absolutely 110% retarded to sit him today. That's ridiculous. He's far too valuable of a player to sit vs LHP. And if Francona is going to platoon Craw against tough lefties, then that's a f***ing brutal contract.

[italstallianion]

Just so people are aware, the NFL Draft resumes with the 2nd and 3rd round tonight at 6pm, and the Patriots (barring a trade) have the first pick of the evening. I'm going to try and spur conversation on the topic to TalkPats, so I hope that you'd join us there.

[boston22407]

ill be there !

[DirtDog]

Red Sox 7-8-9 hitters tonight are hitting .352. That's not an average that's a summation.

[Palodios]

And for the record' date=' I think it's absolutely 110% retarded to sit him today. That's ridiculous. He's far too valuable of a player to sit vs LHP. And if Francona is going to platoon Craw against tough lefties, then that's a f***ing brutal contract.[/quote']

 

If Crawford wasn't completely struggling, his glove would be valuable enough to leave him in there. But this is a guy with a platoon split as-is, who is currently struggling more than pretty much every player in baseball. I think his confidence is going to get hurt more by going 0-4, than for him to take a day off.

[Palodios]

Just so people are aware' date=' the NFL Draft resumes with the 2nd and 3rd round tonight at 6pm, and the Patriots (barring a trade) have the first pick of the evening. I'm going to try and spur conversation on the topic to TalkPats, so I hope that you'd join us there.[/quote']

 

NWIH the Patriots keep that pick.

[Palodios]

NWIH the Patriots keep that pick.

 

Strange. I don't agree with that one either. Talkpats is dead.

[italstallianion]

Strange. I don't agree with that one either. Talkpats is dead.

 

 

Yeah, it's myself, 22407, and BruschiSmash at this point. I figured that SCM and WhiskeyBreath would show up eventually.

[Wasatch]

Again, between MLB Network and Comcast, I will not see a Redsox game in HD tonight. The f***n' Skanks were on at least 4 times this week, f***N' *******S! Go Redsox!

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's game time. f*** our differing opinions about Youkilis or Crawford. Lets just WIN!!!!!

[Wasatch]

Gammons just talking about Jacoby bunting more, like Remy use to do, would make him an elite player. Sounds good to me. Go Redsox!

[chrisohio1978]

that damn Prime commercial freaks me out

[boston22407]

Go Redsox!

[chrisohio1978]

have to win this game and we will new Avatars have brought us luck

[Palodios]

Olivo hitting 4th for Seattle? Damnit, I wish he was on this team.

[chrisohio1978]

fenway looks like yankee stadium at first pitch tonight

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Another one hitter would be nice Dice-K. Good to be back home.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ichiro is such a bitch of a hitter to face. He's insanely good.

[Wasatch]

I guess I missed it, where's Remy?

[Palodios]

Oh good, he got Ichiro. He can relax for 8 outs now.

[Wasatch]

C'mon DK

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Great job D-Mac.

[SoxFanForsyth]

well s***. Already?? Really?!?

[Palodios]

Surprise surprise.