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Spring Training Game Thread

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FredLynn Greenville Drive

FredLynn

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Posted
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Beckett lost velocity on his fastball? News to me, because his average fastball velocity last year was 93.5 MPH, down from 94.3 the two previous years, however, over the last two months, his velocity creeped up into an average of 94.1, so i have no clue where you came up with that info, good sir.

 

As for the Tomase article, it seems like more of a "It's Spring Training so there's nothing to write about". And it is, in fact, Spring Training, which is indicative of nothing.

 

Anyways, Beckett's stuff is still good, but his stamina seems to be lacking, and until he actually gets shelled in the regular season i won't declare him "one and done", because like everyone else here, i don't know the specifics of his throwing program, and i haven't seen any indication of worry from the team.

 

Try this graph for a better visual: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&pitch=FA

 

This clearly shows that in 2007, his only excellent year on the team, his fastball was pretty regularly 95 to 95+. Look at the trend downwards over the years. Also, look at the difference in velocity range; everything he threw in 2010 was in a pretty narrow range. It doesn't take much of a loss of velocity to morph from a power pitcher into something less than that. If he throws at 93 there is much less room for error.

I haven't seen fangraphs for ST yet. As the season progresses more data will be available.

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Dipre Worcester Red Sox

Dipre

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Try this graph for a better visual: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&pitch=FA

 

This clearly shows that in 2007, his only excellent year on the team, his fastball was pretty regularly 95 to 95+. Look at the trend downwards over the year. It doesn't take much of a loss of velocity to morph from a power pitcher into something less than that. If he throws at 93 there is much less room for error.

I haven't seen fangraphs for ST yet. As the season progresses more data will be available.

 

According to Fangraphs, in 2007, his average fastball velocity was 94.6:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=510&position=P

 

And 2009, by the way, was also an excellent year, in which he pitched with similar velocity to 2010.

FredLynn Greenville Drive

FredLynn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Another interesting graph on Beckett showing his HR/9 going up annually since 2007.

There is really no objective evidence that Beckett can turn it around. I sure hope he does, but as yet I don't see it happening. Whatever is ailing him is still ailing him. Maybe Curt Young can help him; he sure did a great job in Oakland.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&page=4&type=full

FredLynn Greenville Drive

FredLynn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
According to Fangraphs, in 2007, his average fastball velocity was 94.6:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=510&position=P

 

And 2009, by the way, was also an excellent year, in which he pitched with similar velocity to 2010.

 

I am not seeing the numerical values for average velocity here; probably blind. He did well in 09, but not as good as 07. I think his decline began in 07 (tough year to repeat) and the bottom fell out in 2010. Do you have his average velocity in 10 handy? Also, note the small difference in velocity range in 2010 compared to 07. If you change speeds on hitters it makes life a lot easier.

For a year now he hasn't shown evidence of pitching well; hopefully its forthcoming in April.

 

Edit: never mind. Got it. Average FB iin 2010 was 93.5, down a little over a mph from 07. In addition, the graph for 2010 shows that he rarely cranked it up to over 95 as opposed to 07.

Keeper First Round Pick

Keeper

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
But i do my back-patting after the fact has happened. Not in Spring Training of the Season before. Get my drift? :rolleyes:

 

My bad, I forgot I was talking to Dipre, who is never wrong about anything.

Dipre Worcester Red Sox

Dipre

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

You throwing a tantrum brah? That's for little kids!

 

I've been wrong about plenty of things, and that's exactly why i pat my back after i've been proven right. See, it's as easy as connect the dots!

Palodios Greenville Drive

Palodios

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Try this graph for a better visual: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&pitch=FA

 

This clearly shows that in 2007, his only excellent year on the team, his fastball was pretty regularly 95 to 95+. Look at the trend downwards over the years. Also, look at the difference in velocity range; everything he threw in 2010 was in a pretty narrow range. It doesn't take much of a loss of velocity to morph from a power pitcher into something less than that. If he throws at 93 there is much less room for error.

I haven't seen fangraphs for ST yet. As the season progresses more data will be available.

 

The 1 extra mph lost on his pitches is probably a result of injury, and I don't think its anything to worry about long term (outside of age-related regression). I'm no expert by any means, but I do not doubt that the small range of his velocity in 2010 influenced his results. I'm wondering if he's tried to keep his velocity high to overcompensate for his loss of movement in his pitches.

 

One interesting blip on the chart was his wild uncontrollable game against the Yankees, where he hit Cano/Jeter-- his average velocity is considerably higher, but his control went way down. I also found it interesting that he seemed to struggle the most against better hitting teams-- the most glaring of which was the Yankees. 1/6th of his innings were against the Yankees, but he gave up 1/3 of his runs in them. Take those out, and he's at a 4.69 ERA. When 5 of your 23 games are against the best hitting team in baseball, and 3 of them in Yankee Stadium, it does very little for your average or confidence. For some reason, this gives me the impression that a good deal of his problems are in his head.

boston22407 Salem RidgeYaks

boston22407

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Lineup: Ellsbury (CF Pedroia (2B Crawford (LF) Gonzalez (1B Youkilis (3B Ortiz (DH Drew (RF Saltalamacchia (C Scutaro (SSv Pitchers: Beckett, Reyes, Jenks, Bard, Papelbon.

 

i will be watching

snydersminipretzels College Ball

snydersminipretzels

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Lineup: Ellsbury (CF Pedroia (2B Crawford (LF) Gonzalez (1B Youkilis (3B Ortiz (DH Drew (RF Saltalamacchia (C Scutaro (SSv Pitchers: Beckett, Reyes, Jenks, Bard, Papelbon.

 

i will be watching

 

I don't mean to be rude, but how did you come up with this?

boston22407 Salem RidgeYaks

boston22407

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I don't mean to be rude' date=' but how did you come up with this?[/quote']

 

some guy on facebook

posted it ,he post all time about boston sports

boston22407 Salem RidgeYaks

boston22407

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I'm sorry. I thought you were posting the lineup for tomorrow's game.

 

no its for tonight's game (HINT) this is in the spring training game thread

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