Are the Sox actually vulnerable to LHP? The debate.

[Palodios]

There has been a lot of talk about how this team will fare against left-handed pitching. So, I figured it might be worth putting things into perspective with how this team hits against left-handed pitching. So, I’ll throw out OPS splits for 2010/2009/2008/Career. Obviously other stats may apply, so if anyone wants to add them to the discussion, that’d work too.

 

For the sake of analysis, let's keep in mind that the Yankee's 2010 Team OPS was .786.

 

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Ellsbury|x|.785|.728|.752

Pedroia|.700|.765|.903|.806

A-gon|.937|.770|.675|.783

Youkilis|1.311|.953|1.009|.926

Ortiz|.599|.716|.740|.795

Drew|.611|.863|.926|.780

Cameron|x|.954|.951|.868

Lowrie|x|x|x|.944

Varitek|x|.807|.863|.829

[/table]

 

And the bench.

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Crawford|.696|.704|.641|.697

Scutaro|.743|.809|.732|.738

Saltamacchia|x|.657|.443|.592

Kalish|.599|x|x|.599[/table]

 

 

From a quick glance it seems like this team will be absolutely fine against lefties. However, considering that 4 of the players used in starting roles here (Tek, Ortiz, Drew, Cameron) are probably going to see declines. Lowrie obviously will not keep up his numbers. Catcher definitely is a scary position against LHH, and DH could be a problem as well.

 

More from me later.

[italstallianion]

I think if we got a right handed bat, someone that's a cheap specialist, I think we'd be in great shape. I'm not saying Darnell McDonald, but I'd be ok if we did get him.

[Dojji]

Lowrie obviously will not keep up his numbers..

 

I don't think it's quite that obvious. I agree that just predicting him to maintain it would be silly, but on the other hand the kid has a very good offensive pedigree and has always been regarded as a shortstop with significant offensive potential -- or as a 2B with same.

 

People accuse me of overselling Lowrie at .800 OPS. My firm opinion is that if he puts it together this year, and stays healthy, that's his floor, and we go up from there.

[Keeper]

Drew and Gonzalez have held their own against lefties. Ortiz held his own, too, before the previous 2 seasons, but it's safe to say he's now vulnerable. Crawford and Ortiz are the only guys I would worry about against LHP. Salty will likely grab some pine when they face lefties. That's why they brought Tek back.

[Dipre]

Ortiz and Drew couldn't possibly be worse against LHP if they tried. I actually expect Drew to somewhat improve against lefties, since he's always hit them relatively well and last year seemed pretty at odds with his usual production, specially OBP-wise.

 

There's no reason why Cameron wouldn't perform right at least around his career numbers against lefties (if healthy) taking advantage of Fenway.

 

If Tito's smart, he plays Cameron instead of Ortiz against lefties, and that leaves you with three lefties, and only one of them (Crawford) is particularly weak against LHP.

 

Why do i play Crawford instead of Ortiz against lefties you ask? Quite simple, if you ask me, since Ortiz is basically a singles hitter against lefties anyway, why not take advantage of Crawford's speed on the basepaths when he does get on base?

 

I'd conclude that the Sox are a bit weaker than in recent seasons against LHP, but they can hold their own.

[Dipre]

I don't think it's quite that obvious. I agree that just predicting him to maintain it would be silly, but on the other hand the kid has a very good offensive pedigree and has always been regarded as a shortstop with significant offensive potential -- or as a 2B with same.

 

People accuse me of overselling Lowrie at .800 OPS. My firm opinion is that if he puts it together this year, and stays healthy, that's his floor, and we go up from there.

 

He had a 1.023 OPS against lefties last year. If you expect him to continue that and not be called out on overselling, you're nuts.

[Dojji]

I don't think it's quite that obvious. I agree that just predicting him to maintain it would be silly' date='[/b'] but on the other hand the kid has a very good offensive pedigree and has always been regarded as a shortstop with significant offensive potential -- or as a 2B with same.

 

People accuse me of overselling Lowrie at .800 OPS. My firm opinion is that if he puts it together this year, and stays healthy, that's his floor, and we go up from there.

 

My posting style isn't particularly nuanced, Dipre. It's not that hard to follow along with me if you're willing to commit to a bit of basic reading comprehension.

 

I don't expect him to mash lefties like that or put up a .900 OPS. I'm just saying, don't rule it out entirely. He has all the raw talent he'd need to hit at a very high level, the only question is is he gonna put it together this year? Remember, this is a guy who was a contemporary of Pedroia and considered just about as talented before the injury parade started, I see no reason why we can't hope for John Valentin type numbers out of him through his prime.

[BSN07]

Ortiz and Drew couldn't possibly be worse against LHP if they tried. I actually expect Drew to somewhat improve against lefties, since he's always hit them relatively well and last year seemed pretty at odds with his usual production, specially OBP-wise.

 

There's no reason why Cameron wouldn't perform right at least around his career numbers against lefties (if healthy) taking advantage of Fenway.

 

If Tito's smart, he plays Cameron instead of Ortiz against lefties, and that leaves you with three lefties, and only one of them (Crawford) is particularly weak against LHP.

 

Why do i play Crawford instead of Ortiz against lefties you ask? Quite simple, if you ask me, since Ortiz is basically a singles hitter against lefties anyway, why not take advantage of Crawford's speed on the basepaths when he does get on base?

 

I'd conclude that the Sox are a bit weaker than in recent seasons against LHP, but they can hold their own.

 

I would agree, but we both now it won't happen 100% of the time. Ortiz would have major issues being platooned all the time. I've said it before, sit Ortiz against top tier LHP. Leave him in vs the middle tier Lefty's and that should keep him happy. Cameron can grab some AB's from one of the LH OF's when facing middle tier LHP.

[SoxSport]

Well, they dodged a bullet with Lee--at least until the World Series. It might not make a difference.

With the Phillies starting rotation, they will be tough to beat against any team in the playoffs. Barring injuries of course. Halliday pulled a groin in the playoffs last year, which contributed to the Philles' downfall against the Giants.

 

I think they should be allright. When Papi was hitting left handers, he and Nixon used to kill the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Damon, too. This lineup has even better LHd hitting, and it's bound to help in Yankee stadium, regardless of who is pitching against them. It's really all about beating the Yankees. They have 19? games against them. Crawford and AdGon will help, not hurt, in Yankee stadium.

[jacksonianmarch]

There has been a lot of talk about how this team will fare against left-handed pitching. So, I figured it might be worth putting things into perspective with how this team hits against left-handed pitching. So, I’ll throw out OPS splits for 2010/2009/2008/Career. Obviously other stats may apply, so if anyone wants to add them to the discussion, that’d work too.

 

For the sake of analysis, let's keep in mind that the Yankee's 2010 Team OPS was .786.

 

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Ellsbury|x|.785|.728|.752

Pedroia|.700|.765|.903|.806

A-gon|.937|.770|.675|.783

Youkilis|1.311|.953|1.009|.926

Ortiz|.599|.716|.740|.795

Drew|.611|.863|.926|.780

Cameron|x|.954|.951|.868

Lowrie|x|x|x|.944

Varitek|x|.807|.863|.829

[/table]

 

And the bench.

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Crawford|.696|.704|.641|.697

Scutaro|.743|.809|.732|.738

Saltamacchia|x|.657|.443|.592

Kalish|.599|x|x|.599[/table]

 

 

From a quick glance it seems like this team will be absolutely fine against lefties. However, considering that 4 of the players used in starting roles here (Tek, Ortiz, Drew, Cameron) are probably going to see declines. Lowrie obviously will not keep up his numbers. Catcher definitely is a scary position against LHH, and DH could be a problem as well.

 

More from me later.

 

You are using career numbers when Drew and Ortiz have fallen off the map against lefties over the past few seasons and Crawford is coming off an abysmal season against them.

 

Here is your lefties OPS' against lefties over the last 3 seasons

 

Crawford- .684 (.696 in 2010)

Gonzalez- .787 (.937 in 2010)

Ortiz- .674 (.599 in 2010)

Drew- .767 (.611 in 2010)

Ellsbury- .748 (career .749 OPS)

 

Ellsbury is the only guy who doesnt have a massive split difference. Gonzo is the only guy to have reversed the split last year. Crawford, Drew, and Ortiz were useless vs lefties last season. And without Victor, who absolutely abused lefties, you will be lefty vulnerable this upcoming season. Which is why you have to keep Cameron and are still looking for a righty utility bat to use in late inning situations

[SoxSport]

There has been a lot of talk about how this team will fare against left-handed pitching. So, I figured it might be worth putting things into perspective with how this team hits against left-handed pitching. So, I’ll throw out OPS splits for 2010/2009/2008/Career. Obviously other stats may apply, so if anyone wants to add them to the discussion, that’d work too.

 

For the sake of analysis, let's keep in mind that the Yankee's 2010 Team OPS was .786.

 

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Ellsbury|x|.785|.728|.752

Pedroia|.700|.765|.903|.806

A-gon|.937|.770|.675|.783

Youkilis|1.311|.953|1.009|.926

Ortiz|.599|.716|.740|.795

Drew|.611|.863|.926|.780

Cameron|x|.954|.951|.868

Lowrie|x|x|x|.944

Varitek|x|.807|.863|.829

[/table]

 

And the bench.

[table]Player|2010 OPS|2009 OPS |2008 OPS |Career OPS

Crawford|.696|.704|.641|.697

Scutaro|.743|.809|.732|.738

Saltamacchia|x|.657|.443|.592

Kalish|.599|x|x|.599[/table]

 

 

From a quick glance it seems like this team will be absolutely fine against lefties. However, considering that 4 of the players used in starting roles here (Tek, Ortiz, Drew, Cameron) are probably going to see declines. Lowrie obviously will not keep up his numbers. Catcher definitely is a scary position against LHH, and DH could be a problem as well.

 

More from me later.

 

What's also important are the LHH stats in Yankee stadium. Crawford, for example, has lifetime OPS of .831 and .350 BA there. In Fenway, it is .782 and .324. Hits well both parks, better in Yankee stadium with the short RF porch.

[Palodios]

You are using career numbers when Drew and Ortiz have fallen off the map against lefties over the past few seasons and Crawford is coming off an abysmal season against them.

 

Err, did you actually look at the chart?

[jacksonianmarch]

Sorry, just woke up.

 

But you are operating under the premise that Crawford is a platoon player, which is 100% off. I would assume Drew would be splitting time with Cameron. Plus, I doubt Lowrie continues the .900+OPS vs lefties out of such a small sample size. Regardless, I think the sox end up being lefty vulnerable in a lefty dominated league, but vulnerable is a relative term. Instead of scoring 5.5 runs per game , they might only score 5.0 vs lefties

[Dojji]

We have a good power hitting RHH OF who's going to be on our bench this year unless we move Cameron. Crawford isn't strictly a platoon guy, but he doesn't have to be in order to be sitting against the very toughest lefthanders. We always do that with a guy with platoon struggles, if we have a strong platoon hitter on the bench. That doesn't make Crawford a "platoon player," that's just you overstressing a mismatch to make it sound more significant.

[a700hitter]

Sorry, just woke up.

 

But you are operating under the premise that Crawford is a platoon player, which is 100% off. I would assume Drew would be splitting time with Cameron. Plus, I doubt Lowrie continues the .900+OPS vs lefties out of such a small sample size. Regardless, I think the sox end up being lefty vulnerable in a lefty dominated league, but vulnerable is a relative term. Instead of scoring 5.5 runs per game , they might only score 5.0 vs lefties

I think Cameron will be splitting time with Ellsbury and Drew depending on the matchups. He will also be taking some ABs for Ortiz. In those cases, Drew might be the DH.

 

I think last season's performance against lefties was exacerbated by the fact that the top RH hitters were DL'd for big parts of the season. With the big righties out of the lineup, Drew and Ortiz were really worked over by the lefties. They never had to give in to Drew or Ortiz, because they didn't have a lot of protection behind them. In 2011, if Terry drops them in the order against lefties, they will still not have much protection behind them, but they should be batting with more runners on base in front of them than they did in 2010. That will put more pressure on the pitchers causing more mistakes.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Sorry, just woke up.

 

But you are operating under the premise that Crawford is a platoon player, which is 100% off. I would assume Drew would be splitting time with Cameron. Plus, I doubt Lowrie continues the .900+OPS vs lefties out of such a small sample size. Regardless, I think the sox end up being lefty vulnerable in a lefty dominated league, but vulnerable is a relative term. Instead of scoring 5.5 runs per game , they might only score 5.0 vs lefties

 

How is it a lefty dominated league? A player will face a LH maybe 25% of the time? So 75% of the time this lineup will absolutely annihilate pitchers and the other 25% it will be well above average. No problem here

[Dipre]

My posting style isn't particularly nuanced, Dipre. It's not that hard to follow along with me if you're willing to commit to a bit of basic reading comprehension.

 

I don't expect him to mash lefties like that or put up a .900 OPS. I'm just saying, don't rule it out entirely. He has all the raw talent he'd need to hit at a very high level, the only question is is he gonna put it together this year? Remember, this is a guy who was a contemporary of Pedroia and considered just about as talented before the injury parade started, I see no reason why we can't hope for John Valentin type numbers out of him through his prime.

 

Actually, it is.

 

You say that you don't "expect him to maintain it" then make the point about his offensive pedigree or whatnot, which is absolute ********.

 

It takes 20 seconds to go and check his minor overall stats and see that his offensive ceiling is not nearly as high as you paint it to be.

 

It's not that i don't like the kid, it's that i like to live in reality. (I'll be mentioning reality several times throughout the post so you can get the hang on the concept).

 

Let's see if my reading comprehension skills are correct:

 

"John Valentin" type numbers amirite? That is possible. But not a given, he has the OBP skills to do, but averaging 18 HR a year? Color me skeptical.

 

Pedroia is not a good comparison (using regular logic at least):

 

Dustin Pedroia minor league OPS: .844

 

Jed Lowrie minor league OPS: .825.

 

And this is where you say "wait a minute, those numbers are really similar!"

 

Until you notice that Pedroia was younger at every minor league level than Lowrie.

The problem with your "posting style" is that while you sometimes set realistic parameters for the players you like to hype (which are many, and usually flameouts, Hunter Jones comes to mind) but you make absolutely out of this world predictions about what their actual talent levels and possible production could be. Lowrie has a "good" not "great" offensive toolset. He has excellent OBP skills, but has never flashed the power (except in an SSS last year) that you hype him for. Maybe you set the "Power vs LHP" bar a bit too high in MLB The Show '10, and simulated it through a whole season? :dunno:

 

 

If you make the effort to live in reality, the "basic reading comprehension" (which you don't seem to do before you post your usual dabble) will become a whole lot easier.

[Dipre]

How is it a lefty dominated league? A player will face a LH maybe 25% of the time? So 75% of the time this lineup will absolutely annihilate pitchers and the other 25% it will be well above average. No problem here

 

Did you expect anything else?

 

Also, i don't why Drew (whose 2010 against LHP is nothing short of an outlier) can't return to a decent level of production against lefties. He had a .262 BABIP against them last year, and his BB% was 5% lower than it has been at any point during the last five years.

 

Maybe he needs some magical pinstripes? 'cause if he was a Yankee, i'm pretty sure we would have already heard about how this year was a fluke and he was sure to do better next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

There are a higher concentration of good lefties in the AL East than in most other leagues, even without Lee. Assuming Pettitte returns...

 

NYY- CC, Pettitte

TOR- Romero, Cecil

BAL- Matusz

TB- Price

 

It does come out to about 30% of the time, which is still significant. And you figure the Yankees and the Rays will be manuevering their rotation to allow their lefties to lineup with Boston on a regular basis

[SoxFanForsyth]

Did you expect anything else?

 

Also, i don't why Drew (whose 2010 against LHP is nothing short of an outlier) can't return to a decent level of production against lefties. He had a .262 BABIP against them last year, and his BB% was 5% lower than it has been at any point during the last five years.

 

Maybe he needs some magical pinstripes? 'cause if he was a Yankee, i'm pretty sure we would have already heard about how this year was a fluke and he was sure to do better next year.

 

See: Curtis Granderson. My dear God. If I have to hear about how Granderson is going to turn it around next year and how 2010 was a fluke again, I'm going to s*** my pants. Seriously. I will. I don't joke about that.

 

Drew, who is a career .255 hitter vs LHP, will get better this year even if it's by accident. Hitting .208 vs LHP is ridiculous for him. He should be around .245-.250 vs LHP, not great but a huge improvement. Next year, I expect him to be around the .260+ clip, as he will be platooned with Cam vs tough lefties (i.e. Price, CC, etc).

 

He should be at around his career numbers next year, especially since he's going to miss the tough lefties next year, which will compensate for any regression he achieved last year.

 

I would say .280/.390/.500/.890 with 20 HR and 65 RBI's is a reasonable expectation, and pretty consistent with his 2009 numbers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Granderson was terrible vs lefties until the last 2 months of the year when Long altered his swing.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You mean August - the end of the season? Because he hit .245 in the last 2 months of the year (.245/.338/.521/.859) I don't think that's really turning it around, he still only hit .245.

[jacksonianmarch]

He hit for a ton more power. But no, I am talking about vs lefties. I dont have the number, but towards the end of August, he started hitting lefties well which was strange since he usually cannot touch them.